Georgia and the Russian invasions/annexations/Lebensraum (2008 & 2015)

[meni0n]

Now I challenge you to ask yourself, if Canada was peacekeeping in a conflict zone and Canadian peacekeepers came under blatant artilery fire by one of the sides, as well as the fire against the other side you are supposed to be seperating, would you not support a Canadian Forces response and would you even think about blaming the Canadians for the escalation?

Already happend and we did not invade another country over it. I read over the UNSC transcripts, and the Georgians give a clear and detailed account of what happend before their intervention. Russia does nothing but throw accusations around. Russian "peacekeepers" had a mandate in SO, not attacking Georgian ports, airports and infrastructure.

 

[tomahawk6]

Where does Georgia go from here ?
I think they need to expand their army to be able to defend themselves from future Russian invasion.
They need to form some kind of alliance with their non-Russian neighbors as they are all in the same boat.
Their air defenses gave a pretty good account of themselves but the air force needs to be greatly expanded. In the end more troops,more armored vehicles and fortifications may help in a future conflict with Russia.

 

[vonGarvin]

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08122008...gue_124032.htm

RUSSIA GOES ROGUE

. . . AND AMERICA WIMPS OUT


IT'S impossible to overstate the importance of what's un folding as we watch. Russia's invasion of Georgia - a calculated, unprovoked aggression - is a crisis that may have more important strategic implications than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

May have been calculated (Contingency plan, deliberate plan), but I don't buy "unprovoked".

We're seeing the emergence of a rogue military power with a nuclear arsenal.
The response of our own government has been pathetic - and our media's uncritical acceptance of Moscow's version of events is infuriating.

I think that Western media has been, by and large, anti-Russian if anything.  Heck, they don't even accept Canada's version of events in Afghanistan at face value in many cases.

Let's be clear: For all that US commentators and diplomats are still chattering about Russia's "response" to Georgia's actions, the Kremlin spent months planning and preparing this operation. Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions.

I call "BS" to that.  Whereas we have pretty good drills at section and platoon level, so too do the Russians: up to Division level.  For example, tell Division "x" that it's three objective lines on a map are here, here and here, and all that division has to do is "fire and forget" its various elements, starting with the Div Recce Bn, Regt Recce Coys, Combat Recce Patrols, and so forth.  As for "action on contact", it's fairly straightforward.  "Fix and Turn" as they used to say...

The Russians also managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets.

"Instant Appearance?"  Those ships are at sea, the Black Sea, a few hours steaming time from Georgia at best?  As for pre-planned targets, again, contingency planning on their part (see "Frunze Academy") and all they would have to do is dust off "plan 9 from the Caucasus" and away they go...

Every one of these things required careful preparations. In the words of one US officer, "Just to line up the airlift sorties would've taken weeks."

Maybe for us it would.  The Russians are pretty good at massing forces and then "launching" them.

Make no mistake: Moscow intends to dismember Georgia.

Perhaps.  

This attack's worse, though. Georgia is an independent, functioning democracy tied to the European Union and striving to join NATO. It also has backed our Iraq efforts with 2,000 troops. (We're airlifting them back home.)
This invasion recalls Hitler's march into Czechoslovakia - to protect ethnic Germans, he claimed, just as Putin claims to be protecting Russian citizens - complete BS.

Or as we rushed in to Serbia to protect ethnic Kosovars?  Not defending the Russians' motives here, but things aren't all black and white here, I suspect.

It also resembles Hitler's invasion of Poland - with the difference that, in September '39, European democracies drew the line. (To France's credit, its leaders abandoned their August vacations to call Putin out - only Sen. Barack Obama remains on the beach.)

Reductio ad Hitlerum

RUSSIA's military is succeeding in its invasion of Georgia, but only because Moscow has applied overwhelming force.

 Well, it is the Russian Way of waging war.  

This campaign was supposed to be the big debut for the Kremlin's revitalized armed forces (funded by the country's new petro-wealth). Well, the new Russian military looks a lot like the old Russian military: slovenly and not ready for prime time.

Dangerous thinking that....The Russian Armed Forces may have several problems, but in one area (at least), they are good at attacking.  Very good.

All those strikes on civilian apartment buildings and other non-military targets? Some may be intentional (the Russians aren't above terror-bombing), but most are just the result of ill-trained pilots flying scared.

 Admittedely, this whole mess flared up big time when the Georgians shelled Tskhinvali.  Anyway, We (the Royal We, eg: the West) certainly used Terror bombing before (eg: 1942-1945), thankfully, we've evolved.  Hopefully both sides "over there" will also evolve.

Russia's also losing aircraft. The Kremlin admits two were shot down; the Georgians claimed they'd downed a dozen by Sunday. Split the difference, and you have seven or more Russian aircraft knocked out of the sky by a tiny enemy. Compare that to US Air Force losses - statistically zero - in combat in all of our wars since Desert Storm.

I think Mr. Peters forgets this

Russia has been planning and organizing this invasion for months. And they're pulling it off - but the military's embarrassing blunders must be infuriating Prime Minister Putin.

I don't know if PM Putin is infuriated.  Even if Russia has lost say 12 aircraft, and given that most of those missions would be low-level, let's not forget that the Georgians aren't a bunch of numbskulls (for lack of a better term).  From all accounts, the Georgian military is quite capable, and is well-equipped with Soviet-style equipment.  They may have a small armed forces (puny compared to Russia), but it is potent.

Anyway, this is madness.  Georgia picking on the Russian-backed Ossetians.  Russia picking on the Western-backed Georgians.  I seriously hope that it ends very soon, and that cooler heads will prevail.

IMHO, Ralph Peters is not one of them.

 

[lennoj]

Let's be clear: For all that US commentators and diplomats are still chattering about Russia's "response" to Georgia's actions, the Kremlin spent months planning and preparing this operation. Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions.
As I pointed out Saturday, even to get one armored brigade over the Caucasus Mountains required extensive preparations. Since then, Russia has sent in the equivalent of almost two divisions - not only in South Ossetia, the scene of the original fighting, but also in separatist Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast.

The Russians also managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets.

Every one of these things required careful preparations. In the words of one US officer, "Just to line up the airlift sorties would've taken weeks."
Working through their mercenaries in South Ossetia, Russia staged brutal provocations against Georgia from late July onward. Last Thursday, Georgia's president finally had to act to defend his own people.
But when the mouse stirred, the cat pounced.
The Russians know that we know this was a setup. But Moscow's Big Lie propagandists still blame Georgia - even as Russian aircraft bomb Georgian homes and Russian troops seize the vital city of Gori in the country's heart. And Russian troops also grabbed the Georgian city of Zugdidi to the west - invading from Abkhazia on a second axis.

The article, although heavily empathic, suggests good intelligence on the Russians behave. What I enjoy about this particular article is the cadence in the writing style. It started out strong in an accusing fashion then subsided half way through with recognizing that the Georgian’s have some blame as well.

Yet our media give Putin the benefit of the doubt. Not one major news outlet even bothers to take issue with Putin's wild claim that the Georgians were engaged in genocide.

And again good CYA principals.

Russia's also losing aircraft. The Kremlin admits two were shot down; the Georgians claimed they'd downed a dozen by Sunday. Split the difference, and you have seven or more Russian aircraft knocked out of the sky by a tiny enemy. Compare that to US Air Force losses - statistically zero - in combat in all of our wars since Desert Storm.

This is rather misleading. Check the stats on the American loses. Last year alone they lost several helicopters, and March 2003 lost 4 aircraft during The Shock and Awe.

The Russians like any other country which relies on intel before marching in, had the pro active measures in place for such an event with a potential enemy state sitting on one of its many boarders. To declare Russia as gone “Rogue” is ludicrous and has undermined the articles author.

The fact that the Russians have gone further then SO in their quest to “assist the people of SO” against the “aggressors’” is the only questionable thing in my mind about their actions. I agree on their side that it was the right thing to go in after their peacekeepers came under fire and when SO asked for assistance from its big brother.

I like to refer to this conflict as a chess game, what are the Russian intentions for 3-5 years down the road? It is not a question of what happened, but what are their intentions for later on, other then what they stated simply as “we wanted to help out our cousin Boris in SO.”(that’s a pun – not factual ) This is what eludes me in a general sense…Would this be a message of some sort or just showing the world it still has a military might?

/End opinion…

*EDIT: Quote error

 

[vonGarvin]

Where does Georgia go from here ?
I think they need to expand their army to be able to defend themselves from future Russian invasion.
They need to form some kind of alliance with their non-Russian neighbors as they are all in the same boat.
Their air defenses gave a pretty good account of themselves but the air force needs to be greatly expanded. In the end more troops,more armored vehicles and fortifications may help in a future conflict with Russia.

Personally I think that have to realise that just as Poland waited in vain for help in 1939, none is coming for them.  They must first sue for peace, and then resort to political methods to solve the issues of South Ossetia and elsewhere.
As for an alliance with other former Soviet Republics, that may be a very good idea for them.

 

[oligarch]

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080810/115933126.html


Peacekeepers say Georgian forces shelling apartments in S.Ossetia

MOSCOW, August 10 (RIA Novosti) - Russian peacekeepers in Georgia's breakaway republic of South Ossetia said on Sunday that Georgian forces remain in the region, and are shelling apartment blocks in the capital.

Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili earlier said Georgian forces had fully withdrawn from the separatist province.

A spokesman for the peacekeeping command told RIA Novosti: "This statement is a lie, just like [Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili's statement on the impossibility of using military force in conflict zones."

Russian and South Ossetian officials say around 2,000 of the province's residents have been killed since Georgia began its ground and air offensive on South Ossetia on Friday.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who visited Russia's North Ossetia, where thousands of refugees from the Georgian province are being housed, called the killings an act of genocide.

At a meeting with refugees at a makeshift hospital camp in Alagir on Saturday, eyewitnesses told the premier how Georgian troops had set fire to a house with several young women inside.

"They were rounded up like cattle, shut into the house, and set on fire. In another place, we saw a tank run over an old woman who was running away with two children. We saw how they slashed up an 18-month child," a refugee said.

Putin told the gathering: "This is full-scale genocide... They have completely lost their minds."

Speaking at a conference in the North Ossetian city of Vladikavkaz, Putin called Georgia's actions "a crime first and foremost against their own people."

Russia's retaliation is "absolutely justified and legitimate from a legal point of view," he said.

Georgia launched a major ground and air offensive to seize control of South Ossetia on Friday, prompting Russia to send in tanks and hundreds of troops. Georgia imposed martial law on Saturday after Russian warplanes began bombarding military bases. South Ossetia's capital Tskhinvali has been largely destroyed in the violence.

After returning to Moscow on Sunday, Putin said Russia's government will provide $10 billion rubles ($420 million) in aid for South Ossetia.

 

[Snafu-Bar]

Well Georgia is in a damned if they do or don't situation. One hand they are being forced to let South Ossetia break away to Russia, and on the other stand thier ground on keeping thier own soveriengty stable and Russian free.

In the end i think they are only going to have one option, and that is to let the Ossetian's go thier own route and that may mean the encroachment of the Russian boarder.

 

[vonGarvin]

IMHO, Ralph Peters is not one of them.

And here is his proposed solution to the problems in the Middle East:

Anyway, I don't know much about Mr. Peters, though I have his book "Red Army", and I thoroughly enjoyed it.

 

[tomahawk6]

Peters bio:
Peters enlisted in the Army as a private soldier in 1976, after graduation from Pennsylvania State University.[1] He served with 1st Battalion - 46th Infantry Regiment, then part of the 1st Armored Division,[2] and attained the rank of sergeant. He was commissioned in 1980.[3][4] He spent ten years in Germany working in military intelligence. Years later, during the 2004 Killian documents controversy, Peters pointed out that in his front-line division in 1977, five years after the memos in question were allegedly written, only the general's secretary had an electric typewriter. It was, he says, too primitive to produce the documents in question, and moreover, National Guard units "…got the junk we didn't want."

After returning from Germany, Peters attended Officer Candidate School and received a commission, eventually attending the Command and General Staff College, and still later graduated from the U.S. Army War College, in Carlisle, Pennsylvania. His last assignment was to the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence. He retired in 1998 with the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.

 

[oligarch]

Tskhinvali after the first shelling – eyewitness video
RIA Novosti correspondent Alan Tsorion spent the night of August 7 in Tskhinvali. He spent almost the whole of the following day sheltering in a basement of an apartment building with other civilians. Only in the evening did he have a chance to leave his shelter and take pictures of the city after the night attack.


http://en.rian.ru/video/20080811/115958937.html

 

[oligarch]

http://en.rian.ru/photolents/20080812/115971545.html

 

[George Wallace]

http://en.rian.ru/photolents/20080812/115971545.html

Are you going to comment or just post a link that will probably disappear in two days?

 

[vonGarvin]

Information is power
President of Georgia's Website
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Georgia)
President of Russia's Website
Ministry of Foreign Affairs(Russia)
All sites in English, and certainly some slanted information there.  Given time, someone could sift through the mess and see some stuff admitted to on both sides that match.
EDIT:
Here is a site with fairly comprehensive coverage.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I suspect that all of the border states will be reviewing their defence plans. I suspect focus on fortifications, ATGM’s, good all round AD and minefields. They now realize that Europe will do nothing but bleat. Ukraine will have a hard time to defend itself as it has little in the way of defensible terrain.

 

[oligarch]

To follow up once again on MY media comments.

In one of its news bulletins CNN has shown Russian tanks and ruined buildings which they claimed are in the Georgian town of Gori. Russian cameraman of the Russian TV channel, who did the footage in reality in South Ossetian city of Tskhinvali says CNN aired footage of Tskhinvali district close to former Russian peacekeepers headquarters, nearly all of them were killed by Georgians after the footage was made.

LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVNblG9PJMk

-----

On another note, Georgian troops firing at refugees: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhFPcNxybIs

 

[vonGarvin]

I suspect that all of the border states will be reviewing their defence plans. I suspect focus on fortifications, ATGM’s, good all round AD and minefields. They now realize that Europe will do nothing but bleat. Ukraine will have a hard time to defend itself as it has little in the way of defensible terrain.

The Dnepr River is pretty good, of course, they'd have to give up half their territory. 

 

[tomahawk6]

I thought it was instructive that the Russians made good use of Chechen special forces.
If Ukraine were attacked they would also see Russian troops striking from Belarus. I hate to say it small professional armies just dont cut it when you have to face 100,000 invaders or more. The best defense for Poland,the Ukraine and others is large well equiped and trained ground forces supported by modern air forces and air defenses. You want to let the Russians know that the Russians will pay a heavy price for regime change.

 

[tomahawk6]

Ajara may be the next Russian target according to Debka.The return of the Russians to its base at Batumi would be a serious blow to Georgia and a threat to Turkey.Georgia isnt a NATO country but Turkey is and if they enter the war then things could get very interesting for NATO.

 

[Kirkhill]

Interestingly enough the Dniepr has acted as the barrier between Orthodox and Catholic, Scandinavian Boatmen and Steppes Horsemen as well as Gene Pools.  A permeable barrier it has been but still enough of a barrier to create two distinctive cultural groups.

And T6 - EVERYBODY, Euros especially, will be relying on the USAF to "stem the hordes".  So we all better hope that the sand and salt haven't taken too much of a toll on your aircraft in the last few years.

 

[tomahawk6]

There's an interesting analysis at thedonovan about the importance of C. Ossetia.Its a good read.

http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/08/why_not_ossetia.html