daftandbarmy said:
Why does the 'future tank' have to be different from the most excellent Leo II or Abrams?
An excellent vehicle could just be made cheaper in some way through continuous improvement, and then we can buy more of them. Quantity (of a quality item) has a Quality all of its own.
Future tanks can indeed be made by continuous improvements (the T-90 is essentially a T-72 after decades of incremental improvements), but you eventually reach the point of diminishing returns.
Future tanks will need to be built with signature reduction in mind, to diminish the effectiveness of a wide variety of guided munitions, using a multitude of guidance systems (everything from millimetre wave radar to thermal imagery). They will need to be protected from threats in a 3600 arc, as well as from top attack munitions and mines and IED's. They will need to have active defense systems integrated into the vehicle, not just bolted on the roof.
Tactically, they will need to deal with a wide variety of threats and be able to operate in complex terrain. This will involve more on board sensors with much higher degrees of fidelity and also covering the entire field of view. Future tanks should also be able to accept target information from off board sensors, and hand off their target information. Tanks will also need to have weapons systems capable of operating in complex terrain, as a minimum prosecuting high angle engagements against enemy soldiers on rooftops and UAV/UCAV's.
Operationally and strategically, there is a lot to be said for making tanks lighter, so they can be transported more quickly and in greater numbers to distant theaters, and move quickly and efficiently between places in theater, without having such a huge logistics trail.
While it
may be possible to achieve these goals with existing tank designs, I would think the level of modification would be so great that building an entirely new vehicle from the ground up will be far more cost effective. A turret with a high angle gun mount and integrated active defense system would be essentially an all new turret, and logistics improvements would require an all new powerpack and suspension, essentially creating about 3/4 of a new tank already. The Polish WB-10, and the Serbian M-20UP-1 are examples of this approach (the Polish tank is based on a CV90120, while the Serbian tank seems to be a heavily modified T-90 or M-84 chassis), while the T-14 Armata is a ground up design with many of the desired features integrated into the design.
The modification of a Leopard II or M-1 could be done for the same effect, but I doubt it would be effectively cheaper than a "Leopard III" or a "M-2025".