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Fighting & Winning The Global War on Terror (WW IV)

2008, Condeleeza Vs Hillary; who cares who the VP's are.

This is actually important, since WW IV has certain similarities to the 30 years war rather than WWII. The message of the
Jihadis is as terrible and all encompassing as that of the National Socialists in the 1930's, and there is no compromise or concession that will stay their hands: http://victorhanson.com/articles/hippolito111404.html

There will be outbreaks of fighting in the Middle East Theater of Operations, as well as many smaller subsidiary battles outside. It will take a long time to wear down the Jihadis, dismantle their recruiting and training structure, change Middle Eastern political cultures, and ultimately, kill off the true believers who will not surrender or change. This war will be going on past 2008, and we may still be reading about actions in 2015, without realizing this is still part of WW IV.

In the old days, the King kept the war going until he either gained his war aims, was killed, died, or realized he had run out of resources. In a Republic, the "King" can be changed by popular mandate, so even if the war is not successfully brought to a close, there could be a change in government in '08, '12 or '16 which allows the surviving Jihadis time to regroup and seek revenge. This isn't the way we are taught or trained to think about war.

If demographic and cultural shifts are as solid as some Republican commentators are suggesting, and the Democrats continue to play victim but be unable to articulate a realistic set of policies that appeal to the American people, then the United States is set to continue the fight for the forseeable future
 
MissMolsenIndy, I'd be interested in filling out your questionnaire. I might not be as eloquent, or long winded, as some of the posters here, but I may have different insights as a former CF member who has lived in the US for six years and whose views are definitely to the left of the majority of the posters I've read here. I'm at dmacdoug@fccsc.org
 
More evidence of Iranian complicity in destabilizing Iraq: http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/041122/usnews/22iran.htm

This sort of provocation, coupled with their nuclear ambitions will probably lead to direct confrontation by US forces in the region. I would be so bold as to suggest this might be a good thing in the long run, since knocking our Iran would take out one of the biggest supporters of the terrorist network, and further splinter and demoralize the Jihadi movement. This would mean paying a bigger "up front" cost, rather than drag the war out for two or three more administrations.
 
Well although I don't disagree with disarming Iran so to speak, it would most definately NOT be a cakewalk to invade that country. They have a much better equipped military and stronger trained force than Iraq did. Larger too. The US hasn't seen casualties yet until they try and invade that country... Not to say they wouldn't win but they would pay for it in the warm blood of thier soldiers. Plus, who then can afford to run that country too? I believe the American taxpayer won't be happy about that. They also won't be happy with going through another war, there are some seriously pissed off people living south of the border about Iraq as it is, nevermind another front...

Anyway, we'll see what happens won't we!
:cdn:
 
They'll eventually have to get to Cuba as well. They have been a thorn in the side for too long
 
Invade Cuba? Bad move. I think they're just waiting for Castro to die, and then they'll lift the embargo and resume trade and diplomatic relations. Also, there is no recent terrorism basis for invading Cubs (i will stand to be corrected on that). As well, as a good percentage of the world is against the continuation of the embargo (I don't want to get into a peeing contest here), an invasion by the US would be met with as much if not more outrage Internationally than Iraq.


If they do invade, let's hope they leave Veradero, the Romero e Julieta and Cohiba factories alone....


 
Recruit Joe said:
Well although I don't disagree with disarming Iran so to speak, it would most definitely NOT be a cakewalk to invade that country. They have a much better equipped military and stronger trained force than Iraq did. Larger too. The US hasn't seen casualties yet until they try and invade that country... Not to say they wouldn't win but they would pay for it in the warm blood of their soldiers. Plus, who then can afford to run that country too? I believe the American taxpayer won't be happy about that. They also won't be happy with going through another war, there are some seriously pissed off people living south of the border about Iraq as it is, nevermind another front...

It all depends on the situation. The US might decide to take limited action to clear the border between Iran and Iraq. They may step up "black" ops to destabilize the regime in Tehran and tacitly support Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear installations. Only a very brazen move on Teheran's part, or the demonstrated proof of a nuclear capability would convince the US to directly strike into Iran.

That being said, the US has capabilities far beyond what anyone else has, and is evolving new military doctrines to supplement of replace AirLand Battle, and the heavy metal army to support it. The difference between Gulf War 1 and Gulf War 2 are illuminating. General Franks went in without a six week air campaign (Desert Storm), and launched his ground assault with a force about 1/4 the size of the Coalition advance in 1991 (Desert Sabre), yet went far beyond what anyone planned or even dreamed possible in 1991. An invasion of Iran would be difficult, but probably not as difficult as we might imagine.
 
The wild card of North Korea has surfaced, with some reports of civil disobedience breaking out:

November 17, 2004: A North Korean Freedom Movement?

Hopeful signs have apparently surfaced.

It's Thursday in Japan and I have received email from Kyoto from Mongai Kome, frequent commenter on this blog. His morning paper (Sankei Shinbun) is reporting anti-regime flyers being posted in over fifty places in North Korea. This public display of disobedience in that benighted country is unprecedented and has been going on for the last month. Here is Mongai:

The most prevalent flyer is called the "sixteen lies" of tyrant Kim and his tyrant father and it takes apart the fundamental myths and propaganda regarding the cult of the Kims and outlines the failings of the regime. Another flyer is based on the thesis that Kim Jong-il killed his father (perhaps some propaganda in and of itself but a brilliant move given the traditions of the Korean culture.)

Here is hoping things happen in twos and in Iran and North Korea justice will be done, and done soon, and done of, by, and for the people there with a little help from friends.

From earlier in his email, Mongai means Bush and Rice who he is happy are in office, considering the circumstances. But I think if Kim Jong-il is finally going to be gotten rid of, we already know who is going to do it.

The collapse of the North Korean regime could get very messy, very fast.
 
The current issue of Atlantic Monthly examines the issue of Iraq by setting up a "wargame" with experienced American ex soldiers, politicians and diplomats to play the parts of various US Administration officials, and inputs the most current non classified intelligence of the region. The article is available on line to subscribers, the rest of us should buy the magazine and read it.

Some conclusions:

1. Israel attempting a unilateral airstrike against Iran will not have sufficient capability to take out the Iranian program, and cause no end of problems for the West

2. Limited US action is possible, but suffers from many of the same limitations

3. The US has the capability to strike into Iran and possibly do a regime change, however there is no capacity currently to maintain a large scale stabilization force.

4. The idea of regime change , while nice, is not very specific. Who will the new rulers of Iran be?

5. Most scenarios are flawed because there is no "red cell" involved in their creation. No intelligent enemy will sit passively as an enemy force assembles, and no known current plans seem to take asymmetrical response or Iranian preemptive actions into account.

We need to remember too the ideology of the Mullahs and the Jihadis: First, Islam philosophically divides the world into two camps â “ this is Islam's definitions, not mine --  Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Harb. Dar al-Islam is the House of Submission. Dar Al-Harb is not the House of Infidels. It is the House of War. Unless we can wrap our minds around these definitions, it will be difficult to predict how they will behave, or develop effective countermeasures against them.
 
Howdy!

I've prepared the following questions for you. I'm sorry that this was later than expected, but Crunch Time has officially started.
I was going to email questions to the individuals that came forward, but I thought that it would be easier to extend it to everyone and anyone.

If you could just email me back with your responses, that would be great: lzibrik10@yahoo.ca

I appreciate it.

Thanks,

Lindsay


1. State your full name for the record.

2. What is your current or past rank, if you no longer serve with the Canadian Military?

3. How many years of service did you provide?

4. For the purpose of confidentiality, would you prefer me to withhold your name in a University/College setting?

5. For the purpose of confidentiality, would you prefer me to withhold your name if further action (i.e. government/institutional copies) is taken with regards to the academic paper?

6. 49 former US Generals told President Bush that missile defense is a waste of funds, and urged Canada not to join. What is your position on this issue?

7. In your opinion, will democracy have a chance to establish itself (temporarily or permanently) in Iraq?

8. With the expected launch of Missile Defense towards the end of 2004, the United States is looking to spend approximately one trillion US dollars (for the entire campaign) to build this system. Critics argue that the money should be spent on diminshing the roots of conflict and terrorism (inequality, poverty, underdevelopment...) instead. Do you agree or disagree? And what are the reasons to support your claim?

9. If the proposed Missile Defense passes, with active Canadian participation included, do you agree or disagree with the likelihood of this defense system creating an atmosphere where more conflict and more terrorist activity emerges, due to the fact that states (particularly those who do not participate in the "global defense system") feel more vulnerable?

10. The United Nations Committee suggests that a mere 8-10% (approximately $80 Billion US dollars) of international military spending pee year will meet the basic needs of every citizen on earth (clothing, food, shelter, water, and education). If these are some of the very problems that contribute to terrorist activity, why have appropriate actions not been taken in the efficiency of the "global war on terrorism"?

11. With recent statistics showing that 70% of Canadians show no desire to join onto the Missile Defense Program for North America, does Canada's participation in the Missile Defense Program look promising in the future years?

12. The United States organized an invasion in Iraq on the basis that the Iraqi government was developing and concealing "weapons of mass destruction". "Saddam Hussein's quest to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has been systematic and relentless," reports the US Department of State. With the United States harbouring the largest military on the globe, and weapons of mass destruction in greater numberm, strength and capability than any other state, could it be argued on the same line of reasoning that the United States is also a "threat to the peace and security of the world"? (US Department of State) In answering this question, it is necessary to look at it from the point-of-view of the "West", as well as the "Peripheral Countries" (less developed, economically and politcally dependent on the West etc...)

13. As a permanent member of the United Nations, do you believe that the United Staes is subject to and moreover bound by the conditions and negotiations of the international governing body? Why, or why not? Has the United States breached international law?

14. The Vietnam War was launched on "government lies passed on by pliant mass media," where "North Vietnamese torpedo boats launched an "unprovoked attack" against a U.S. destroyer on "routine patrol" in the Tonkin Gulf on Aug. 2 -- and that North Vietnamese PT boats followed up with a "deliberate attack" on a pair of U.S. ships two days later." The Gulf War, was sold to the United States, "the mother of all clients," by a "it bleeds, it leads" story about babies being tossed out of incubators by Iraqi soldiers. As officials and the mass media learned of the witness's blood ties with the Kuwaiti government, the story began to fall apart, and the war was launched on false information/propaganda. The Iraq War was launched by the United States of America on the basis that Iraq was developing and concealing weapons of mass destruction, with no evidence that these weapons of mass destruction even exist, is it viable that government lies and deception have once again "sold a war" to the media and public?






 
Nice bunch of questions loaded with half-truths and innuendo.  So much for trying to find out anything useful.

All you want is to have your pre-existing beliefs verified.

Have fun.  I won't be responding even though I'm a veteran of that previous war. 

Instead of telling us your version of history, why don't you seek to find out what really happened?

Never mind.  I see a closed mind.

Jim
 
Old Guy is right.

You need to take Statistics 101; your questions are loaded and are filled with bias.

You seem to be asking questions to support preconceptions rather then to find out what we think.
 
Not at all. If I were looking to have my beliefs confirmed, I wouldn't be here in the first place: the majority of your views stray much farther right than mine. I don't think that one with a "closed mind" would seek information, fully knowing that it would run against his/her values, beliefs and views.

I'm asking questions, based on how I perceive the world. If you have evidence and or reasoning that runs counter to mine, then present it, but you telling me that my questions are "loaded with half-truths and inneundo," merely shows that your views are just as much loaded as mine.

"Instead of telling us your version of history, why don't you seek to find out what really happened?"

Ok, so what really happened? Keep in mind that history is written by individuals who come from a set of beliefs, values, and bias, much like you and I. If history were objective, it wouldn't have been written a thousand times over.
 
I've sent my replies via email.  I don't think these are necessarily loaded, they are a starting point for conversation.  Is anyone suggesting the Gulf of Tonkin Incident actually happened, or that we have actually found WMD in Iraq?  ???
 
MissMolsonIndy said:
7. In your opinion, will democracy have a chance to establish itself (temporarily or permanently) in Iraq?
Yes, but only if international troops remain to support the Iraqi government's attempts to maintain security & stability.  Only when Iraqi forces are strong enough, to look after their own internal security needs, can the international coalition leave.  The threat is not just that insurgents overthrow the infantile democratic system.  The threat includes any acts intended to harm the Iraqi people.

The international community must also continue a financial involvement until Iraqi infrastructure and industry is re-established & health.
 
McG said:
Yes, but only if international troops remain to support the Iraqi government's attempts to maintain security & stability.  Only when Iraqi forces are strong enough, to look after their own internal security needs, can the international coalition leave.  The threat is not just that insurgents overthrow the infantile democratic system.  The threat includes any acts intended to harm the Iraqi people.

The international community must also continue a financial involvement until Iraqi infrastructure and industry is re-established & health.

I agree with this one.  Do you think that the Americans will be able to create that stability, or is there too much animosity towards them?  Can anyone go in and stabilize Iraq in a way that would be preferable to the Iraqi people?  I'm not necessarily questioning whether or not they should be in Iraq (as it's a moot point now) but would the Iraqi people be better served by having their short-term stability maintained by a nation other than the states/britian?

T
 
I would appreciate direct, individual answers via email, but also encourage debate on the forum. I will be gathering sources from both, so do as you please...

Thanks!
 
As I mentioned before, these questions are loaded with your own bias.   You are trying to find out what your reader's opinions are regarding Canadian and US Foreign Policies, not what your reader's opinions are regarding left-wing interpretations of Canadian and US Foreign Policy.

In an attempt to maintain the notion of objectivity, academic surveys and questionnaires should attempt to be as free as possible from language that includes insinuations and pejorative statements (I can see multiple examples in your questionnaire).   By doing this you may be accused of attempting to lead your subjects to their answer or to present a one-sided argument to get the answer you want to hear.   As well, you choice of tone and language implies that you have an axe to grind - why don't you leave that to the daily rag reporters.

In essence, everyone is aloud to have a bias (hell, all of you can read what mine is) but when collecting data and facts in an academic setting, it is important to gather it in a "neutral" manner, less your own bias be seen to have interfered with the data collection process.

Now for your questions:

MissMolsonIndy said:
6. 49 former US Generals told President Bush that missile defense is a waste of funds, and urged Canada not to join. What is your position on this issue?

How about US Generals that support the development of the system?   What exactly were the generals arguing against - specific system technology or the concept in general?   Do the generals have an axe to grind (for example, their department lost funds to the BMD system)?

You're "headlining" here, just like a newspaper.   Your asking us a question without supplying any qualitative substance for us to base our position on.

7. In your opinion, will democracy have a chance to establish itself (temporarily or permanently) in Iraq?

That one is a crapshoot.   There are so many different interests colliding in Iraq - American's pursuing the GWOT, Al Qaeda operations, Shia fundamentalism (supported from Iran), left over Ba'ath party rebels (all those Republican Guard divisions had to go somewhere), Sunni's who fear a Shi'a takeover, Kurds who hate both parties.   When you got a situation that is that complex, you have to take things one day at a time.

8. With the expected launch of Missile Defense towards the end of 2004, the United States is looking to spend approximately one trillion US dollars (for the entire campaign) to build this system. Critics argue that the money should be spent on diminshing the roots of conflict and terrorism (inequality, poverty, underdevelopment...) instead. Do you agree or disagree? And what are the reasons to support your claim?

If we want to base the debate on economic issues we can.   Brad Sallows summed up my outlook on the economics of the issue best in another thread:

I estimate that on one city block where I live, there are approximately 25 single detached residences.   In a grid square, I estimate there could be as many as 1800 residences.   Assuming the replacement cost of each to be $100K, including reconstruction, refurnishment, landscaping, replacement of vehicles, refurbishment of utilities, etc, that amounts to about $180M.   Now be conservative and cut the estimate by nearly one-half to a nice, round, $100M to replace one grid square blown away by a nuclear warhead.   A 3km radius of devastation?   Maybe $700M.   5km?   Maybe $2B.   Keep in mind my estimates should be on the low side.   I can't begin to estimate the cost of replacing densely populated high-rise residential or commercial property.   There are also, not incidentally, the lives.

Of course, there are the economic costs: what happens if in the aftermath of a detonation cargo stops moving out of the Port of Vancouver (check out the daily cost of a longshoreman's strike) and most of the surviving population decides to take an extended vacation with relatives east of the Rockies?   That could happen even if a near miss occurs and the worst that happens is that the "Lions" are slightly resculpted.

Likelihood of occurrence: very small.   Impact: very large.   Worth at least a little more commitment to research into preventive measures against missiles as well as sea containers?   You decide.


9. If the proposed Missile Defense passes, with active Canadian participation included, do you agree or disagree with the likelihood of this defense system creating an atmosphere where more conflict and more terrorist activity emerges, due to the fact that states (particularly those who do not participate in the "global defense system") feel more vulnerable?

If you look at the proposal for the BMD, it is built to deter attacks from "Rogue Nations".   A problem with this is that there is the chance that the outcome can lead to other states in believing that their nuclear deterrence has fallen below acceptable levels, leading to increases their arsenal to offset US invulnerability.   Consider that this argument is geared towards China and Russian, who both already possess a preponderant amount of nuclear warheads from all three points of the triad (SLBM, ICBM, Air-Delivered) I don't see where the increased level of danger is going to come from; the situation already has the potential to be catastrophic.

I am unsure of how this breeds terrorism and conflict though.

10. The United Nations Committee suggests that a mere 8-10% (approximately $80 Billion US dollars) of international military spending per year will meet the basic needs of every citizen on earth (clothing, food, shelter, water, and education). If these are some of the very problems that contribute to terrorist activity, why have appropriate actions not been taken in the efficiency of the "global war on terrorism"?

Kind of hard to give people clothing, food, shelter, water and education when a militia comes rolling through and cuts the noses off of those who accepted aid from Imperialists.   Kind of hard to distribute aid when most of the aid money is siphoned off by tin-pot dictators (how else does Arafat squirrel away billions of dollars?).

Stability and security are the key elements to an environment that is conducive to productivity.   Otherwise, why wouldn't these people have got clothing, shelter, and education on their own?   Cutting military spending in return for "I Love Canada" tee-shirts to give to Palestinian kids isn't going to do much for rectifying the problem.

11. With recent statistics showing that 70% of Canadians show no desire to join onto the Missile Defense Program for North America, does Canada's participation in the Missile Defense Program look promising in the future years?

70% of Canadians also identified Lester Pearson as Canada's leader in WWII.

1)   Statistics are shaky, just ask Steven Harper about his job as the Prime Minister.   For every statistic that came out supporting the war in Iraq, there was one that came out opposing it.

2)   You're assuming that the general populace of Canada is familiar with the details of BMD policies and strategies.   Considering more Canadians pay attention to the latest gay couple on "Will and Grace" or who's offering what in the NHL lock-out, I wouldn't be too confident on basing policy decisions on the fickle nature of the mob.

12. The United States organized an invasion in Iraq on the basis that the Iraqi government was developing and concealing "weapons of mass destruction". "Saddam Hussein's quest to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has been systematic and relentless," reports the US Department of State. With the United States harbouring the largest military on the globe, and weapons of mass destruction in greater numberm, strength and capability than any other state, could it be argued on the same line of reasoning that the United States is also a "threat to the peace and security of the world"? (US Department of State) In answering this question, it is necessary to look at it from the point-of-view of the "West", as well as the "Peripheral Countries" (less developed, economically and politcally dependent on the West etc...)

This one is silly.   You are trying to draw direct comparisons to the arsenal of the United States to the one that Iraq had possessed (and used).   If you think that the US is irresponsible with its Nuclear Weapons policy, then I implore you to point out to me where their transgressions lie.   Although there are strategic dilemmas with the US arsenal (with high-readiness, Launch-On-Demand silos being the most obvious), I think we can give the US enough credit to move them out of the "threat to the peace and security of the world" camp.

13. As a permanent member of the United Nations, do you believe that the United States is subject to and moreover bound by the conditions and negotiations of the international governing body? Why, or why not? Has the United States breached international law?

I am not sure on what you mean with the US being a permanent member of the United Nations; the US is not bound in any way to remain in the UN in perpetuity - adherence to the UN Charter is the legislation of the individual states that compose it, and that legislation could be reversed as easy as any other law.   Perhaps you meant permanent member of the United Nations Security Council?

I think that the legitimacy of the UN has been challenged to such an extent that it's legitimacy as the aegis of international law has been sufficiently diminished.   The structure of the UN worked fine during the Cold War (a geopolitical arrangement that it was designed to facilitate) but I think it becomes less and less relevent every year.   Why should the United States hold itself to the proclamations of an organization that puts it on the same level as the Sudan; that puts Iraq (under Saddam) in charge of the council on disarmament and Libya in charge of the council on human rights; or one that gives France a veto is world security issues but discards countries like Germany, Japan, and India.   Quite farcical if you ask me.

14. The Vietnam War was launched on "government lies passed on by pliant mass media," where "North Vietnamese torpedo boats launched an "unprovoked attack" against a U.S. destroyer on "routine patrol" in the Tonkin Gulf on Aug. 2 -- and that North Vietnamese PT boats followed up with a "deliberate attack" on a pair of U.S. ships two days later." The Gulf War, was sold to the United States, "the mother of all clients," by a "it bleeds, it leads" story about babies being tossed out of incubators by Iraqi soldiers. As officials and the mass media learned of the witness's blood ties with the Kuwaiti government, the story began to fall apart, and the war was launched on false information/propaganda. The Iraq War was launched by the United States of America on the basis that Iraq was developing and concealing weapons of mass destruction, with no evidence that these weapons of mass destruction even exist, is it viable that government lies and deception have once again "sold a war" to the media and public?

This one stinks so bad I can smell it in the office.   The Vietnam War was started on the "lie" of the Gulf of Tonkin?   Please, the American's were involved (as per the policy of Containment) in Vietnam long before the Gulf of Tonkin incident.   Do you think that the US public supported the Vietnam War based on the pretext of the Gulf of Tonkin?   How many recruiters did you see marching down the street saying "Avenge the Maddox!".   Same with GW1 (Iraqi baby killers) and GW2 (WMD).

You seem to be painting the notion of the casus belli being a monolithic, all-or-nothing issue.   If you bothered to look into the beginning of these conflicts, you would see that their are many more valid issues (as opposed to Chomsky-esque "government lies and deception") that different segments of society accept as valid reasons for war.   Anyone who takes press sensationalism as the justification for war is stupid (which, unfortunately, is more then we'd like to admit) and anyone who feels that the the government (and the society it represents) finds its sole casus belli in inflated, but relatively insignificant, news-clippings needs to up the Ritalin dosage and take a second look at the big picture.

----

As I said above, cut-out the rhetoric and the innuendo and the questions are pretty good.
 
To add to what Infanteer has already said (great post, BTW), the majority of your questions are about as flagrantly biased as a Quebec Referendum ballot. You rely a great deal on media sensationalism to prove your points, and even more on conjecture, not to mention that many of your questions contain incorrect statements or are worded very poorly. It doesn't seem that you've done much in terms of real research to substantiate your point(s), and, as such, will get answers that reflect that.
 
I've read through the questions over and over, yet I can't find the innuendo!

Seriously, how will the answers to these questions support or disprove your theory in any way? If you're trying to prove that members of the CF generally have a rightward slant on their opinions on politics, well please tell me you already knew that. Otherwise I'd be interested(in apurely academic sense) in knowing how you were going to incorporate these responses into a relevant argument. So xx% of CF members support/do not support the US led invasion of Iraq, what exactly is that suppose to mean?

Admit it, its clear from the questions that you're simply trying to vocalize a political opinion you believe in. Its ok, I've done it before too, its the only way to make these academic papers interesting.
 
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