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Fighting & Winning The Global War on Terror (WW IV)

War Criminals (and Humanitarian Criminals).

OK, let's get this out of the way.  If we follow the letter of the law of all the conventions, definitions, treaties, agreements, charters, and so forth currently extant, I am prepared to stipulate we can probably find an excuse to try every politician and soldier involved in a war or other indignity against people for some crime.

Now let's have a dose of reality.

"Criminal" is when you systematically set out to round up and exterminate people.

"Criminal" is when you conduct medical experiments without informed consent.

"Criminal" is when you issue orders that enemy combatants are to be executed when captured.

When you have evidence that the political leadership of today in any particular country has engaged in crimes on the scale of the WWII German or Japanese leadership, by all means let's have trials.

When you have evidence that the military leadership of today in any particular country has engaged in crimes on the scale of the WWII German or Japanese military high command or selected commanders - executions of airmen, death marches, widespread maltreatment and misuse of PoW, sanctioned executions of noncombatants - by all means, let's have trials.

When you have evidence that someone is conducting ethnic cleansing - executions, deportations and dislocations, seizure of assets - by all means let's have trials.

Until then, get a grip and ponder until you come up with a satisfactory explanation of the moral difference between someone who dies as a result of an international affair or conflict and someone who dies due to matters "essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state".
 
I am a huge VDH fan, and have posted some of his articles to this site.   I admire his intellect.

However I feel that, as of late, VDH is starting to lose any objectivity that he previously had.

Rumsfeld has many decisions to answer for, not he least of which being his penchant for decreasing "boots on the ground" for high tech, "RMA" solutions to his military issues.

High tech RMA solutions are great, and most effective, when the enemy is going to meet you on the open plains and go at you force on force.   Meet you and fight to your strengths.    Not the case anymore.

My understanding is that the US military was ready and able to put more troops in the field initially, to allow them to quell the after effects of a regime change situation such as occured in Iraq.   The intent was that stability would be acheieved earlier, allowing for much smaller garrison requirements down the road (where we are now!).

Rumsfeld, enamoured with a   half finished and half successful regime change in Afghanistan, extrapolated that (flawed) model to the Iraq conflict.   The errors in this thinking have been compounded in a much more complex theatre of operations.

I am a Rumsfeld fan too.   I think his liabilities outweigh his utility though.

Obviously this is a half informed and very personal opinion.
 
devil39 said:
Rumsfeld has many decisions to answer for, not he least of which being his penchant for decreasing "boots on the ground" for high tech, "RMA" solutions to his military issues.

High tech RMA solutions are great, and most effective, when the enemy is going to meet you on the open plains and go at you force on force.  Meet you and fight to your strengths.  Not the case anymore.

The transformation effort has been underway since the early 1990's, both to cash in on the "peace dividend" by having less boots, but also because of the quantitative change in weapons and communications technology, and organizational theory. The institutional leadership of the American Military did not want to do "Somalia" over again, and took many steps to "transform" itself into a force not suitable for LIC, PSO or Constabulary type operations. Today it is undergooing a "countertransformation" (which will take a lot of time).

My understanding is that the US military was ready and able to put more troops in the field initially, to allow them to quell the after effects of a regime change situation such as occured in Iraq.  The intent was that stability would be acheieved earlier, allowing for much smaller garrison requirements down the road (where we are now!).

The military establishment wanted to replay Gulf War one with an application of 300,000 troops, a six week "Desert Storm II" and an armoured "Desert Sabre II" lunge into Baghdad.(Go with what you know) The arguments for and against would fill volumes, but a quick summary of why it went down as a 100,000 man invading force was the need to achieve operational surprise ("What do you mean, they are invading now?) and logistical considerations (apparently, there is only one suitable port in Kuwait, which limited the flow of supplies). Tommy Franks is also a much bolder commander than "Storming Norman", since he was willing to accept the risks of going in early, fast and "light".

Rumsfeld, enamoured with a  half finished and half successful regime change in Afghanistan, extapolated that (flawed) model to the Iraq conflict.  The errors in this thinking have been compounded in a much more complex theatre of operations.

Afghanistan worked out very well indeed, but the circumstances were very different, since the Northern Alliance provided the "boots on the ground", and B-52 and F-15E Strike Eagles supplied the firepower. There is no doubt "some" Afghanistan thinking influenced the planning for Iraq, but military art is always uncertain (the enemy gets to vote), and after all, the initial operation was a success. Now we have to secure the victory and see things through to the end.
 
Question:

Which of these tactics are acceptable? All are illegal and/or contrary to civilized norms. Stipulated that all actions are taken on "suspicion".  Are they any more "right" if politicians actions are approved by Supreme Court Justices?  All attack the Centre of Gravity of terrorist organizations by decapitation of the leadership - thus they conform to OIF strategy of attacking the centre directly (Saddam and his government) rather than working through layers of defenses slowly putting pressure on the centre and forcing negotiation and capitulation.

Stopping bank accounts
"James Bond" type assassinations with a Beretta .22
Assassination by rifle
Assassination by planted bomb
Assassination by Apache 64 raid
Assassination by B2 Raid
Assassination by Predator strike

Is assassination justified?

Should we engage?

Is assassination more or less morally reprehensible than collateral damage to civilians?  Is it worth reducing collateral damage if it puts a Canadian soldier's life at increased risk?
 
kind of on a side note... this has always confused me... if WW IV is the global war on terror.... did I sleep through ww3? or are you guys considering the cold war ww3 =/
 
The Cold War, which was very hot in places with quite a few million killed, is now considered by some to have been World War III.
 
Kirkhill said:
Question:

Which of these tactics are acceptable? All are illegal and/or contrary to civilized norms. Stipulated that all actions are taken on "suspicion". Are they any more "right" if politicians actions are approved by Supreme Court Justices? All attack the Centre of Gravity of terrorist organizations by decapitation of the leadership - thus they conform to OIF strategy of attacking the centre directly (Saddam and his government) rather than working through layers of defenses slowly putting pressure on the centre and forcing negotiation and capitulation.

Stopping bank accounts
"James Bond" type assassinations with a Beretta .22
Assassination by rifle
Assassination by planted bomb
Assassination by Apache 64 raid
Assassination by B2 Raid
Assassination by Predator strike

Is assassination justified?

Should we engage?

Is assassination more or less morally reprehensible than collateral damage to civilians? Is it worth reducing collateral damage if it puts a Canadian soldier's life at increased risk?

Given the current position of the US military, attempting to disrupt or decapitate enemy organizations; including governments; by such means may be the only viable option in the short to mid term. Messing with bank accounts and other economic disruption is fairly easy, while direct action would have to be very carefully considered; i.e. could it be done?, could it be pinned on someone else? could the US manipulate the outcome to put their preferred candidates into the vacated positions of power?

Openly attacking with Predators or B-2s has the negative effect of calling attention to who is responsible,  and all such operations suffer from the 1920-30 era "airpower" fallacies. No matter how many of them you kill, the effect is not permanent unless you are physically on the ground to direct the results. Israel assassinates leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah with alarming ease and regularity, but the only actions that have effectively slowed down the terrorism has been physical incursions into Gaza and the West Bank.

So in the end, there may be waves of assassinations and decapitating attacks with the short term goal of causing disruption of enemy organizations, but this can only be effective in the long term if followed up by the physical invasion and occupation of enemy territory.
 
But what if the enemy holds no ground? Or if it does so only fleetingly or in small numbers - sometimes only individuals.

Has no physical presence? Only "concentrates forces"on the objective?  Otherwise is a virtual organization with no physical structure, no logistics train? It is the ultimate in "economy of effort" operations - operating "offensively" with "speed" and "surprise".  Small manpower force whose morale is hard for outsiders to influence, easy for commanders to maintain.

If you haven't already read it Art try and get ahold of a copy of "Ghost Force: the secret history of the SAS" by Ken Connor - 23 years SAS ranker.

After describing feats of derring-do over a lifetime he has this to say about the future of the SAS "It's the perfect moment to disband the SAS".

The primary benefit of the SAS to HMG is/was not its military operations (long range patrols, stay-behind recce), CT work, CQB, raids, - they did it well but more conventional forces could do that as well. Not training of foreign forces  and body guard work - also equally well done but now done by ex-SAS types on the Govt payroll as military consultants.  It was its covert operations in support of HMG or friendly governments.

"There will be no more deployments fo heavily armed miltary personnel transiting through overseas bases (Connor explains it can't be done now by Britain because it doesn't have the bases). There will be no military aircraft over-flying other countries in wet-suits, no figures in black balaclavas abseiling down cliffs or buildings.  There will be no missiles, no smart bombs, no mortars or artillery, no machine-guns, no grenades, automatic rifles or even pistols.  There will be no hearts and minds programmes, no painstaking learning of local languages and dialects, no paramedic training.

"The economic warriors of tomorrow will be civilians.  They will arrive in civilian clothes, on civilian flights, carrying nothing more threatening than an American Express card.  They will be women as well as men, speaking English.......

"Their weapons will be the sort of tools and equipment that can be bought in any High Street hardware shop, but the impact of their attacks  will be enormous, causing economic damage running into millions of pounds....... The victim country will probably not even know which country has attacked them." p.346.

Now while I think that Connor might be a bit premature in predicting the demise of the need for the "conventional" SAS (black balaclavas, overflights, wetsuit) he was accurately describing a low cost strategy for bringing down a 1st World government.

What he failed to include in his analysis was the likelihood that such strategies could also be employed by NGO's like Al-Qaeda, that they might have State-sponsors and that the Target governments might have need for an organisation that can clandestinely tackle the NGOs so that neither the Target government nor the State sponsor are unduly embarassed.  Al-Qaeda supplied a new lease on life for the SAS as a covert unit.

So, if you take a look at the British SF organization I see a steady progression from conventional tankers, infanteers, engineers and gunners, through para and marine qualified troops, through pathfinders, mountain and arctic warfare cadre, STA batteries and LR Sigs Sqns and now SAS-Lite, through SAS LR operations on a conventional battlefield, to CT, CQB and "covert raids" on high value targets (comms, missile sites, oil platforms, Al-Qaeda training camps) to quietly knocking off bin Laden, or more likely the owner of a particular bar in the Iraqi quarter of Damascus.  The skills employed at any given stage are common across many levels.  Proficiency increases and demands on the person increase.  Selection of personnel is critical.  Having a large pool of qualified candidates is also critical.

I don't see Canada being in the business of bringing down governments just yet - so the civilian warrior business-man is probably not in our cards.  But I do see JTF-2 being a useful tool for building foreign credits for our government.  And that suggests to me a pyramidical structure of units, skills and proficiencies, funneling into the JTF-2 would be no bad thing for our military.

Like much of the Cold War this GWOT, which will also be protracted, will be characterized by quiet violence occuring under the radar.  Unknown people dying mysteriously in unknown places.

The battle will be to secure bases of operations and deny the enemy ponds to swim in by winning "hearts and minds" through the provision of security (economic as well as physical) and strike rapidly and "discretely" when the opportunity presents itself. 

This is not a recipe for a force structure capable of refighting the Battle of Kursk.  It is a light infantry, light cavalry force with a significant "covert" capability.

 
I will have to disagree with you on one major point: terrorist organizations do not have the ability to operate independently of some sort of sponsoring/sheltering agency for very long.

Consider the PIRA. There may have been no more than 250 "shooters", but they could operate because they could shelter in people's houses, use taxis and public transit, get money orders from front organizations in the US using wire transfers, train in Lybian terrorist training facilities (and using air and sea born commerce to get there and back). All these things and more are only possible with a functioning civil society, either providing active support (i.e. Lybia, US front organizations), or living parasitically off the infrastructure of the society they are fighting.

Even the idea of a person in a business suit armed with an AMEX card presupposes a banking system, and a very sophisticated one at that.

Soldiers and police or security agents who are in physical control of the area can examine suspects, control access and movement, establish cordons or take offensive action depending on the circumstances. A helicopter launching a missile might kill a suspect, but a company of Infantry arriving in Achzarits and supported by Merkavas can not only kill or capture the suspect, but also sweep the area for associates, forensic evidence, record all the people who live and work in the area for the database, scoop up the bank records and store receipts....

Laws like the USA Patriot act are another step, since they allow the police and intelligence organizations to coordinate and search for the traces people leave as they go through their lives.

You need to be there to find those traces.
 
I will have to disagree with you on one major point: terrorist organizations do not have the ability to operate independently of some sort of sponsoring/sheltering agency for very long.

Consider the PIRA. There may have been no more than 250 "shooters", but they could operate because they could shelter in people's houses, use taxis and public transit, get money orders from front organizations in the US using wire transfers, train in Lybian terrorist training facilities (and using air and sea born commerce to get there and back). All these things and more are only possible with a functioning civil society, either providing active support (i.e. Lybia, US front organizations), or living parasitically off the infrastructure of the society they are fighting.

I agree that "shooters" need support and need pond to swim in.  I just don't happen to think the pond needs to be very deep these days and can be spread very wide.  Maybe a better analogy is a metastasized cancer - clumps of cells, widely scattered in healthy tissue, connected by very fine, often unobservable, filaments.  Very deadly.  These lads don't need semtex or AKs.  They can buy a ticket any place and buy wire cutters, wrenches, matches and if necessary go to a local hoodlum or sporting goods shop and buy a variety of very serviceable firearms.

Even the idea of a person in a business suit armed with an AMEX card presupposes a banking system, and a very sophisticated one at that.

I really question that when barristas at Starbucks are skimming debit cards and ATMs in banks have fake card readers installed by the local hoods.  The banking support necessary can be pretty marginal to finance a $5000 operation like that school in Russia.

Soldiers and police or security agents who are in physical control of the area can examine suspects, control access and movement, establish cordons or take offensive action depending on the circumstances. A helicopter launching a missile might kill a suspect, but a company of Infantry arriving in Achzarits and supported by Merkavas can not only kill or capture the suspect, but also sweep the area for associates, forensic evidence, record all the people who live and work in the area for the database, scoop up the bank records and store receipts....

I agree with your points here but with these caveats.  Too many Achzarit/Merkava raids will not make the locals particularly happy and cooperative.  More flies caught with honey than vinegar.  Also this course of action presupposes that conventional forces are on the ground.  What about when a cell is present in a host country, with or without that country's knowledge and it doesn't act either through lack of ability or lack of desire.  I agree the best situation would be to get a couple of Canadian "stability ops" battalions into the country and make friends but sometimes a quick in and out operation by person or persons unknown might be better received by the host country and be more useful in the short term.

Laws like the USA Patriot act are another step, since they allow the police and intelligence organizations to coordinate and search for the traces people leave as they go through their lives.

Agree, but again this assumes that the nasty chaps are operating in places with police, courts and lawyers.  And many places don't.

You need to be there to find those traces.

Agree again.  Whether or not you are allowed to be there is the issue.

Cheers.
 
a_majoor said:
Openly attacking with Predators or B-2s has the negative effect of calling attention to who is responsible,   and all such operations suffer from the 1920-30 era "airpower" fallacies. No matter how many of them you kill, the effect is not permanent unless you are physically on the ground to direct the results. Israel assassinates leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah with alarming ease and regularity, but the only actions that have effectively slowed down the terrorism has been physical incursions into Gaza and the West Bank.
Israel's policy of "targetted assassination" is an example of what can be done with quality intelligence. I disagree that the physical incursions were the only actions that slowed down the terrorists. A noticable dip in capability and activity was observed when "the gloves came off" and the likes of Rantisi and Yassin were whacked. Despite the rhetoric of revenge, HAMAS was unable to launch a credible operation for some months. The suggestion that refuge in Damascus for the likes of Khaled Mish'al would not be enough to keep HAMAS leaders alive also caused chaos (a recent car bombing in Damascus targetting a HAMAS leader was atributted to Israel, and the Israelis didn't do much to deny it).

In fact, I would argue that the incursions into Gaza and West Bank zones produce the wrong effect - despite slowing terrorist activity it also generates new terrorists at a much more rapid rate than collateral damage from targetted assassination. As well, as long as good int on terrorist leaders is available, the targetted assassinations have proven more effective in disrupting the terrorist networks.

However, success is also predicated on the terrorist orgs retaining their top-down structure. That is likely to continue as it is not easy to train suicide bombers in an environment that encourages independent thought and action.

Physical occupation would work if Israel could take the additional steps of expelling Palestinians or assimilating them into the State (not bloody likely given the population expansion differences between Israelis and Palestinians). That's a step they cannot take, so things like the barrier and targetted assassinations have become necessary stop-gaps.

Acorn
 
The argument about the efficiency of targetted assasination is very murky, partly because it is an exercise in "what if", and partly because of the propaganda and rhetoric that surrounds the issue. I have been attempting to reserch that topic, and so far it "seems" incursions and physical occupation do work better than just assasinations. The number of suicide bombings dropped dramatically after the invasion of the West Bank, since soldiers could control movement and physically root out the "bomb factory" infrastructure.

There is a secondary consideration as well; getting "good intelligence" on the leadership is very difficult, but the proximity of military and security forces to the local populations allows for the gathering of intelligence, through observation, personal contacts and even the development of a network of agents and operators in the controlled area, once again difficult to do by "remote control".

It comes down to the fact that many overlapping resources must be deployed in order to achieve the goal of eliminating terrorists. Cutting off their funding and supporting infrastructure is one of the best ways to keep the number of terrorists down and prevent their activities, getting into the areas which shelter and support them gives you a means of finding them in person, and of course, direct action prevents them from carrying out operations in the first place.
 
As in any "battle" the more avenues of attack that are utilized, the more the opposition has to disperse resources, is kept on the defensive and has difficulty organizing counter-strokes or offensives.  Terrain and force availability often limit the avenues that are open and can be exploited, and lack of accurate intelligence results in some avenues being dead ends or diversions, sucking up available resources.

So it is not an unreasonable statement to note that in this conflict that there will be occasions where strategic bombardment threats are useful, where armoured air-land assaults are useful, where stability interventions are useful (with or without the active cooperation of the locals), where covert direct action is useful, where civil, legal and diplomatic actions are useful.  This is to state the obvious in some ways.

I think the issue here is that, unlike the Cold War (which provides a contemporary analogy for a modern, protracted conflict) that the "enemy/enemies" have concluded that conventional battles cannot be won, that conventional forces are a drain on the treasury and can only be afforded by bodies with vast pockets (Governments and Corporations) and that in fact even popular risings have their limitations.  Vietnam, much like Britain, won the war but lost the peace.  The Intifada has not achieved success (by any measure) for its architects.

The enemy these days is probably taking more cues from the Mafia and looking at its long term success as an organization and culture and ability to roll with the punches and survive and metamorphose.

What we are seeing is an organization with the usual combination of venality and ideology amongst the leadership but sustained by the ideology of its supporters and employing the techniques of the Mafia, the Medellin Cartel and the PIRA, the IZL  and the FLQ.

There won't be that many hard targets to destroy with high intensity conflict.  To win this war, if it is winnable, then every effort must be used to bring leadership icons to justice in open court.  This demonstrates that adherence to rule of law is effective as well as tending to reduce the stature of the people on trial.  Converts them from Icons to Persons.  However, it must also be recognized that problems with jurisdictions, access or just the plain threat risk and time constraints may force the use of "other means" to maintain or generate security.

As the Iraqis are demonstrating on a daily basis, have been since the looting after the fall of Saddam's statue, security trumps all other needs.  Freedom, Peace, Order, Good Governance, even Energy, Food and Water are all trumped by a need for a secure environment.  Bullets and bombs kill quicker than a lack of water and far quicker than a lack of freedom.

So while I continue to believe in the need for conventional forces, and I continue to believe in the need for "stability operations" in both permissive and hostile environments I believe also that the best use of available resources for those that believe in maintaining the supremacy of the Westphalian system of sovereign states (not necessarily nation-states) will be found in investing more in forces like the US Marines,  the Italian Carabinieri and the SAS.  As well the encouragement of local police and paramilitary forces no matter the risk of corruption. In line with the Iraqi call for security, an effective - if corrupt cop - is better than no cop at all.  Or put another way a Warlord that can be influenced is better than anarchy.

Longterm then the strategy must be first to impose and support order in order to generate a secure environment. Then to convert the "governors" to the advantages of "Good Governance" through running a "Just Society" in order to maintain "Peace".  And "Peace" is profitable - for all parties - and thus the desirable endstate.  Profits put bread on the table and supply circuses keeping people happy.

(Have I missed a cliche? I do try so hard to employ as many as possible - it is quite a challenge)

Cheers.
 
NMPeters said:
The Cold War.

Pretty funny.  I remember publications up to the end of the cold war and later 'predicting' WWIII.  I guess it's an honorary lifetime achievment award.  Maybe HonWWIII would be more appropriate, followed by WWIV (Application pending).
 
The expanding battlespace is being defined....

http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200501100715.asp

Circle Squared
Iran, Iraq, Syria.

Last week, Alhurra â ” an Arabic-language television station that is funded by our government â ” broadcast a taped interview with a terrorist named Moayad Ahmed Yasseen, the leader of Jaish Muhammad (Muhammad's Army). He was captured nearly two months ago in Fallujah during the liberation of the city.

Yasseen had been a colonel in Saddam's Army, so he was a fighter of some importance. He told Alhurra that two other former Iraqi military officers belonging to his group were sent "to Iran in April or May, where they met a number of Iranian intelligence officials." He said they also met with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and were provided with money, weapons, "and, as far as I know, even car bombs" for Jaish Muhammad.

Yasseen also said he was told by Saddam himself, after the liberation of Iraq in the spring of 2003, to cross into Syria and meet with a Syrian intelligence officer to ask for money and weapons.

So here we have a high-ranking member of the "insurgency," a textbook case of the sort of Saddam loyalist said to compose the bulk of those fighting against the Coalition. And what does he tell us? He tells us that he has been working closely with Iran and Syria, and that this close working relationship was directed by Saddam. Moreover, his organization, Jaish Muhammad, is an ally of Abu Musab al Zarqawi, himself a longtime resident of Tehran.

In other words, while there are certainly plenty of Saddam loyalists among the terrorists fighting against us, they are receiving support from Damascus and Tehran. Yasseen's testimony is one of the first bits of intelligence from the Fallujah campaign to reach the public. If we had truly investigative journalists out there, they would be all over this story, which is only one of many that came out of Fallujah. About a month ago, a letter from an Army officer who had fought in Fallujah circulated on the net, and, like Yasseen's tape, it helps dispel some of the myths clouding our strategic vision.

"In Fallujah," we learn, "the enemy had a military-type planning system...Some of the fighters were wearing body armor and Kevlar, just like we do. Soldiers took fire from heavy machine guns (.50 cal) and came across the dead bodies of fighters from Chechnya, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Afghanistan, and so on. No, this was not just a city of pi**ed off Iraqis, mad at the Coalition for forcing Saddam out of power. It was a city full of people from all over the Middle East whose sole mission in life was to kill Americans. Problem for them is that they were in the wrong city in November 2004."

We killed more than a thousand terrorists in Fallujah, and nearly an equal number surrendered, many of whom provided our military with useful information. Presumably Yasseen's information has been exploited before letting the Syrians and Iranians know that he has told us all about them.

Perhaps these revelations will help outgoing Secretary of State Colin Powell get on the right side of history before he rejoins civil society. Last September, in an interview with the Washington Times, he said "I don't think there's any doubt that the Iranians are involved and are providing support (for the terrorists in Iraq). How much and how influential their support is, I can't be sure and it's hard to get a good read on it."

Perhaps now he's got a better read. But of course, he chose not to know many things about Iran. He insisted that the Bush administration shut down a channel to a source of information about Iran, even though he knew that the source was reliable, and that information from that source â ” information concerning Iranian support for anti-American terrorists â ” had saved American lives in Afghanistan. Had the flow of information continued, we might have had a better picture of our enemies' intentions and capacities. And such a picture might have convinced Powell that Iran was not, as his deputy Richard Armitage put it, "a democracy," but a bloodthirsty tyranny that delights in killing Americans, Iraqis, and its own citizens.

Yet, in his final weeks in office, Secretary Powell has unfortunately continued to chant his mantra, "we are not working for regime change in Iran," as if he were proud of it. He, and his colleagues at State, the National Security Council, the Pentagon, and the CIA, should be ashamed. The mullahs are active supporters of terrorism all over the world, including Iraq, and we cannot expect to win this war so long as they remain in power.

Let's hope that Dr. Rice is paying close attention to the Yasseen confession, and the many others that will help her realize that there is no escape from the regional war in which we are engaged.

Faster, please.

â ” Michael Ledeen, an NRO contributing editor, is most recently the author of The War Against the Terror Masters. He is resident scholar in the Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute.
 
Meanwhile, other tools are being deployed to ferret ou the terrorist threat here in North America:

http://www.nationalreview.com/mccarthy/mccarthy200501140818.asp
A Nominee and the Attack
Michael Chertoff's experience.

In its eminently fair profile on Wednesday of Judge Michael Chertoff, President George W. Bush's extraordinarily able nominee to become the second secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, the New York Times touches on two controversial aspects of the Justice Department's tactical response in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks: the detentions of material witnesses and of immigration violators. Viewed objectively, these widely misunderstood initiatives were not merely sound; to have taken any other course would have been irresponsible.

REMEMBERING 9/11
Any sensible assessment requires the nigh-impossible: returning oneself to the mindset that had gripped law enforcement by about 10 A.M. on September 11, 2001. The nation had been attacked, and government had been caught flat-footed, having failed from an intelligence standpoint to anticipate, and from a military standpoint to be instantly prepared to deal with, a domestic attack on the continental United States that converted civilian airliners into weapons of mass destruction. Over three years later, having heard about a million times the mantras of "four airplanes" and "19 hijackers," it is easy to forget that, on that awful morning and the weeks that followed, we didn't have a clue whether it was only four planes and only 19 hijackers, or whether what we had been subjected to was the full assault or just the first wave.

Unlike the other 300 million stunned Americans, the communities of law enforcement, intelligence, and the military were stunned Americans with a mission: to stop it from happening again. Now.

In less-developed societies where the privileges and immunities we take for granted do not exist, preventive measures may be undertaken in utter disregard for personal rights. Here, thank God, they may not. Even in a crisis marked by crumbling skyscrapers and countless dead (and it is worth recalling that, on the morning of September 11, estimates of the total number killed were larger by a factor of six or seven than the ultimate figure of 3,000), government is obligated to proceed within a framework of deference to civil liberties. It may be aggressive, but it must be ever mindful that it exists to serve the American people, not to rule them.

INVESTIGATIVE IMPERATIVES
A responsible investigation of the September 11 attacks, such as the one that was conducted under the leadership of Mike Chertoff and several other experienced hands, had immediately to do several things. First, given that we did not know whether more attacks were to follow, it was imperative to break down the preparations of the identified 19 hijackers, determine any patterns of behavior, and match such patterns to all available information for indicators of other potential terrorism.

Second, given that it was manifest that the 19 had acted with the support of an international infrastructure that had assisted them in entering the U.S., training for the mission, finance, transportation, lodging and extensive planning, it was crucial to conduct a no-stone-unturned investigation of each of the identified terrorists â ” to glean whatever was to be gleaned from everyone, complicit or not, from the hijackers' closest associates to the maid who may have cleaned one of their hotel rooms. Without disruption, the network was certain to strike again. And from that morning forward, the mission was to prevent it from striking again, not to prosecute after the mass-murder of more Americans.

Finally, given that it was plainly al Qaeda that had struck us, and given that we had operated for several years under self-imposed constraints â ” including a procedural "wall" that had obstructed communications between intelligence and criminal investigators, and had thus obscured the true threat mosaic â ” it was vital to review and re-analyze everything we thought we already knew about Osama bin Laden's international network of militant Islamic terror battalions, this time with the walls down.

Here is the problem: Such an investigation would necessarily yield countless leads and torrents of information. Far more of it would raise suspicion than establish ironclad proof of terrorist activity. If we were probing, say, a scheme to defraud or engage in the inside trading of stock, this would present no difficulty: Investigators would bide their time until ironclad proof developed. Terrorism does not provide that luxury â ” mistakes, temporizing, and failures to act on suspicion can result in the deaths of those it is government's first mission to secure.

The cycle, moreover, is a vicious one: Act vigorously, and the civil-liberties lobby, in its best hyperbole-mode, limns you as a cabal of jack-booted thugs; miss something by not being vigorous enough, and Monday-morning-quarterbacks, in their best revisionist-mode, portray you as a sleepy incompetent and your unconnected dots as if they had been screaming neon warnings. The only certainty you have is that there will be high-pressure, time-sensitive judgment calls for human beings to make. Mistakes, involving people's lives and liberties, will be inevitable.

SORTING IT OUT
From that landscape, categories of concern emerged. Some people raised instant red flags. They were those long suspected, wholly apart from any known connection to the events of 9/11, of ties to the terror network. Often, the suspicions were based on evidence that could not be used publicly â ” information that was classified because it came from sensitive sources whose revelation would endanger both those sources and the lives consequently protected. Almost always, the usable evidence was not enough to satisfy probable cause for arrest on a terrorism charge.

Next were people who appeared to have had contacts with the hijackers. Some of these were intimate contacts that signaled possible culpability in the plot. Some were sure to be happenstance contacts â ” perhaps a temporary landlord or a travel agent â ” that were unlikely to stem from complicity, but that might prove significant in stitching together other important events and players. That it was essential to derive information from or about all these sources was obvious â ” especially with respect to those who might be thought threatening. But mere association with criminals â ” even terrorists â ” is not a crime in this country, and, again, the state of information at this stage was not sufficient (and in most instances would probably never be sufficient) to level terrorism charges.

Finally, there was the murkiest of categories: Potential conspirators who had gotten on the government's radar screen over the years, whose known behavior had raised concerns, but who had not been scrutinized closely enough to make a reasoned judgment. Were they threats? Might they be scheming to kill Americans? Recall, on September 10, 2001, we had known next to nothing about the 19 hijackers. Given that dearth, could anyone have responsibly concluded on September 12, or in the weeks immediately thereafter, that we now knew so much about a plot that had been years in the making that any reasonably suspect person had not been involved?

So the question arose: How does one legally take off the streets people who might pose a lethal threat, or who might possess vital information that could be lost, under circumstances where there is inadequate usable evidence to support an arrest on a terrorism charge? In that crucible, two stratagems surfaced.

MATERIAL-WITNESS ARRESTS
Federal law (and the law of most states) has long provided a process to arrest and detain as "material witnesses" persons who possess information that is germane even to minor crimes. The theory behind this is straightforward. A thriving democratic society is existentially reliant on the rule of law. If there is to be rule of law, the laws must be enforced, and grand juries and courts must be entitled to each person's evidence â ” even if that evidence must be compelled by the temporary deprivation of liberty.

In this, the most important investigation in the history of the United States, the Justice Department prudently and sparingly made use of this tool. Several people who were identified as having information that was relevant to the investigation, and as to whom there was reason to believe they might become unavailable if not held, were detained as material witnesses. This detention, it should be stressed, was not a judgment of complicity in the plot. It was a judgment of relevant information about the plot.

A material-witness arrest warrant is not, as has repeatedly been suggested, a legal black hole. Those who were arrested were treated with the same due process that other arrestees (including material witnesses) typically enjoy. People were not arrested on the Justice Department's whim; in each instance the arrest had to be approved by a U.S. district judge. Each witness was furnished with counsel, at public expense if necessary. Each was brought promptly before the court so that the arrestee could be advised by a detached authority about the basis for the arrest, and so that the court could be informed of, and could monitor, the detention. Although there is reason to question whether arrestees in such circumstances are actually entitled to be apprised of the information presented to the court in support of the arrest warrant, counsel for these arrestees were provided with that information.

Material-witness warrants, moreover, are not a limitless license to detain. Detainees were held for a reasonable and brief period â ” usually just a few days â ” that was necessary for their information to be provided. If, in the interim, evidence that they had committed crimes developed (if, for example, it became clear that they had lied to federal agents), they were then charged publicly with those crimes â ” in the normal course and under the ordinary procedures applicable to arrested defendants.

Much is also made of the purportedly sinister secrecy of these material-witness proceedings, but this too is overblown. Grand-jury proceedings are secret by law. Investigations should be secret for two critical reasons. First, they are not apt to succeed if those being investigated are alerted to all their details. Second, the mere fact of an investigation, and the suspicion it suggests, can unfairly besmirch an innocent person, causing him grievous personal and professional damage. It was absolutely proper, legally and ethically, that these detentions were not publicized. Lest we forget, in the aftermath of 9/11, the Justice Department had every incentive to demonstrate to the public that it was doing something. It was primarily the interest of the witnesses that was served by discretion â ” as it should have been.

IMMIGRATION ARRESTS
The other strategy employed was reliance on the immigration laws to detain persons of interest. Here, it is necessary to confront some uncomfortable facts.

First, simply stated, much of crime has an ethnic component. Criminal syndicates do not deem themselves bound by Title VII. The Latin Kings tend to be, well, Latin. When we investigate the Mafia, we do not seek its operatives out among the Dutch. In the 1980's, all those of Irish descent on Manhattan's West Side were not members of the Westies, but the Westies were indisputably an Irish gang. And militant Islam happens to be universally Islamic and predominantly Arab. While an alphabet's soup of activist organizations would have us pretend otherwise, that reality is relevant to an investigator's consideration but comes very far from meaning that ethnicity and religiosity, without more, render one under suspicion for crimes.

A second fact is that the terrorist support network is not a figment of governmental imagination. Militant Islam has been prosecuted repeatedly in the U.S. for over a decade. Numerous people, overwhelmingly Arab and Muslim, have been convicted by impartial juries in fair judicial proceedings for crimes related to terrorism and its facilitation. Others have pled guilty, openly acknowledging these crimes.

A third fact: The support network has tentacles in what is, objectively, an immigrant population. Again, contrary to activist propaganda, this does not mean that entire communities are suspected of criminality. But it does mean that investigations, if they are to be competent, must tread into those communities, and are sure, as night follows day, to encounter people who are of interest (whether as subjects or incidental witnesses) and who are in violation of the immigration laws.

Fact four: Violation of the immigration laws is not a trifle. An alien who has entered the U.S. illegally or has overstayed his lawful warrant is both committing a crime and bereft of legal entitlement to be here. Islamic interest groups and the rest of the immigration lobby have energetically sought to turn these presumptions on their heads. They invert terrorism investigations into a virtual immunity from immigration enforcement, such that if an illegal alien attracts investigative attention because of terrorism, and government is unable to establish that he is complicit in terrorism, government is somehow duty-bound to overlook the immigration violation. Were that so, of course, it would not only make a mockery of the law but would encourage lawlessness. Why would anyone play by the rules? Why would any immigrant honorably comport with the rigorous steps prescribed for lawful status and eventual citizenship if effortless illegality were the norm â ” placed beyond prosecution by, of all things, the proper attention of criminal investigators.

So yes, as the Times reports, the Justice Department ended up "detaining more than 700 illegal immigrants after the Sept. 11 attacks, most of whom turned out to have no connections to terrorism." They were detained, however, because they were illegal aliens. Their arrests would have been proper â ” however unlikely â ” even if 9/11 had never happened. Nor is there a suggestion that they were not given the due process legally required for suspected immigration violators. What they got for not being provably connected to terrorism was precisely what they were entitled to get: they weren't prosecuted for terrorism.

Undoubtedly, this rid the country of some percentage â ” perhaps a tiny one â ” of people who might have been a threat but could not be proved a threat. Is this insignificant? How could it be? Thousands of lives, untold billions in damages, and a war were among the incalculable costs of only 19 people who shouldn't have been here in the first place â ” i.e., less than three percent of 700.

The post-9/11 detentions were lawful, ethical, strategically appropriate, and involved an infinitesimal portion of the Muslim population in the United States. To have conducted the investigation in any other manner would have been grossly irresponsible. Secretary-designate Chertoff's involvement in that effort is a further credit to his distinguished legacy of service to the United States.

â ” Andrew C. McCarthy, who led the 1995 terrorism prosecution against Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman and eleven others, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.


 
This thread is an excellent read.

majoor never ceases to have facts for every issue at hand.

And all the others have backed there opinion very well.  It is nice to see an educated debate, instead of a verbal bashing.

This new war WWIV i don't think will ever be won.  There are to many factions in to many different areas of the globe.  Check out TKB.org

But it is a battle that must be waged.  It will stretch from our shores to those in Europe and Asia as well as beyond. This "war against the Muslims" has been going on since the Dark Ages and the Crusades what makes you think that we can finally stop or win it now?

What role will Canada play, very limited in my opinion.  Until a direct attack happens here, our government will keep its head buried in the sand.  On page two of this thread someone mentioned King during WWII.  That is the type of personality needed now in government.  But we will have to make due with those that continue to Cover Their A..  while the world moves on without us.  It is sad when one frustrates allies to the point of verbal embarrassment.



 
I agree with you Oz, but careful:

"This "war against the Muslims" '

It's not a War against Muslims, it's a war against terrorist states (eg, Afghanistan). I won't get into what the war in Iraq is, but needless to say I don't feel it fits exactly in that category.

You wouldn't want someone saying the War Against Christians would you?
 
Caesar said:
It's not a War against Muslims, it's a war against terrorist states (eg, Afghanistan). I won't get into what the war in Iraq is, but needless to say I don't feel it fits exactly in that category.

You wouldn't want someone saying the War Against Christians would you?

The Jihadis are openly calling for war against the "Jews and Crusaders", which pretty much answers the arguments about us having to be "sensitive' and 'multicultural". Of course they also have little hesitation about killing felow Muslims either, the ideal multicultural murderers.......
 
a_majoor said:
The Jihadis are openly calling for war against the "Jews and Crusaders", which pretty much answers the arguments about us having to be "sensitive' and 'multicultural". Of course they also have little hesitation about killing felow Muslims either, the ideal multicultural murderers.......

So we must answer there barbarism with barbarism of our own? We must kill all muslims, as they have called for the death of all Christians and Jews?

Sensitive? Since when is the opposition to the call for war against an entire religion 'sensitive'? I call it human.

Multicultural? Like it or not, we live in a multicultural society. If you want homogenous society, go to Saudi Arabia, Rwanda, or Croatia, or any other number of places that people flee from to come here.
 
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