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EV's, Gas/Oil, and The Future- another swerve split from- JT Hints Boosting Canada’s Military Spending

I’m pretty sure I’ve had this argument on here with you already, but “we can’t do anything because we’re too small of a population, so we’re not going to try” is not a great argument.

If we’re going to follow that line of thinking, there’s no point in Canada leading anything. 2%? Why bother - we’re too small to contribute. Domestically, we can’t end crime so why bother even trying?

A routine frustration I have with our politics is our left and right seeing international commitments that don't align with their politics as optional.

Liberals: 2% of GDP on defence was just an aspiration. We don't need to actually do it.

Conservatives: 40% below 2005 GHG levels was just an aspiration. We don't need to actually do it.
 
Liberals: 2% of GDP on defence was just an aspiration. We don't need to actually do it.

Conservatives: 40% below 2005 GHG levels was just an aspiration. We don't need to actually do it.
That's fair, but only one of those promises will have a measurable impact on global security. We also reward politicians who lie to us with continued employment. Until Canadians vote for action oriented truth tellers, we'll continue with no change.
 
That's fair, but only one of those promises will have a measurable impact on global security. We also reward politicians who lie to us with continued employment. Until Canadians vote for action oriented truth tellers, we'll continue with no change.
I’d argue that the effects of climate change will impact global security. Places getting too hot so folks start moving north (or south) from the equator, to name one example.

But to your second point, the election cycle reinforces a short-term approach, rather than a long-term one.
 
I’m pretty sure I’ve had this argument on here with you already, but “we can’t do anything because we’re too small of a population, so we’re not going to try” is not a great argument.

If we’re going to follow that line of thinking, there’s no point in Canada leading anything. 2%? Why bother - we’re too small to contribute. Domestically, we can’t end crime so why bother even trying?

Yes, my examples were hyperbolic but “F it, we can’t do anything anyway” is also hyperbolic.
In between, there's "do something if you can, but don't cripple your economy to do it".
 
I’d argue that the effects of climate change will impact global security. Places getting too hot so folks start moving north (or south) from the equator, to name one example.
Absolutely it will, but Canada's emissions are so small as a percentage of the global total that we could cut our CO2 in half tomorrow, destroy our economy in the process, and remove less than 1% of that global total.
 
Absolutely it will, but Canada's emissions are so small as a percentage of the global total that we could cut our CO2 in half tomorrow, destroy our economy in the process, and remove less than 1% of that global total.

Good thing nobody has suggested this strawman as actual policy.
 
Many countries don’t recycle and pollute the planet a hell of lot more than any Canadian can even comprehend. Start with cleaning up those countries and maybe we will get somewhere on a global scale. Suggesting that taxing every Canadian will help global temperatures is pure lunacy. These eco warriors and climate change activists should start with countries like India and China before taking a dump in their own backyards.
To suggest that pollution is somehow someone else’s problem is irresponsible. For carbon emissions, Canada is the 2nd worst per capita and 8th worst as a country for cumulative emissions. ( https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/CDIAC) For such a young country we have had a huge part in destroying the world. Mining in Canada has polluted the soil and water. The tar sands oil production has destroyed vast swaths of Alberta and is working its magic in Saskatchewan. Fisheries on the west coast are under further assault from the fossil (coal,gas & oil) fuel business.
We along with most of the western world have moved our worst polluting businesses to the far east. All those cheap throw away products that you’re buying thru Amazon are at the expense of the health of lives of people on the other side of the world. I say start cleaning up our own backyard before blaming everyone else. Stop pretending that it’s someone else’s problem, we’ve all had a part in making it.
 
To suggest that pollution is somehow someone else’s problem is irresponsible. For carbon emissions, Canada is the 2nd worst per capita and 8th worst as a country for cumulative emissions. ( https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/CDIAC) For such a young country we have had a huge part in destroying the world. Mining in Canada has polluted the soil and water. The tar sands oil production has destroyed vast swaths of Alberta and is working its magic in Saskatchewan. Fisheries on the west coast are under further assault from the fossil (coal,gas & oil) fuel business.
We along with most of the western world have moved our worst polluting businesses to the far east. All those cheap throw away products that you’re buying thru Amazon are at the expense of the health of lives of people on the other side of the world. I say start cleaning up our own backyard before blaming everyone else. Stop pretending that it’s someone else’s problem, we’ve all had a part in making it.

No Tragedy of the Commons problems have ever been solved by convincing people to act out of their own good graces. This one won't be either. We have to make our peace with that.

Personally, I'm a techno-optimist. We won't have the perfect solution. We'll definitively bust through 2°C. Places like Maldives will drown. But we'll probably avoid the absolute worst of it. And that's largely because of technology. My time on PG at NPS is what convinced me of this (ironically). Getting lectures from the scientists at US DoE and particularly NREL was really eye-opening. Turns out guys like Tony Seba weren't far off the mark.

I use a simple example. In 1997, if I told you that in 10 years, you could have a computer nearly as powerful as your desktop, with a touchscreen, a built in GPS and camera and it would cost a fraction of your desktop, would you have called me a visionary or laughed me out of the room? In 2007, Steve Jobs was on stage unveiling the iPhone. Easily 90% of people would probably have laughed at my prediction. The rest are folks who understand non-linear learning curves.

Using this same analogy with EVs, we're at about the year 2003 with EVs. Just look at the battery cost declines and then consider that at $100/kWh, the cost of vehicle with 200 km of range is cheaper than an equivalent sized gas vehicle.

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Of course, most of you here will argue that 200 km is not a lot of range. Of course, most of you have never lived in the third world where 200 km is a lot and petrol is insanely expensive for the average person. That's why India has a problem with unlicensed electric rickshaws, despite not handing out subsidies and having an unstable electric grid.


The good ol' boys in Calgary who think Africa and India will be their next growth markets should actually talk to some of those Indian and African middle class at some point about how much they are willing to spend on petrol to sit in their insane traffic for hours per day. The projections of developing world oil consumption kinda remind me of the projections of landlines for those countries in the 90s. They got telephones eventually. Just not in the way that most telecoms would have imagined in the 80s or 90s.

All that said, Canadians are blissfully ignorant of all the above. There's no point wasting your passion here. Just cheer on the economics and enjoy the ride.

Ps. Out of sheer dumb luck (family friend was a Waterloo sys eng grad doing an internship), I threw $5k at a small startup named Tesla when it IPO'd. Their crazy CEO was talking about cost curves and had an audacious plan to double global battery production with a single plant in Nevada. Musk paid for my very large in Indian wedding a few years later. Would have paid off the house if I held on. But I was a bit spooked after 10x returns.
 
The good ol' boys in Calgary who think Africa and India will be their next growth markets should actually talk to some of those Indian and African middle class at some point about how much they are willing to spend on petrol to sit in their insane traffic for hours per day.
Can't imagine anyone who's watched (or lived through) Chinese and Indian smog problems has much enthusiasm for ICE specifically, separate from personal vehicles generally.
 
Keep in mind that we went from horse to car in about 20 years while fighting a world war, developing the automotive and petroleum industries and a whole system of fuel delivery and networks of roads. There was a time when fuel for cars was sold in pharmacies. By comparison the switch from gas to electric is trivial. Everybody already has electricity at their house.

And for the average commuter doing 20-30 km a day, the regular 110V outlet is actually sufficient to charge overnight. It's just annoying to plug in every night. Hence why some folks install home chargers. Then again, people plug in their phones everyday. And like phones, inductive charging mats are on the way.

My bet is that Chinese EVs will displace legacy automakers all over the developing world. Most oil importing countries will happily cheer that on, to improve their own Balance of Payments. And eventually, when battery costs get low off, adoption will take off here without subsidies. In 10-15 years a lot of the loudest and most rabid opponents will drive EVs and pretend they were always supportive.

We'll still have gas cars. They'll be like mechanical watches today. Great enthusiast hobby and fashion accessory.
 
Can't imagine anyone who's watched (or lived through) Chinese and Indian smog problems has much enthusiasm for ICE specifically, separate from personal vehicles generally.

A huge part of what motivated the Chinese investment in EVs was their air quality problems. The Godfather of their EV sector (Wan Gang) was an auto engineer who actually worked at Audi in Germany. He realized that if the average Chinese was to have the fuel consumption of the average German, none of this was sustainable. The CCP was massively investing in auto development at that point. He convinced them that they would never catch the Germans on diesel or Americans on petrol, so they should leapfrog with electric. He quit his lucrative career in Europe and returned to China to set up their EV sector in the 2000s.

The recent panic over Chinese EVs is hilarious to me. Anybody following this was warning that this would come. Musk warned about it. Buffett invested in BYD. And yet nobody took it seriously. It was all laughed off. "Who will buy a Chinese car?" Well turns out for the right price a lot of people will. And turns out that most legacy automakers are not financially viable without sales in China and the rest of the developing world. Tariffs can keep Chinese EVs out of North America and Europe. They won't keep them out of the other 60% of the global auto market. And that is what keeps auto execs in Munich and Detroit up at night. They know their days are numbered if they can't find a way to actually compete.

Just to tie it back to the broader topic. A lot of these trends will be hitting over the next decade. With some of the early impacts showing up over next 5 years. I hope we have a government that is capable of sophisticated decision-making for what will undoubtedly be a difficult and complex world. AI is going to take white collar jobs. And cleantech like EVs could cap fossil fuel demand growth (which would kill capital investment in the oil patch). Slogans will not mean much then. Whoever is in charge will have to make difficult and unpopular choices.
 
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No it’s an effort to shift behaviour- maybe drive a similarly priced but more efficient vehicle
if he is like me, he didn't buy his 150 for the gas mileage but because he needed the truck bed for sand, top soil and lumber
So it's a redistribution of wealth from people who can afford a 2500sqft house and a F150 daily driver to people who want to live in condos. Got it.

F*ck your carbon tax.
My 150 is used to transport top soil, gravel, lumber etc. My neighbour uses his for bags of fertilizer, weed killers, water for the immigrant workers and on and on. Its 50 km. round trip to the nearest decent feed store and at 12 to 14 litres per hundred it costs a bundle to get there so whilst I attempt to refrain from Quirky's choice of English words I certainly share his sentiments as do all of my neighbours. It is absolutely wonderful that you can take advantage of the system. We can't and we have had to eat over half of the increase in shipping costs to stay competitive with produce farmers south of the border so profits are way down. A number are seriously talking of closing shop which will increase the cost of produce to you in your condo.
 
No it’s an effort to shift behaviour- maybe drive a similarly priced but more efficient vehicle
if he is like me, he didn't buy his 150 for the gas mileage but because he needed the truck bed for sand, top soil and lumber
We along with most of the western world have moved our worst polluting businesses to the far east. All those cheap throw away products that you’re buying thru Amazon are at the expense of the health of lives of people on the other side of the world. I say start cleaning up our own backyard before blaming everyone else. Stop pretending that it’s someone else’s problem, we’ve all had a part in making it.
Absolutely correct. Start with not buying anything that is Chinese because all of it is produced at the expense of someone's life on the other side of the world. Next avoid electric cars because harvesting the raw materials is literally killing someone: again on the other side of the world. finally, avoid constructing windmills because they are rotating abattoirs for wild fowl on land and destroying a struggling whale population at sea.
 
A number are seriously talking of closing shop which will increase the cost of produce to you in your condo.

Transport costs are like a few percentage points on groceries. I'm not the least bit worried. And again, that's what the rebate is for.

Here's a prediction I'm going to make. All your friends with precarious businesses are going to discover when the carbon tax goes away that their businesses aren't going to be any more viable. Oh and every one of their large competitors are electrifying so that they can run your friends into the dirt on distribution costs. Amazon alone has 100 000 electric delivery vehicles on order with Rivian. And I assure you that Jeff Bezos isn't making business decisions based on Canadian politics. That said, his business plans like these are helping kill Canada Post (one of the last postal services to electrify in the developed world).

Like I said, I'm ambivalent on the policy. If it goes away, so be it. But if it does, I hope we're not giving bailouts on the flip side to businesses too stupid to be competitive because they are hopped up on politics. See the automakers in 2010.

My 150 is used to transport top soil, gravel, lumber etc.

As per self-reported statistics and the number of clean trucks I see at Costco you're the exception not the rule. I actually appreciate people who use their vehicle for work and not to compensate for something else.
 
Or Korean, or Japanese... that line has been tried before, and I'm sitting in a Tacoma as I write this.

It's actually crazier when you think about it. In the 80s when Japanese and Korean cars were gaining ground in North America, that was in living memory of a lot of vets who fought those countries and had every reason to hate those products coming in.

By contrast we've never actually fought the Chinese. And the very people who complain about Chinese bogeyman love shopping for Chinese junk at Dollarama and Walmart and will label anybody who is going out of their way to support local businesses as some bougie elitist hippie. That's the image we have of people who shop at farmer's markets right?
 
It's actually crazier when you think about it. In the 80s when Japanese and Korean cars were gaining ground in North America, that was in living memory of a lot of vets who fought those countries and had every reason to hate those products coming in.

By contrast we've never actually fought the Chinese. And the very people who complain about Chinese bogeyman love shopping for Chinese junk at Dollarama and Walmart and will label anybody who is going out of their way to support local businesses as some bougie elitist hippie. That's the image we have of people who shop at farmer's markets right?

The Battle of Kapyong etc enter the chat.

516 Canadian troops were killed in the Korean War, including by the Chinese.

 
Transport costs are like a few percentage points on groceries. I'm not the least bit worried. And again, that's what the rebate is for.

Here's a prediction I'm going to make. All your friends with precarious businesses are going to discover when the carbon tax goes away that their businesses aren't going to be any more viable. Oh and every one of their large competitors are electrifying so that they can run your friends into the dirt on distribution costs. Amazon alone has 100 000 electric delivery vehicles on order with Rivian. And I assure you that Jeff Bezos isn't making business decisions based on Canadian politics. That said, his business plans like these are helping kill Canada Post (one of the last postal services to electrify in the developed world).

Like I said, I'm ambivalent on the policy. If it goes away, so be it. But if it does, I hope we're not giving bailouts on the flip side to businesses too stupid to be competitive because they are hopped up on politics. See the automakers in 2010.



As per self-reported statistics and the number of clean trucks I see at Costco you're the exception not the rule. I actually appreciate people who use their vehicle for work and not to compensate for something else.
I didn't say their businesses were teetering I said they were thinking of closing shop because their profit margins are reducing their quality of living. There are no large competitors anywhere in this region that are electrifying. 100 acres at 100,000 per acre makes a compelling argument for retirement. Electric tractors don't work. We combine until it gets tough which could be 3 in the morning or it could be 11 but at any rate batteries won't last that long. You either need two of everything to get through the day or to work an 8 hour shift only.
I can assure you that Jeff's electric delivery vans stay close to home. The highway trucks remain diesel.
 
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