Election 2011

[Journeyman]

Although Mr. Harper does have presence, he comes off as a cold fish on TV. Most voters can't get past that, when you compare him with a more dynamic, engaging Jack Layton.

I don't believe that "most voters" have actually seen Harper speak on TV or in public, with most being too lazy to inform themselves of even the basic campaign issues and policies.

For the masses of sheeple, from what I overheard while waiting in line at the Advance Poll and around town, "we're not the Conservatives" is as close to political thinking as many get.

 

[George Wallace]

Although Mr. Harper does have presence, he comes off as a cold fish on TV. Most voters can't get past that, when you compare him with a more dynamic, engaging Jack Layton.

Yes.  But would you seriously buy a car from Jack Layton?  I'd ask for a second opinion from another mechanic, if I was ever in that car lot.

 

[a_majoor]

Yes, the almighty "image" problem.

I have had occasion to see both the Prime Minister and Young Dauphin in person, and believe me, their impressions in person are 3200 mils from what we are shown on TV....

If we could only get everyone in Canada to meet them in person, we would not have to worry about a CPC majority  ;D OR the political future of the Young Dauphin  > ...

 

[Pencil Tech]

I can't wait to hear what some of the Harper cheerleaders around here have to say when he scraps the PLD.

 

[OldSolduer]

I can't wait to hear what some of the Harper cheerleaders around here have to say when he scraps the PLD.

PLD, as far as I know, is not controlled by the PM. Am I right or right out of it?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I can't wait to hear what some of the Harper cheerleaders around here have to say when he scraps the PLD.

You mean when the Treasury Board, which seems to answer to no one, scraps it. Let's put the blame proper. Otherwise you risk sounding like one of those misinformed, too lazy to research, politically ignorant anti Harper screech monkeys.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I hope the Conservative tacticians are taking a close look at the 2004 general election.

In the 5th week the polls predicted a real cliff-hanger; it looked like a toss-up between a Conservative or Liberal minority. Then Paul Martin pulled the thing out of the fire in the last week - over the last week-end, actually. He made a frantic, almost mad dash across Canada - stumping five or six riding in two or three provinces each day. Harper relaxed. My assessment is that many, many Canadian voters saw that Martin really wanted the PM's job; he wanted Canadians' votes and Harper was taking them for granted.

On the day the 5th week polls were wrong: Martin beat Harper by over 800,000 votes and he got 135 seats to Harper's 99. I think that frenetic long weekend was a major factor in Martin's success.

In 2011 three long, hard days (this coming Fri, Sat, Sun) in NL, NB, QC, ON and BC - ending up, Sunday evening, in Calgary, might save the Conservatives from an embarrassing finish, might even produce a slim majority.

I think Canadians want their potential leaders to work for the job - that includes Stephen Harper.

 

[Dissident]

You mean when the Treasury Board, which seems to answer to no one, scraps it. Let's put the blame proper. Otherwise you risk sounding like one of those misinformed, too lazy to research, politically ignorant anti Harper screech monkeys.

What he said.

 

[PuckChaser]

Most voters can't get past that, when you compare him with a more dynamic, engaging Jack Layton.

Used car saleman dynamic though, he'll promise everything under the sun because he won't have to account for it later.

 

[Edward Campbell]

You mean when the Treasury Board, which seems to answer to no one, scraps it. Let's put the blame proper. Otherwise you risk sounding like one of those misinformed, too lazy to research, politically ignorant anti Harper screech monkeys.

There will be a new President of the Treasury Board (the cabinet minister in change) after the election because the current incumbent, Stockwell Day, is retiring. His deputy, Secretary of the Treasury Board, Michelle d'Auray will be looking for direction to shrink the costs of government and allowances will come under scrutiny. It is unlikely that the military's PLD will be treated in isolation. Cost of living allowances for public servants in isolated posts and overseas will also have to be examined.

 

[dapaterson]

Treasury Board is a statutory committee of cabinet.  Thus, the Prime Minister should be held accountable for the decisions of his subordinates who sit and make decisions when acting as Treasury Board.

However, any complaints about possible future actions by possible future sittings of TB are quite premature.


(It should be noted, though, that the largest groups in the public service recently agreed to 1.75%, 1.5% and 2% pay increases for the next three years, and surrendered future accumulation of severance pay to get those increases.  Inflation is currently running 3.3%, so if the public service is seeing reductions in real wages, the military should also prepare for some belt-tightening in the near term.)

 

[George Wallace]

This is just brilliant:

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Layton willing to reopen Constitution, but not right away
Tuesday, April 26, 2011 | 4:28 PM


LINK

New Democrat Party Leader Jack Layton said that while Quebec's exclusion from the Constitution "can't go on forever," he said an NDP government would wait to open constitutional negotiations until "there is some reasonable chance of success."

Layton addressed the issue of Quebec signing on to the Constitution during a Tuesday campaign stop in Montreal. Layton is riding a wave of surging support in Quebec, where polling shows the NDP neck-and-neck with the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec, and in a statistical tie with the Liberals for second place nationally.

Layton said Tuesday he would take steps to bring the province into the constitutional fold, but only when the conditions ensured "there is some reasonable chance of success.

"It's not a question of appeasing anybody. We have an historic problem. We have a quarter of our population who have never signed the Constitution. That can't go on forever," Layton said.

According to the NDP leader, efforts to reopen constitutional talks with Quebec would begin with creating "those winning conditions, and that starts by replacing the Harper government, by respecting the people of Quebec and their hopes and aspirations and starting to take steps in the House of Commons to show Quebecers there's an appreciation of some of the key issues."

But Layton was also clear that constitutional negotiations with Quebec would not be an NDP government's first priority.

"We don't see it as an immediate issue," he said. "The issues of immediate concern to people are getting a job, the fact that they don't have doctors, the retirement security issues."

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper was also in Quebec Tuesday morning, one of numerous stops he has made in the province.

Harper kicked off his day in the mining town of Asbestos, Que., and will wrap up in Ottawa. The Conservative leader is striving to stay on message and to avoid any last minute gaffes that could compromise his lead.

However, he responded to Layton's comments by saying that answering decades-old constitutional questions is not a priority for most Canadians, whether they live inside or outside Quebec.

"They do not want an unstable government that is going to spend time arguing about the Constitution," Harper said. "We went through that for 20 years."

NDP poised for Quebec breakthrough

The NDP currently has just one MP in Quebec, deputy leader Thomas Mulcair, but according to some projections the party could garner as many as 14 or 15 seats in the May 2 election if poll numbers hold true, said CTV's parliamentary correspondent Richard Madan.

That has Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe scrambling to maintain his own support, even bringing out separatist icon Jacques Parizeau on Monday to warn people about the risks of voting for the New Democrats.

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is also feeling pressure from Layton's surging support and has broadened the focus of his attacks in recent days to include both Harper and Layton. That began Monday when the Liberals aired a new attack ad that accused Layton and Harper of being two sides of the same coin.

And on Tuesday a Liberal news release took aim at the NDP over what it referred to as "empty promises on health care."

The release questioned Layton's pledge to hire 1,200 doctors and 6,000 nurses at an estimated cost of $25 million per year, saying the math simply doesn't add up.

Hiring that many medical professionals "amounts to an annual salary of $3,472 per year. Is that enough to hire 7,200 new medical professionals? Not a chance, Jack," the release states.

Ignatieff begins his day in Vancouver after travelling there from Thunder Bay, Ont., on Monday. Later Tuesday he will once again head east to Winnipeg for the night.

With the party's surging fortunes the New Democrats can expect to face tougher scrutiny from their opponents in the six remaining days before Canadians go to the polls, Madan said.

"Definitely the wildcard is the NDP. They could really have an enormous breakthrough or play the spoiler and upset the balance in these key critical ridings," Madan said.

In a sit-down interview with CTV Montreal Tuesday, Layton said he was not surprised by his party's surge in Quebec, saying that he had been hoping for a breakthrough in the province of his birth.

"We've been building toward this for a long time," Layton said. "I'm a guy who was born and grew up here in Quebec, so certainly it's been a dream of mine for the NDP, whose values are close to the values of the people I grew up with."

When asked if he thinks the polling numbers are believable, Layton responded with "I think they are (but) we'll see how it all comes down. Polls are polls."

The NDP's growing support in Quebec represents a serious threat to Ignatieff and the Liberals, said University of Toronto politics professor Nelson Wiseman.

"Some pollsters are saying this earthquake in Quebec is developing into a tsunami in the rest of the country and we don't know if we're going to have a nuclear meltdown for the Liberals," he told CTV's Canada AM.

Polling released on Monday by Nanos Research showed the NDP edging just ahead of the Bloc in Quebec for first place, though within the margin of error meaning the two parties were in a statistical tie.

Wiseman said an unprecedented showing in Quebec would represent a huge shift for the NDP.

"If the NDP really does make a breakthrough in Quebec and wins 30 or 40 seats it would mean more seats there than in the rest of Canada, and that's never happened and it would be a total reorientation of the NDP," Wiseman said.

He said many of the NDP's candidates in Quebec are inexperienced and are considered "sacrificial lambs" with no chance of winning. However, if the polls hold true, they could easily find themselves in government.

Layton denied that his party's candidates aren't yet ready to serve in government, saying they are from diverse professional backgrounds such as the law, teaching and community organizing.

"I'm very optimistic that we've got the right mix that will represent the full range of opinions that you find here in Quebec around the key issues," Layton said. "So I'm looking forward to having a diverse group of Quebecers around our caucus table."

Video on LINK



Does Used Car Salesman come to mind ?

 

[mariomike]

Although Mr. Harper does have presence, he comes off as a cold fish on TV. Most voters can't get past that, when you compare him with a more dynamic, engaging Jack Layton.

Through my employment, I met Councillor Layton from time to time going back 30 years. Makes me feel old seeing him on TV now.
This is not a political opinion. Just agreeing with your post, based on what I remember, before he went into federal politics.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is an interesting analysis of the Liberals' dilemma:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ignatieff-implores-canadians-to-return-to-the-centrist-fold/article1999515/

Ignatieff implores Canadians to return to the centrist fold

JOHN IBBITSON
VANCOUVER— Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Tuesday, April 26, 2011

With time almost run out, and the very future of his party at stake, a besieged Michael Ignatieff is urging Canadians to avoid the call of the Conservative right and the NDP left, and restore Canada’s Liberal tradition of government from the centre.

“This country has been governed from the centre for 140 years,” the Liberal Leader reminded voters Tuesday. “That’s why Canadians have given their confidence to the Liberal Party. They don’t want a government of the left. They don’t want a government of the right.”

Except that the centre appears to be evaporating.

There are only five campaigning days left until Election Day and Stephen Harper’s Conservatives appear poised to win the most votes and the most seats on May 2. When Parliament next convenes, Mr. Harper is on track to meet the House as prime minister.

But that’s not the news. The news, as everyone must know by now, is that the Bloc Québécois’s support in Quebec is plummeting, the NDP is surging there and in other parts of the country, and the Liberals are fighting to survive as the Official Opposition – a fight some polls say they are losing.

To fall into third place nationally would bring the very future of the Liberal Party into question. And so Mr. Ignatieff sought to reassert what was, until very recently, conventional wisdom.

“If you vote for Mr. Layton, you’re going to get a Harper minority government. If you vote for Mr. Duceppe, you’re going to get a Harper minority government,” he said.

“The only party that can actually replace the Harper government … is the Liberal Party of Canada.”

Calling the NDP “a bunch of Boy Scouts,” the Liberal Leader lambasted Mr. Layton’s demand that Canadian soldiers pull out of Afghanistan immediately. He derided the NDP’s internal split over whether to preserve or scrap the gun registry.

And he accused Mr. Layton of promising in Quebec to reopen the Constitution to meet Quebec’s concerns, while down-playing the issue elsewhere

“He soft-pedals the constitutional stuff in English, and pushes the pedal down in French,” Mr. Ignatieff told reporters.

“You’ve got to say the same thing in English and French,” he told reporters. “You’ve got to say the same in Quebec as in the rest of Canada.”

As for Mr. Harper, he said, voters across the country are sending him the same message: “Throw this guy out. And now’s the time to do it.”

But polling suggest Mr. Harper will not be thrown out, unless the opposition parties unite to do so. In that case, for Mr. Ignatieff to become prime minister, the Liberals must have substantially more seats than the NDP in the House of Commons. Otherwise, he could find himself being asked to support a minority government led by the second-place NDP under Mr. Layton.

That’s a possibility Mr. Ignatieff is not prepared even to discuss.

“If my aunt had a lower voice, would she be my uncle?” he jested, when asked the question. “With the greatest respect, I’m fighting to win the next election.”

First: Ignatieff is right – Canadians are, by and large, centrist and that accounts for King, St. Laurent, Pearson, Chrétien and Martin, decades of Liberal government.

Second: Ibbitson is wrong – the centre is not evaporating, it is still there but Prince Michael and the Liberal Party of Toronto abandoned it and Harper and his legions from the small towns and suburbs and the West moved in.

Third: This is the crux of the matter – ”...  the Liberals are fighting to survive as the Official Opposition – a fight some polls say they are losing ... To fall into third place nationally would bring the very future of the Liberal Party into question.”

Absent some (actually rather a lot of) divine intervention next week, Harper will be prime minister and it is unlikely that Jack and Gilles will have much inclination to swap him for Ignatieff. That means Ignatieff will resign as Liberal Party leader and, most likely, we will see a pitched battle between Toronto and Montreal for the party's leadership.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from Wilfred Laurier University's LISPOP, is an analysis of the orange tsunami that I, personally, find a little more probable:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog2011/?p=115#more-115

“Orange Surge” is no tsunami

April 25th, 2011

By Geoffrey Stevens

With seven days left until the election, let’s see if we can factor in a little perspective and common sense.

Start with the New Democratic Party. Its “orange surge” of recent days – leading to fevered speculation that it would supplant the Bloc Quebecois as number one in Quebec and the Liberals as number two in Ottawa – has been the most arresting development in an otherwise listless election campaign.

Although the orange surge does not look like a tsunami, it has excited the news media, alarmed the other parties, and fuelled a new round of attack ads, this time aimed at Jack Layton and his followers. It has even forced Prime Minister Stephen Harper to vary his standard Teleprompter speech to warn Canadians that the Coalition of Evil would be even more evil if it were led by Raging Socialists instead of Grasping Grits. Canadians could wake up on May 3 to find Layton in bed at 24 Sussex – and how would the country survive that?

Perspective suggests we have been there before, in the 1980s when Ed Broadbent was the most popular national leader. Although the great breakthrough did not occur, Broadbent did win 43 seats in the 1988 election. Those 43 seats remain the NDP’s high-water mark. (It is worth noting that in the next election, in 1993, when the vote split very differently, the NDP was reduced to nine seats.)

In the most recent election, in 2008, they took 37 seats. In this campaign, Layton seems to have connected personally with Canadians in a way that neither Harper nor Michael Ignatieff has been able to. Common sense would suggest the NDP will equal or surpass its 2008 total, but not by enough to capture 24 Sussex or Stornoway, the residence of the leader of the opposition.

What we don’t know, and can’t know, is how many of the “loose fish” who have swum to the NDP in recent days are converts and how many are treading water until they decide where best to place their strategic ballot to block a Harper majority.

Common sense also suggests the Liberals are not about to collapse the way they did in 1984 when they won only 40 seats. In Ignatieff, they have a leader who is stronger, more effective and more popular than his predecessor, Stéphane Dion. The party is better organized, more cohesive, and seems to be adequately financed. The prospect of a Conservative majority has mobilized Liberal troops, bringing out supporters who stayed home last time.

The Conservatives seem impervious to the campaigns raging around them. Their candidates sound like mini-Steves, as they faithfully recite his mantra. Take credit for the economic recovery. Blame the opposition for forcing an unnecessary election. Attack his enemies for trying to usurp power. Warn of the peril the country’s economy and, indeed, its unity would face if Canadians fail to elect a stable majority Conservative government.

There is no evidence that the Harper message or the party’s attack ads are getting through to large numbers of voters, aside from Tory core supporters. That’s why the Conservative numbers have barely budged since the election call. They went into the campaign just shy of a majority (155 seats), and they are still there, according to most polls.

Sixty per cent of Canadians may not want Stephen Harper as prime minister. The question is, will they do something about it?

My instinct is they will not. But instinct and common sense go only so far. Who would have thought that a lightly regarded, unilingual Prairie orator by the name of John Diefenbaker would win 208 seats in 1958, including 50 in Quebec where the Conservatives had previously had no presence at all? More recently, the Tories went into the 1993 election with a majority government. They emerged with just two seats in all of Canada.

The electorate seldom moves en masse. When it does, no one can gauge how far it will go.

(published April 25, 2011 in Waterloo Region Record andGuelph Mercury)

Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens, an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail, teaches political science at Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Guelph. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens@sympatico.ca

This seems like a far more likely scenario: NDP with, say, 45 seats and the BQ with, say, 40. That leaves 223 seats for the Conservatives and Liberals to split. I agree with Geoffrey Stevens that the Liberals will not fall to their historic low (1984) of 40 seats, but I think (maybe I just hope) that they will fall a lot, to, say, just for the sake of argument, 68 (from 77 at dissolution). That leaves 155 for the Conservatives – the barest majority.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is a new wrinkle: who are these guys and gals?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/andrew-steele/jack-laytons-risky-potential-mps-in-quebec/article1999595/

Jack Layton’s risky potential MPs in Quebec

ANDREW STEELE
Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Tuesday, April 26, 2011

What is clear from recent polling data is that the NDP may wind up grabbing a few seats – and maybe a lot more than a few – from La Belle Province.

What is not clear is who will be filling those seats.
Parties often run “pylons” in traditionally non-viable seats, placeholders who are simply a name on a ballot. They may not live in the riding, or even bother to show up. For many of the Quebec ridings now in play, we could be seeing a convoy of pylons down the highway to Ottawa.

A handful of the Quebec NDP candidates are well known and solid.

Tom Mulclair is a sitting MP and possible future party leader.

Françoise Boivin in Gatineau is a former Liberal MP who changed parties after being defeated in 2006.

But after that, the kind of people about to head to Ottawa may surprise potential NDP voters in Quebec and the rest of the country.

For instance, Lawrence Cannon’s seat in Pontiac is the kind the NDP can win if these numbers hold.

The candidate there is Mathieu Ravignat, who ran for the Communist Party in 1997.

A moving story in the Montreal Mirror describes the young Mr. Ravignat and his commitment to Communism, weeping over the seizure of the party’s book collection along with its other assets after failing to field enough candidates to retain official status in 1993.

Alexandre Boulerice, the NDP candidate in Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie remains an “independentiste,” and continues to be a member of Quebec Solidaire, a provincial sovereigntist party.

Recently, he told Le Devoir that “anyone can be in the NDP who defends the platform” and that he is putting social and environmental issues ahead of “the national question.” (My translation.)

In a few ridings, the candidates are simple placeholders.

Reporters have been unable to contact the NDP candidates in Bas-Richelieu–Nicolet–Bécancour and in St-Maurice-Champlain.

Of one NDP candidate, local media wrote: “Other than knowing she is 71 years old, we don’t know even where she resides.” (Again, my translation.)

Others work and live at the other end of the province from the riding they may represent.
And this is just the result of a few Google searches. Who knows what fell between key words and my inadequate French.

We may only find out around the same time as Jack Layton, when the new MPs show up in Ottawa and open their mouths in front of a microphone.

We may have some real fun in 2011!

 

[ModlrMike]

I think we have to remember that today's numbers are a product of two low ball polls conducted for EKOS and Environics. Both have the Torries at 10 points lower than anyone else, thereby dragging the numbers down. Personally I think the "Orange Crush" is only inches deep. Not really a wave, more of a ripple.

Of course I could be wrong.

 

[Rifleman62]

Further: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-candidate-takes-mid-campaign-vacation-in-vegas/article1999879/

Picture Caption: NDP candidate Ruth Ellen Brosseau, who is running in the Quebec riding of Berthier-Maskinonge.

NDP candidate takes mid-campaign vacation in Vegas

OTTAWA — Globe and Mail Update - Bill Curry - Tuesday, April 26, 2011 7:03PM EDT

Some NDP candidates in Quebec might be itching for a trip to Vegas given their sudden run of good luck in the polls.

One of them has already jumped the gun.

Ruth Ellen Brosseau is the party’s candidate in Berthier-Maskinongé, a riding north of the Saint Lawrence between Montreal and Trois-Rivières.

Until last week, she'd been working in Ottawa – about three hours away from the riding – as an assistant manager of Oliver's Pub, on the Carleton University campus.

And this week?

“She’s actually in Las Vegas,” says her boss, Rod Castro. When first asked about Ms. Brosseau’s candidacy, Mr. Castro told The Globe and Mail that there must be a mistake. But after looking her up online, he confirmed the candidate and his colleague are one and the same.

“This is all news to me,” he said, noting that she has never mentioned politics in the more than two years they have worked together as the bar’s only two full-time staff members.

Yet Ms. Brosseau and many other NDP candidates in Quebec may be in line for a ticket to the House of Commons next week, according to recent polls. An updated seat projection by EKOS predicts the NDP could win 51 of Quebec’s 75 seats.

That would mean victory for the party’s higher-profile candidates like former MP Françoise Boivin in Gatineau and actor Tyrone Benskin in Verdun, but it would also mean wins for candidates who are virtual unknowns and may not even live in the ridings they seek to represent.

NDP spokeswoman Kathleen Monk said Ms. Brosseau’s vacation was booked before the election was called.

“She couldn’t cancel her vacation at the last minute. She’s a single mother who booked an inexpensive fare,” Ms. Monk wrote in an e-mail, which did not address how much time the candidate has spent in the riding or why she was selected. “New Democrats try and encourage people to get involved in politics, and running in a riding where we are building for the future is an excellent way to get started.”

The vast majority of the party’s Quebec candidates don’t list any contact information with their profiles on the NDP sites. The slate of Quebec candidates includes union leaders, teachers and a Cree leader, Romeo Saganash.

Others are still in school.

Two candidates running for office are Charmaine Borg in Terrebonne-Blainville and Matthew Dubé in Chambly-Borduas. The two are co-presidents of the McGill NDP club. Mr. Dubé’s posts on Twitter are largely devoted to hockey, comic books and computer games, with the occasional forward of tweets by NDP Leader Jack Layton.

Another, Sana Hassainia, who is running for the NDP in Verchères-Les Patriotes, makes no mention on her Twitter page of her NDP connections, except when asked by others to confirm that she is in fact the NDP candidate.

The latest EKOS survey has the NDP polling at 38.2 per cent in Quebec, ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 24.4 per cent, the Conservatives at 19 per cent and the Liberals at 14.7 per cent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

The regional numbers are a subsection of a larger national survey of 2,532 Canadians conducted between April 23-25.

Mr. Graves, the EKOS pollster, said he does not think issues like on-the-ground organization or the quality of a local candidate will mater given the strength of support for the NDP in Quebec right now.

“I’m guessing that this is kind of pan-Quebec, it’s so strong,” he said. “The Bloc are going to lose a lot of seats.”

Mr. Layton has said his slate of Quebec candidates represents all parts of society and defended the fact that there are also some students representing the party. He noted that the party already has one of the youngest MP in the House of Commons: Niki Ashton, 29, of Manitoba.

“We need all sorts of people,” Mr. Layton told reporters in Montreal over the weekend. “I think that’s great for democracy.”

When asked Tuesday about the low number of NDP campaign offices in the province, Mr. Layton would only say they had several.

“We're using all the techniques to get out the votes. Sometimes we use offices, sometimes we use networks of volunteers,” he said.

This election is quite the change for habitual NDP candidates who have run and lost several times.

Philip Toone, a notary and teacher in Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine, has run and lost for the NDP in Quebec twice before. This time, he said, it is clearly different.

“It’s widespread and omnipresent,” he said of the NDP support in the riding. Mr. Toone is one of several NDP candidates who do not have a campaign office. There is no big machine to identify and get out the vote, but Mr. Toone doesn’t expect that will be a problem.

“As far as I can tell, I might very well have won it already,” he said.

For Mr. Castro, the NDP wave in Quebec could mean he’ll have to find a new assistant manager at Oliver’s – an election result he certainly wasn’t expecting.

“She’d requested vacation – which obviously we granted to her – and she said her plan was to go to Las Vegas,” he said of Ms. Brosseau, who could not be reached by The Globe. “That’s as much information as I knew.”

 

[Brad Sallows]

The reason it is a dog fight is because the Bloc doesn't have to work too hard to take between one-half and two-thirds of the seats in Quebec (roughly one-eight to one-sixth of all seats in Canada, which is easily enough to make the difference between win/loss and majority/minority) out of play for the Big 3.  Customarily in a two-party system or even in our long-standing three-party tradition, a vote lost to one potential governing party usually means a vote gained for the other potential governing party (ie. a net two vote difference).  A vote for the Bloc is never a gain for a potential government party.  Too many people underestimate that subtle difference in arithmetic when criticizing the LPC and CPC, and particularly when criticizing Harper's "failure" to obtain a majority.  For those who think Chretien is a yardstick against which to measure Harper, what changed since Chretien was able to cruise to successive majorities on the backs of a split vote on the right is that the vote on the right became unsplit.  An appropriate comparison to Harper is Paul Martin, who didn't achieve very well against a reunified "right".  That is the reality faced by the CPC and the LPC until a majority government can consign the Bloc to irrelevancy for four or five years.

The Liberal seat count was not very high at dissolution - a  quarter of all the seats in Parliament for one of the Big 2; think about what that means - and is not predicted to increase, so there's the verdict on the state of the Liberal party and its leader.  People do think the Liberals currently stink; it's just harder to notice with the Bloc drawing a share of seats.

It is no statement at all that Harper finds it hard to convince people he deserves a majority.  First, there is the aforementioned reason: the bar for majority has been raised and was as far out of reach for someone with Martin's mythical reputation as a deficit-buster as it is for Harper.  Second, it is always harder to campaign with a record than to be able to offer sunshine and roses from the vacuous position of the opposition benches.  Third, many progressive voters and nearly all of the organized sh!t-disturbing left-of-centre partisans in Canada sometime between 1993 and 2006 failed to recognize that the splintering of the PC party was an unusual event and forgot that the natural and healthy state of two- or multi-party democracy is for different parties to hold a majority - as soon as the dust settled on the 2006 minority result they wanted back in the driver's seat, then and forever, and they have been yapping like toy dogs incessantly, wasting time, money, and the public's attention on mostly chickensh!t issues in the hopes of reconnecting themselves to the public teat.  The idea that we should no longer alternate between two if not three parties - more than any fiddling about by the CPC at the margins - is the single greatest threat to our democratic institutions.

Get rid of the Bloc.  Allow the CPC to govern with a majority for perhaps two terms out of five.  Those are the prescriptions for political and social health in Canada.  Anything else is ultimately a path to political fracture; there's no point remaining in a club which won't let you sit in the comfy chairs once in a while.

 

[canada94]

I think we have to remember that today's numbers are a product of two low ball polls conducted for EKOS and Environics. Both have the Torries at 10 points lower than anyone else, thereby dragging the numbers down. Personally I think the "Orange Crush" is only inches deep. Not really a wave, more of a ripple.

Of course I could be wrong.

I agree I can't see the "NDP Rush" actually being anything serious. Especially in regards to becoming the Official opposition.


ps. On a side note I wish other members (non- Conservatives) could speak their mind to! I would love to hear what they have to say.. which as far as my reading has gone I have not witnessed any.

Mike!