Election 2011

[GR66]

What a sorry statement on the quality of leadership and the state of politics in general in our poor country. 

The only one that in my opinion didn't have a very poor performance was Layton who has the benefit of being able to promise anything under the sun without risk of having to actually ever keep any of his promises.  Even at that Iggy's attempt to call him on the fact was a pathetic "you've never been the government".  Any hopes the Liberals have of making gains in the election depend on ending the vote splitting of the Conservative's opponents. 

Harper's handlers I'm sure just pushed the strategy to just stay on message and look "Prime Ministerial".  That he did...and did a disservice to Canadians in the process I think.  Corporate tax rates were one of the major discussion points throughout the debate and all he can muster was "there are no new corporate tax cuts".  He hides behind semantics (he's "technically" right...the rate reductions still coming aren't "new"...they've already been approved).  Instead of trusting Canadians to understand reason and explaining WHY the ongoing tax cuts SHOULD continue...he hides behind wording to give the impression that corporate tax rates aren't being lowered. 

Fortunately for Harper, Iggy & Jack's responses were totally incompetent.  What the hell happened to the great "Harvard Debater"?  They could have said "What was the corporate tax rate in 2010?  What is it now in 2011?  What will it be in 2012?  Is that not a tax cut???".  When Harper suggested that raising the rate (or halting the cuts?) would drive away investment why didn't anyone compare Canada's corporate tax rate (15-18% depending on the party) to the US corporate tax rate (35%-ish if I remember right)? 

I don't know why I still get suprised, disappointed and frustrated by the poor quality of the debate and of our political class.  Maybe I should just learn to stay down instead of continuing to try and get back up in naive hope. 

 

[dapaterson]

I was half-watching and listening while sitting in a pub, having a pint or two.  They helped make it less painful to watch.

 

[a_majoor]

I don't understand why anyone would be surprised to see the NDP making gains in Quebec. A Social Democrat party will have similar policy planks to a National Socialist party, with the added advantage that the NDP is a national party with greater access to resources (especially in the post 2014 time period, when it will be possible to form majority governments without reference to Quebec). This is just people starting to react to the changing trends in society, demographics and economics.

The Liberals are Socialist Lite, why vote for them when you can get the real thing?

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

When Harper suggested that raising the rate (or halting the cuts?) would drive away investment why didn't anyone compare Canada's corporate tax rate (15-18% depending on the party) to the US corporate tax rate (35%-ish if I remember right)? 

Comparing tax rates is tough.  Provincial income taxes almost double Canadian taxes while state taxes are less to none in the US.  US taxes are graduated, Canadian taxes are less so.  It's a bit of a case of comparing apples and oranges.  Canadian rates appear to be cheaper but not as much as it appears at first sight.

 

[ekpiper]

One point on the Corporate tax rates that I've discovered recently is that while the Federal corporate rate is 16.5% now, Provincial tax is another 2-16%.  Thus, when you look at the world state of affairs, we seem to be quite average.

The Opposition leaders also seem to think that raising taxes is a solidly known quantity, when in fact it could cause companies to not invest and/or lower current investment, lowering the total earnings of companies in Canada, causing tax revenue to go down, even with a higher tax rate.  If that will happen, and by how much is an unknown quantity, but we'll only find out after the fact.

Neither fact was spelled out clearly by the Conservatives during the debate.

 

[Jed]

One point on the Corporate tax rates that I've discovered recently is that while the Federal corporate rate is 16.5% now, Provincial tax is another 2-16%.  Thus, when you look at the world state of affairs, we seem to be quite average.

The Opposition leaders also seem to think that raising taxes is a solidly known quantity, when in fact it could cause companies to not invest and/or lower current investment, lowering the total earnings of companies in Canada, causing tax revenue to go down, even with a higher tax rate.  If that will happen, and by how much is an unknown quantity, but we'll only find out after the fact.

Neither fact was spelled out clearly by the Conservatives during the debate.

The average voter will not be able to follow a technical explanation of how and why the corporate tax rate should be what it is, especially during a free for all debate such as we saw last night. People will only change their vote if they begin to trust the individual speaking. Who really knows that magic formula on how to win the trust from the man on the street? From what I have seen, it is far easier to lose trust in your speaker. In my opinion, Ignatief and Duceppe lost at lot more trust than Layton or Harper.

 

[57Chevy]

Ignatieff is likely to win a lot of votes on this one, especially in and around Montreal
Got mine 

article:
Canadians need not fear replacing Harper: Ignatieff
By Mike De Souza, Postmedia News April 13, 2011 9:36 AM
http://www.canada.com/news/Canadians+need+fear+replacing+Harper+Ignatieff/4568597/story.html
---
"This government has patched the Champlain Bridge enough," he said. "It's time for a new bridge. It's that simple."

He said work on a new bridge would start early in the mandate of a Liberal government.

"It's our promise and we must start right away," he said. "There is engineering work (to do), environmental studies, and we must do this quickly because the (existing) bridge is reaching the end of its life in 10 years. We need a new bridge well before 10 years. This is a promise of the party. It's the promise of our team."

He added that the bridge was not just one for Montreal or its south shore but for all of Canada.
---

 

[Rifleman62]

Who was the only one wearing a Cdn flag lapel pin?

Iggy lacked grit!

 

[George Wallace]

Ignatieff is likely to win a lot of votes on this one, especially in and around Montreal
Got mine 

article:
Canadians need not fear replacing Harper: Ignatieff
By Mike De Souza, Postmedia News April 13, 2011 9:36 AM
http://www.canada.com/news/Canadians+need+fear+replacing+Harper+Ignatieff/4568597/story.html
---
"This government has patched the Champlain Bridge enough," he said. "It's time for a new bridge. It's that simple."

He said work on a new bridge would start early in the mandate of a Liberal government.

"It's our promise and we must start right away," he said. "There is engineering work (to do), environmental studies, and we must do this quickly because the (existing) bridge is reaching the end of its life in 10 years. We need a new bridge well before 10 years. This is a promise of the party. It's the promise of our team."

He added that the bridge was not just one for Montreal or its south shore but for all of Canada.
---

Am I wrong in thinking that there are already plans for a bridge to connect Hwy 30 to Hwy 20 to the West of Montreal?  If so, then this promise isn't a promise at all.

 

[57Chevy]

Am I wrong in thinking that there are already plans for a bridge to connect Hwy 30 to Hwy 20 to the West of Montreal?  If so, then this promise isn't a promise at all.

Wrong side of the island George
The Champlain bridge connects toward the eastern townships.

 

[vonGarvin]

Layton can debate well, but physically just looks so sick. I hope his campaigning doesn't make his health take a turn for the worse.

I agree on both points.  I hope that his zeal to lead the NDP doesn't lead him down to further detriment of his health.

 

[Redeye]

Who was the only one wearing a Cdn flag lapel pin?

If that's an issue to anyone or any sort of weight in the debate, then things are far worse in this country than I ever might have suspected.

I only caught the last hour of the debate on the drive home.  It seemed a little better than any I remembered, though nothing really of substance, nothing compelling from anyone.  Jack Layton, as usual, was probably the best of the bunch, he delivers his points well, he's well spoken... I guess that's easy when you can't reasonably expect to be held to account for anything you say.

I don't get why Duceppe is even there.  I can't imagine there are many Anglo Quebeckers that would ever vote for the Bloc.  If he was there, why not Elizabeth May?

I'm wondering what it'll do to polls, probably nothing significant.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com is the latest projection:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

CANADIAN POLITICS AND ELECTORAL PROJECTIONS

April 13, 2011 Projection - Conservative Minority Government

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13, 2011

Seven-point gap in Ontario

I was waiting on a new poll from EKOS to be reported on, as well as hoping to get my hands on the details of the newest (and oddest) COMPAS poll, but in the end I only have today's Nanos poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail to add to the projection. Accordingly, there is little change to report.

But I suspect this will not be the case for much longer. While last night's debate was interesting, I'm not sure it will move the numbers in any significant way. However, it can take time for this sort of thing to register, and often the effect of the debate is only known well after the leaders have finished arguing.

In terms of poll results, we shouldn't begin to see any of the effects until tomorrow at the earliest, and by the weekend we might still only be seeing a piece of the puzzle. The French debate tonight will, of course, have a large influence on the polls in Quebec but if anything especially remarkable happens it could resonate in English Canada as well.

My initial impression, however, is that all of the leaders generally shored up their own support but did little to capture votes from the other parties.  

There are no changes in the seat projection today. The Conservatives are still at 152, the Liberals are at 73, the Bloc Québécois is at 50, and the New Democrats are at 33. The Tories are back up to 39% while the Liberals and NDP are unchanged at 28.1% and 16.7%, respectively.

There has been little change at the regional level as well. Today's Nanos poll replaced yesterday's in the model, so there were only tiny variations.

The most important are those that took place in Ontario and Quebec. The Conservatives are unchanged at 42% in Ontario, but the Liberals are now at 35%. It is a gain of only 0.1 points, but it nevertheless narrows the gap between them and the Tories. The seats I highlighted yesterday as liable to fall back into the Liberal fold are all the more likely to go Grit now.

In Quebec, the Liberals are down and the Bloc is up - the first time the Bloc has seen their numbers improve in the projection in a few days.

Tonight's debate is very important for Gilles Duceppe, as he has to galvanize what has been, so far, a relatively uninspired campaign. Expect him to go hard at all three of the federalist leaders, as he is being pressed by all of them: the Conservatives in Quebec City, the Liberals around Montreal, and the New Democrats everywhere.

The Bloc isn't likely to lose any seats at the hands of the NDP (except maybe Gatineau), but the real threat to the Bloc that the NDP poses is as a spoiler. Many ridings in Quebec were close BQ/Liberal or BQ/Conservative races, and if the NDP siphons off enough support from the Bloc it could benefit the two other parties.

Undoubtedly, the NDP is also taking some votes from the Liberals and perhaps even the Conservatives. But the Bloc and NDP are both social democratic parties, and many polls show francophones and Bloc supporters have a generally high regard for the NDP and their leader.

As Quebecers already have a pretty clear picture of how the Conservatives and Liberals see their province, expect Duceppe to go after Jack Layton on issues that revolve around Quebec. We saw that a little last night when he talked about Bill 101. The NDP is more of a centralizing party than their two federalist counterparts, and that is a particularly problematic position for many former Bloc supporters now considering to vote for the NDP.

It will be up to Layton to ward off these attacks. I think he might be able to do it, as unlike the other two anglophone leaders Layton speaks decent working-class French (he did grow up in Montreal, after all). The more educated French of Michael Ignatieff and the heavily accented (and at times difficult to understand) French of Stephen Harper will not likely resonate with francophones once they are pressed by Duceppe and knocked off message.  

In any event, the French debate will be an interesting one. It's unfortunate we only get one in each language.

My apologies for the late update today, my alarm clock is to blame.

So no change and no impact, yet, from the debate.

Here is another graphic showing the aggregated polling trends:

Source: http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Ditto!

That, and when Iggy berated Jack for pointing out he is the leader most absent from Parliament: "I have no lessons to receive from you on democracy". Pretty arrogant if you ask me.

 

[Dissident]

Globe and Mail is showing PM Harper at 40% for impressing people the most in the debage, Iggy at 34%, Layton 22%.

NP on who do you think won the debate:
Stephen Harper 68.83% (8,673 votes)

Michael Ignatieff 15.04% (1,895 votes)

Jack Layton 8.55% (1,077 votes)

Gilles Duceppe 1.63% (205 votes)

None of them won 5.95% (750 votes)

 

[George Wallace]

Wrong side of the island George
The Champlain bridge connects toward the eastern townships.

The Champlain connect to the 30.  If another was built to the West that would take a lot of traffic off the Champlain that now uses the 30.  As for another bridge between the Champlain, the La Salle and the Tunnel, where would it go without ripping whole parts of the city apart?

 

[dapaterson]

I don't get why Duceppe is even there.  I can't imagine there are many Anglo Quebeckers that would ever vote for the Bloc. 

I grew up in NDG, as safe a Liberal riding as there is.  Provincially, it went for the Equality Party for an election or two, but other than that, every Federal and Provincial election it's a safe Liberal seat, though Nick Auf Der Maur made a go of it in '84.

Given the poor record of the Federal Liberals in defending Englsh minority langauge rights, I did vote for the Bloc in one election as a protest (an idea that was solidified on actually meeting the candidates who were a sorry, unimpressive lot); I'm certain that there were many head-scratches when that ballot was counted...

If [Duceppe] was there, why not Elizabeth May?

Because he heads a party with seats in the House of Commons, she does not.  If we open the debates to all parties, then we'll have the Marxist-Leninists, the Christian Heritage Party and all the others demanding equal time.

 

[57Chevy]

The Champlain connect to the 30.  If another was built to the West that would take a lot of traffic off the Champlain that now uses the 30.  As for another bridge between the Champlain, the La Salle and the Tunnel, where would it go without ripping whole parts of the city apart?

I'm attaching a map. The 30 is farther inland that junctions with the 10 ( toward the USA or the Lafontaine tunnel )

in the map....starting from the bottom where it says Lasalle, that is the Mercier bridge heading almost due south.
going downstream, where it says Brossard...that is the Champlain bridge which is highway 10 toward St-Jean-sur-Richelieu and farther east...Sherbrooke.
The next one just above that is the Jacques Cartier bridge which gives access to "La Ronde"
And then farther up where it says Boucherville....that's the Lafontaine tunnel. ( Trans-Canada )

They are promising replacing the old bridge with a sturdy new one at a cost of several billion dollars.

That may be just promises, promises, promises. ;D
however;
If Canada's most-travelled bridge were to break or be condemned as unsafe, it would be disastrous for the metropolitan economy. The pessimistic engineering reports coincide fortuitously with the federal election campaign, so you'd expect Montreal's mayor to be using what leverage he has to press for a new bridge.
---
The most energetic support for replacing the Champlain comes not from Montreal but from the South Shore. Several weeks ago, 12 South Shore mayors, including Longueuil's Caroline St-Hilaire and Brossard's Paul Leduc, asked the federal transport ministry for a precise schedule for building a new bridge.

South Shore commuters plainly need the bridge for coming into the city, but Montreal's need for the link is just as urgent. Imagine the straits Montrealers would be in if, among other things, trucks couldn't use it to get into and out of the city.
---
article:
Why aren't local politicians making Champlain Bridge a federal election issue?
By HENRY AUBIN, The GazetteApril 12, 2011
Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/aren+local+politicians+making+Champlain+Bridge+federal+election+issue/4598832/story.html#ixzz1JQSRP4Dk

 

[Journeyman]

If we open the debates to all parties, then we'll have the Marxist-Leninists, the Christian Heritage Party and all the others demanding equal time.

Like the Rhino Party!!  :nod:

 

[Kirkhill]

Looking at ERC's 308 numbers it looks to me like there are 4 separate constituencies represented there:

Tories at 39-40% and firm
Liberals and Greens at 35-36% and firm (when the Greens go down the Libs go up and vicky versey)
NDP and undecided at 34% and firm (when undecided go down Jack goes up - but undecided never shows up for the party anyway).
Bloc at 9% and inconsequential

The question will be decided by who supplies the best transportation system for getting voters to the polls.