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Election 2011

When I tried the "all middle o' the pack" responses, I noticed one of the DS solutions indicated that the NDP would spend about the same amount of money on the military as is spent now (compared to "somewhat less" for the Liberals and Greens, "much less" for the Bloc and "somewhat more" for the CPC) - see attached.
 
It's a very simplistic tool and at least has some usefulness for getting unengaged people looking at what in VERY general terms the parties are saying on some issues.

The questions however are obviously far too simplistic and isolated from every other related issue to allow you to use it as anything other than a starting point for discussion. 

For example, I'm personally in favour of totally eliminating corporate taxes to encourage investment and economic growth which pegs me quite clearly as a Conservative in the survey...but I'm only in favour of that if we were also to have corporations pay the REAL costs of the inputs (including energy, etc) that go into producing their products/services as well as the REAL costs of getting rid of the products they produce once they have reached the end of their lifespan (including waste product disposal, recyling, etc).  Where the heck does THAT put me in this survey?

Take the survey for what it is.  If it helps to develop interest in the party platforms and encourages people to actually become engaged in the election then it's a good thing...warts and all.
 
GAP said:
The tool is meant to generate discussion and give all Canadians a say, [Van der Linden] said, but not to provide voting advice.
Then why does the link to it lead with, "Voter Technique #1 - Coin Toss"?

A coin toss doesn't generate discussion, it's to make a decision. The U of T "researcher" would have known that if they had real football in Europe where a coin-toss decides opening offence or defence.


p.s. - I notice that CBC isn't carrying this story. It obviously isn't 'news' to them that they're the Liberal Party News outlet.
 
I tried that "voting tool" and I was more conservative than the conservatives.  Not entirely accurate.
 
Anyone else hear tell of Elizabeth May not being a participant in the televised debate?
 
Sapplicant said:
Anyone else hear tell of Elizabeth May not being a participant in the televised debate?

She shouldn't have been there in the first place....if only to have some decent (pun intended) discourse....
 
Here are today's (little changed) projections from ThreeHundredEight.com:

11-03-30.PNG

Source: http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

Changes.PNG

Source: http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

And here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com, is the explanation:

Positive signs for the Liberals in new projection

Baby steps, but the Liberals have their first set of good news this morning. The party has made small but encouraging gains in most parts of the country.

The newest Nanos/CTV/Globe poll, while not spectacular for the Liberals, does put them in a better position than some of the other polls we have seen lately. This new poll has been added to the projection, as have the older regional results from the Harris-Decima poll released earlier this week. In anticipation of my full poll summary later today, I invite you to look at the findings of the polls at the links provided above.

The Conservatives remain firmly in control. They are unchanged from yesterday's projection of 38.6% support and 151 seats. The Liberals have picked up one seat from the New Democrats in the projection, as well as 0.2 points. They now stand at 26.9% and 73 seats.

The NDP, with a gain of 0.2 points, are almost at the 17% mark. They now stand at 16.9% in what has been a few days of gains, but are down one seat to 33.

The Bloc Québécois is down 0.2 points nationally to 9.6% and steady at 51 seats, while the Greens are down 0.3 points to 6.7%.

When we look at the projection breakdown regionally, we can see that today's projection is a much better one for the Liberals. They are up 0.4 points in British Columbia and Alberta, and have closed the gap by 1.3 points in Atlantic Canada. The gain in Quebec is also very important.

For the Conservatives, they did not have much change. They were down a little out west but did make a gain in Ontario. At 41.9%, they are certainly in a strong position in the most important of electoral battlegrounds.

For the New Democrats, they had the tiniest of growth but growth nevertheless in five of the six regions. Most promising is the gain in Ontario, where they stand at 16.7%. They also continue to grow relentlessly in Quebec, and are now at 14.8%.

The only seat to change hands in the projection is that of Vancouver - Kingsway. The downtown Vancouver riding is an NDP seat represented by Don Davies. The seat is one of those that has gone back and forth in the projection, and now Liberal candidate Wendy Yuan is projected to have the lead once again.

 
Journeyman said:
p.s. - I notice that CBC isn't carrying this story .....
I'm sure they will, given the commitment to, according to the CBC's Journalism Policies:
On issues of controversy, we ensure that divergent views are reflected respectfully, taking into account their relevance to the debate and how widely held theses views are.
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:rofl:  I slay me....
 
The fact of the matter is that most of the public seems to want more discussion about the F-35 procurement program, and there's been an alarming lack of information about it, which is especially disturbing when numerous countries are facing controversy about the F-35.  In the USA the F-35 is already a political disaster because of massive cost overruns.  It's been called a white elephant in several circles, and the Pentagon, apparently, is trying to get Lockheed Martin to absorb some of the cost overruns rather than passing them on to end users.  I'm not sure how well that'll work.

In Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Office has already basically called the $16 billion cost estimate a joke, putting their estimate at almost double that ($29.3bn).  Further, and most importantly, there's been absolutely no effort to explain to the public why we need this particular aircraft.  I understand the efficiency of skipping a competitive process if there's only one aircraft that meets the requirement, but some effort needs to be undertaken to educate the public why that's the case, or the controversy is not going to go away.  Why, for example, aren't we looking at (currently in production) Super Hornets?  Yeah, not at Gucci as the JSF, but readily available with known costs and capability.  I'm not an Air Force type so I don't know what the argument for the JSF/against the Super Hornet (or any other aircraft for that matter) is, and neither do voters.

Oh yeah, and remember that whole "contempt of parliament" thing that brought down the government? (why aren't Liberals capitalizing more on that, by the way?)  That was primarily about the F-35 and the government's unwillingness to give the opposition more information about the program.

Haletown said:
Iggy confirmed this morning he plans to take the money allocated currently to DND to procure the F-35 and  use it to pay for his student grant program.

Source?  Most of his statements indicate that they know a CF-18 replacement's needed, and quickly, they're just not sold on the JSF.  I cannot find any reference whatsoever to support your claim, but by all means, prove me wrong.

Haletown said:
So the policy of the Liberal Party of Canada is to to defund the military to the tune of $30 billion.  This means that Canada, already one of the lowest spenders on Defense - 1.3% of our GDP, will drop even lower.

Nice hyperbole.  The policy is to demand the public's money be used in an efficient manner.  They're going to have to replace the Hornets with something - and Ignatieff has said that repeatedly, but for the reasons I've outlined, they seem to feel they need to sell it better to the public.  Frankly, spending $30bn on education or healthcare rather than really fancy fighter jets is going to appeal to a lot of voters.  Further, since that $30bn (and hey, at least you're using the right numbers, not the cooked up $16bn) is a capital expenditure, I don't think it figures into that metric anyhow.

Haletown said:
The Liberals  have played this game before and it resulted in a very dark decade for the CF. No doubt this would be one of many procurement cuts needed to fund Liberal promises of free stuff for Canadians.

It did result in a dark decade, but I think the public mostly understands that know, and I hope that the Liberals do too.  Someone like Ignatieff probably does more than most, I'd expect.  There's a need to balance the guns/butter tradeoff somehow, and it's only reasonable to expect that the public have as much input as possible into that.
 
Redeye said:
  Further, since that $30bn (and hey, at least you're using the right numbers, not the cooked up $16bn) is a capital expenditure, I don't think it figures into that metric anyhow.

Have we not established in the CF35 thread that the $16b vs $30b were essentially the same, but that the $30b accounted for was over a longer period of time? I remember an analysis of the $30b accounted being broken down somewhere here.

Getting caught up in the headlines I see.
 
Redeye said:
... I think the public mostly understands that know, and I hope that the Liberals do too.  Someone like Ignatieff probably does more than most, I'd expect.  There's a need to balance the guns/butter tradeoff somehow, and it's only reasonable to expect that the public have as much input as possible into that.


What ALL the Liberals understand is "we gotta get our snouts back in the trough" and "we can promise anything to win, no one cares after we're elected."

images
 
Redeye said:
It did result in a dark decade, but I think the public mostly understands that know, and I hope that the Liberals do too.  Someone like Ignatieff probably does more than most, I'd expect.  There's a need to balance the guns/butter tradeoff somehow, and it's only reasonable to expect that the public have as much input as possible into that.

Redeye, you seem to have a very short memory wrt Liberal Party SOP on these Defence procurement issues. Take off those rose coloured glasses and maybe you will see more clearly.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
What ALL the Liberals understand is "we gotta get our snouts back in the trough" and "we can promise anything to win, no one cares after we're elected."

images

So true and if we need any proof of that just look at the 1993 election promises and how many of them were fulfilled.

KJK
 
One interesting thing that I haven't seen so far is Omar Khadr's name and situation being used to hammer the CPC. In fact I haven't heard anything about him at all lately.

KJK
 
KJK said:
So true and if we need any proof of that just look at the 1993 election promises and how many of them were fulfilled.

KJK

I'm too busy in awe of all that transparency and accountability we've gotten from the CPC to look back that far.  Oh, weren't they going to refuse to appoint Senators and work towards the "Triple-E Senate"?  Right.

Well, at least they cut the GST.  A lot of good that did us.  ::)

I hate when it's election season and I feel the obligation to vote as my civic duty, but I can't find a single party worth voting for.
 
Redeye said:
I'm too busy in awe of all that transparency and accountability we've gotten from the CPC to look back that far.  Oh, weren't they going to refuse to appoint Senators and work towards the "Triple-E Senate"?  Right.

Well, at least they cut the GST.  A lot of good that did us.  ::)

I hate when it's election season and I feel the obligation to vote as my civic duty, but I can't find a single party worth voting for.

It's pretty tough to work toward a Triple E senate when 1 opposition party won't hear of any changes and the other wants it abolished.

I believe the CPC did ask the provinces to elect their Senators but most of them flipped the Feds the bird.

The GST cut I am a fan of even though it isn't optimal from an economists point of view. Anything that restricts the government's ability to increase in size is good IMHO. I know you will bring up the debt and deficit but I believe that it should be cuts to programs to reduce the debt not tax increases. I personally would love to see a law stating that spending can't be increased more than a combination of population growth times inflation but that shall we say is extremely unlikely. ;D

KJK
 
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