Election 2009?

[Edward Campbell]

More on Prince Michael’s dilemma, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-split-on-triggering-election/article1270965/

Liberals split on pulling election trigger

Ignatieff vows to decide on principle instead of polls, caucus chair admits lack of unanimity and MPs back away from EI reform as three-day meeting kicks off

Jane Taber, Senior Political Writer

Sudbury — The Globe and Mail
Monday, Aug. 31, 2009

Principle and not national opinion polls will decide whether the Liberals try to defeat the Conservative government and plunge the country into an election, possibly as early as the fall, Michael Ignatieff says.

The Liberal Leader will make his choice with the help of his MPs, noting that it will be a “serene decision and a clear one.”

Speaking to reporters on the first day of a three-day caucus meeting, Mr. Ignatieff said his party has “put the country first” and “kept the government on life support for 10 months.”

But he argued the government's performance has not improved over the summer, citing difficulties distributing infrastructure stimulus money, issues around health care and the isotope crisis.

He also called the Conservative's contribution to the special working group on employment insurance reform “a bit of a charade.”

Liberal MPs, however, appear split on whether they should topple Stephen Harper's minority government this fall. Anthony Rota, the national caucus chair, told reporters Monday afternoon that “there is no real unanimous mood in there.”

“It's more up for discussion to see what the circumstances are and what Canadians want from this government,” Mr. Rota said, standing the lobby of the Sudbury hotel where the meetings are taking place.

He noted that throughout the caucus retreat, MPs will be telling Mr. Ignatieff – who arrived in the Northern Ontario city Monday morning in a turboprop Bearskin Airlines plane that he had some trouble squishing his lanky frame into – what they heard from their constituents over the summer.

Most MPs are being vague as to their personal preference on going to the polls. As well, they appear to be backing away from reforming EI, an issue that Mr. Ignatieff had practically staked his leadership on.

In June, the Liberal Leader agreed not to defeat the Harper government and provoke an election in return for a special bipartisan working group on EI reform. The group has met several times over the summer with little success.

EI reform is not an issue universally popular with caucus members. Some MPs argue that their constituents would rather hear about job creation than insurance for lost jobs.

“EI is an important issue but it's not the only issue,” House Leader Ralph Goodale said, repeating the refrain for emphasis. “EI is one of the issues. It is not the only issue.”

Last week, Senator David Smith, the co-chair of the national campaign, publicly suggested that EI reform would not be the Liberal's election issue. One MP said that caucus members were pleased with his comments.

Earlier Monday, Vancouver MP Ujjal Dosanjh never even mentioned EI reform as an issue that could provoke a Harper Conservative defeat.

“We'll pass judgment on his performance or lack thereof,” Mr. Dosanjh said. “There are lots of issues: whether or not he cares enough for Canadians' health vis-à-vis isotopes; whether or not he cares enough about Canadians when they are caught abroad in difficult situations; whether or not there are several classes of Canadian citizenship.”

He said the purpose of the Liberal caucus meeting and “the next few weeks is to hold Mr. Harper to account once we get back into the House.”

Mr. Dosanjh and others have argued that Mr. Harper has had a “free ride” over the summer and that the resumption of Parliament – the House returns Sept. 14 – will give Liberals a chance to hold him to account.

I think am about 99% certain that most Liberal Mps heard their constituents’ message, loud and clear. The message was: “Election? What @#$% election!?! We don’t need no @#$% election!”

Iggy = too little, too late. Poor Prince Michael!

 

[Edward Campbell]

Sorry to be hogging this thread, but this, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site, is an interesting piece by Norman Spector re: why the Liberals are, suddenly, such reluctant warriors:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/a-wise-liberal/article1270476/

A wise Liberal

Monday, August 31, 2009

Norman Spector

With the Liberal caucus meeting in Sudbury, election speculation will inevitably be in the air. What else is new?

What’s new — relative to speculation back in the spring, at least — were the words last week of Senator David Smith, debunking the notion that the Liberals would provoke an election on EI. What’s also new is why the good Senator made his statements: The Liberals received disquieting poll results in Québec last week. And it seems they also heard about some negative developments in Ontario from their provincial cousins, as Susan Delacourt reports:

Last week, in a closed-door presentation in Toronto, dozens of Ontario Liberal MPPs were treated to a presentation by Pollara president Don Guy, in which they reportedly learned it's been a good summer for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative "brand."… From this, some provincial Liberals inferred it hasn't been that great a summer for federal leader Michael Ignatieff – and that this fall may not be the best time to have an election.

Aside from demonstrating a fine sense of political realism, Senator Smith showed the wisdom that comes with experience. Today, Mr. Guy will present the bad polling news to the federal Liberal caucus. However, notwithstanding the Senator’s cold-shower statement, the Official Opposition retains the option of bringing down the government any time it chooses. Yet, in the short term, the statement takes the pressure off Michael Ignatieff to pull the plug in September or risk being “Dionized” by his political opponents and the media alike.

The Liberals are fortunate to have old warriors like David Smith, co-chair of their next election campaign, in the Senate. And it’s entirely understandable that Stephen Harper would appoint Conservative partisans to join him there. Not to achieve senate reform, as he and some of his supporters pretend: senators have no constitutional veto over reform of the Upper House. Nor can the partisan appointments be justified on the basis that the Liberals have done the same thing in the past, though who can deny it?

However, it is fair to say that a Conservative majority, when achieved, will ensure that the government’s legislation cannot be blocked in the undemocratic Red Chamber — which cannot be abolished and would be virtually impossible to reform. And the appointment of Conservative hacks to compete with Senator Smith will increase the odds that the Conservatives will eventually gain that majority in the Red Chamber. The unattractive alternative to Stephen Harper’s course of action — Canada becoming a one-party Liberal state — was the direction in which we were headed before Mr. Harper re-entered politics and united the centre-right.

The Hon. David P. Smith, P.C., Q.C., B.A., LL.B.
Biography from Fraser Milner Casgrain

 

[Edward Campbell]

We can expect to hear this message, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail website, every time there is one, tiny bit of economic good news:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/baird-ups-anti-election-rhetoric/article1270791/

Baird ups anti-election rhetoric
Fall vote would impede stimulus spending, Transport Minister says

Ottawa — The Canadian Press

Monday, Aug. 31, 2009

The federal Tories stepped up their anti-election campaign today, warning that a fall vote could threaten the fragile economic recovery.

This time it was Transport Minister John Baird trumpeting the mantra that an election would put stimulus spending on hold.

Mr. Baird, who is point man for the government's infrastructure programs, said it would be irresponsible of the Liberals to topple the government.

He noted that the economy grew slightly in June for the first time in almost a year and said it's important to stay on course with stimulus plans.

Mr. Baird said senior Liberals have suggested recently that a fall election isn't in the cards, and said he's pleased by that.

In fact, the Liberals have merely said they won't try to bring down the government at their first opportunity.

Last fall, Prime Minister Stephen Harper ignored his own fixed-election date law and called a vote just before the country plunged into recession.

Caveat lector: I want an election because I want the stimulus spending to stop because I think it is inflationary and I think inflation is a worse enemy than unemployment.

Apologies, again, for monopolizing this topic.


Edit: stupid @#$% typo

 

[Edward Campbell]

Yet more, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, on Prince Michael and his minions in Sudbury:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ignatieff-shows-his-hawkish-side/article1270965/

Ignatieff shows his hawkish side
Hints of tension emerge as caucus chair says ‘there is no real unanimous mood in there' for an election

Jane Taber, Senior Political Writer

Sudbury, Ont.
Tuesday, Sep. 01, 2009 12:09AM EDT

Michael Ignatieff's hawkish side was on display Monday as he criticized the Harper minority government's summer performance, and vowed that any decision to take it down in the fall will be on a question of “principle,” and not of “polls.”

The Liberal Leader's gunslinger act at an afternoon press conference on the first day of a three-day caucus meeting in this Northern Ontario city contrasted with his more dovish caucus members, many of whom are worried about going to the polls so soon after last year's election.

What appears to be developing is a tension between Mr. Ignatieff and his inner circle – who would love to see him as prime minister for the 2010 Olympics – and his MPs, some of whom want to wait.

Anthony Rota, the national caucus chair, told reporters Monday afternoon that, “there is no real unanimous mood in there,” for an election.

“It's more up for discussion to see what the circumstances are and what Canadians want from this government,” said Mr. Rota, the only Liberal MP from Northern Ontario.

Mr. Ignatieff, however, seemed to indicate that there was little to discuss.

“We've kept this government on life support for 10 months. It's important to remember that,” he said at his news conference. “We have put the country first. We voted for a budget about which we had serious reservations because we thought some stimulus is better than no stimulus; we thought some help to the unemployed is better than no help to the unemployed.”

However, he said, nothing has improved over the summer on these keys issues. In fact, he dismissed the meetings of the special Conservative-Liberal working group on changes to employment insurance as having “turned into a bit of a charade.”

“And so this is the kind of matter that we are going to have to take up in the caucus,” he said. “I want to listen to what they have to say, and then we will make our decision. The decision will be very clear.”

Mr. Ignatieff said the decision would be “serene.” The full caucus meets Tuesday.

“This is a question of principle, not a question of polls,” he said in his news conference.

The Liberals and Conservatives have been in a dead-heat in the national opinion polls throughout the summer, frustrating some Liberals who had hoped their standings would be higher after Mr. Ignatieff took over. Instead, they have about the same support former leader Stéphane Dion had last summer.

Mr. Ignatieff's statements were made amid reports that his team is planning a major advertising campaign , beginning after Labour Day.

One insider said Monday that the ads in English Canada will show Mr. Ignatieff in statesmanlike poses as he tries to make himself better known to Canadians.

However, the French-language ads, said the insider, will be much harder hitting on the government and Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

It appears Mr. Ignatieff is beginning to develop a narrative for an election campaign. He and his inner circle are pushing hard on the government's handling of foreign acquisition of Canadian companies, such as Nortel and Vale Inco, which is based in Sudbury.

Vale Inco workers are on strike, and Mr. Ignatieff and his team met with United Steelworkers leaders Monday.

Asked about the meeting, Mr. Ignatieff launched into an attack on the Harper government.

“We welcome inward investment,” he said. “But we don't want to have inward investment at the price of Canadian workers, jobs and at the price of Canadian technologies.

“We feel very strongly that the government of Canada, the Conservative government, has failed to stand up for Canadian technology and Canadian jobs, and that's the issue.”

It appears that the Liberals are backing away from making their demands to change employment insurance the key to propping up the government.

Last June, the leader agreed not to defeat the Harper government and provoke an election, in return for a bipartisan Liberal/Conservative special working group on changes to EI and an opposition day, in which a no-confidence motion could be triggered, at the end of September.

Last week, Senator David Smith, one of the campaign co-chairs, appeared to put the brakes on a late September no-confidence motion over EI, suggesting that there is fatigue among Canadians with regards to elections.

On Monday, House Leader Ralph Goodale said that “EI is an important issue, but it's not the only issue.”

One Liberal MP said that many in the caucus were pleased with Mr. Smith's statements, especially about fighting so many elections so close together. Mr. Harper called an election last fall, the third since 2004.

Oh, the Canadian media must be just about peeing their pants with glee! It’s been years, decades, in fact, since they could talk about a “gunslinger!”

There is, as I have mentioned before, here in Army.ca, a problem with Iggy’s new narrative – on the Conservatives’ handling of foreign acquisitions: it may backfire, by setting off inter-regional squabbles.

It’s still hard, very hard, to find a good useful barely acceptable reason for yet another election.

38th General Election: 28 Jun 04 – Liberal minority
39th General Election: 23 Jan 06 – Conservative minority
40th General Election: 14 Oct 08 – Conservative minority
41st General Election: __ Nov 09? – another Conservative minority?

Can anyone recall any issues in 04, 06 or 08?

Despite my own, personal, views on the matter, I think Canadians may punish the Liberals if they foist yet another, quite unnecessary general election on us.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I know I'm still monopolizing this topic, but see here for a platform plank the Liberals could and should (but likely will not) use.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Macleans political columnist Kady O’Malley was on Kathleen Petty’s Ottawa Morning radio programme saying that the Liberals, rightly or wrongly, believe that they control the parliamentary/election agenda – especially as regards to timings.

If they are saying that out loud then they have blundered, I think. If the pollsters and I are right and Canadians really do not want an election – and will not really want one after they start paying attention, again, either – then saying that the election decision is entirely within ones’ power is not a smart move. Baird et al will hammer even harder on the theme that this unnecessary election is all the fault of the Liberals.

I’m sure the “we control the agenda; we’re the big, tough guys in parliament” stuff goes over well with the caucus and the true believers but, overall, it probably helps the Conservatives.

 

[dapaterson]

Prince Mikhael has announced that he will topple the tsar.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090831/tories_election_090901/20090901?hub=TopStories

 

[COBRA-6]

Leeeeeeeeeeeroy Jeeeeeeenkins!

 

[Edward Campbell]

Prince Mikhael has announced that he will topple the tsar.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090831/tories_election_090901/20090901?hub=TopStories

Oh, goody!    There is a Santa! But he has a blue suit ...

 

[Old Sweat]

And there's always a chance Iggy will pull his punches and find a way to huff and puff, but not blow the house down.

If not, the worst thing the Liberals could do would be to justify their action as an attempt to return to power for no other reason than the Canadian people miss them, or we secretly want them back, or his cronies are entitled to their entitlements.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And there's always a chance Iggy will pull his punches and find a way to huff and puff, but not blow the house down.

If not, the worst thing the Liberals could do would be to justify their action as an attempt to return to power for no other reason than the Canadian people miss them, or we secretly want them back, or his cronies are entitled to their entitlements.

Quite right, I think. So far, at least in what I've heard/read, he has been carefully vague about when he might pull the plug. All reports say that his caucus is split and the doves want to wait until Spring 2010, at the earliest.

But we might have a nice fall "battle" of TV attack ads.

 

[Edward Campbell]

More good political sense from Norman Spector, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/its-not-the-polls/article1271550/

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

It's not the polls?

Norman Spector

In labour-management negotiations, when one side or the other says it’s not about money it’s about principle, it’s time to hold on to your wallets. Which is pretty much how we should understand Michael Ignatieff saying a fall election “is a question of principle, not a question of polls."

With support for the Liberals having softened over the summer in Québec and Ontario, Senator David Smith has been advising caution — to the delight of the Conservatives and to the chagrin of Mr. Ignatieff’s advisers. Privately, they’re furious with the Senator as they are reported to be hawkish on an early election.

Time has not been playing to Mr. Ignatieff’s advantage in securing the job for which he returned to Canada: Stephen Harper, who was written off by many after the coalition crisis, has re-gained his footing and has been merrily dispensing government largesse from sea-to-sea-to-sea. The economy has been improving, and will continue to improve, perhaps delaying again the return to power of Canada’s natural governing party.

While Mr. Ignatieff has been out of the news, Mr. Harper has been strutting the international stage, hobnobbing with the likes of Barack Obama, who is still very popular north of the border. It pains Liberal insiders to see the Prime Minister appointing senators, ambassadors and judges — not to speak of dispensing lesser forms of pork. And it pains those insiders who earn their living as lobbyists to see their Conservative counterparts getting the fattest corporate retainers.

The polls may be soft, but Mr. Ignatieff and his advisers hope to do something about that with a rumoured $2-million ad campaign. Conveniently, Mr. Ignatieff will be in China, far from any criticism for adopting a tactic he’s criticized the Conservatives for favouring. Speaking of the Conservatives, they’re already appealing for funds to counter the rumoured Liberal campaign, so Canadians may end up looking at an air-war in the coming days.

Think of it this way: Michael Ignatieff is now like an airplane pilot taxiing down the runway. If he can turn the polls north, he’ll take off. If the polls don’t improve, he’ll find some way to back down, as he did in the spring.

EI and the unemployed, or whatever the principle, be damned.

I maintain: even with a $2 million attack ad campaign, too little, too late! The Tories will have an $n million attack ad campaign (where n >> 2) and, as Spector says, everything is going Harper’s way. Hell’s bells, even an election call works in Harper’s favour. Sen. Smith and the Liberal doves are smart; Iggy and Dosanjh and the hawks - not so much.

 

[Edward Campbell]

According to the local news here (Ottawa) my local MP, Paul Dewar is already suggesting the issues which might cause the NDP to support the government. A couple are almost certainly non-starters for the Tories but one, pension protection, has been discussed by all parties, off and on, and the time may be ripe for some reform on that issue. It would be expensive - an excuse to cut some stimulus projects? - but very popular.

Also, if the Liberals are, indeed, up in the polls in QC then the Bloc may be far less interested in an election than it was in the spring.

Iggy is, probably, now committed to oppose, oppose, oppose, non stop. But Harper can be defeated only when all three opposition parties unite, and bring most of their members to the House to vote. Neither is a sure thing.

 

[owa]

I do support the Liberals most of the time, but I'm getting sick of this election stuff.  I'd support a different party if an election were called.  Unless I saw something from the Liberals that made sense and wasn't just them kicking the tires again to see what happens, and I don't much care for that waste of resources.

Plus I'd rather the Conservatives in power while I'm working on the enlistment process

 

[dapaterson]

Iggy is, probably, now committed to oppose, oppose, oppose, non stop. But Harper can be defeated only when all three opposition parties unite, and bring most of their members to the House to vote. Neither is a sure thing.

Aha - but the Tories can count as well.  Arrange for a few convenient, plausible absences when the opposition parties plan a failed confidence motion and it could carry the day - "We were too busy governing" or some such claim.

Spin might be difficult - but there are plans within plans and plots within conspiracies when the whiff of a writ is in the air.

 

[GAP]

Plus I'd rather the Conservatives in power while I'm working on the enlistment process

Whatever brings you over to the dark side....

 

[owa]

Whatever brings you over to the dark side....

Haha, yeah, I have a couple buddies who are going to be happy to know that I've moved closer to the darkside.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Ottawa Citizen, is a good column by Don Martin:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Gunslinger+Ignatieff+aims+foot/1952876/story.html

Gunslinger Ignatieff aims for his foot

By Don Martin, Calgary Herald

September 2, 2009


Ready! Fire! Aim?

That's Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff gunning for an election that may end as a badly missed target.

In what must rank as the most nonsensical excuse at the worst possible time for the nation's fifth $300-million election in nine years, Ignatieff has backed the trio of opposition parties into a very tight corner with the government's takedown next month as their only obvious escape.

What summer epiphany fortified his resolve to aggressively terminate this 10-month-old Conservative minority government is a headscratcher. His poll standings have gone soft, his profile has sagged into invisibility and the economy has edged up -- all reasons for the Liberals to roll over and play dead instead of unleashing a fearsome growl of campaign chest-beating.

Somewhere, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is probably smiling. His argument for a majority mandate will never resonate louder than having the Liberals force a pointless election amid signs that an economic recovery is on the way.

Try as the Liberals might to articulate some high-falutin' ballot box question, any fall election will be a referendum on recession economic management, setting it up as a showdown between Conservative optimism at the budding recovery verses Liberal negativity that the worst is yet to come.

A delusional Ignatieff seems to think the economy won't drive the campaign as he wraps himself in a visionary flag.

Canada celebrates its 150th birthday in 2017 and he vows a Liberal crusade to transform the country into the most educated, greenest and most technologically advanced on Earth. As if the average economically apprehensive voter would care about that.

Failing that, how about campaigning for a law to protect Canadians in faraway trouble, legislation that would force their return home from foreign powers even if they stand accused of serious crime, he suggests? Good grief, no.

Well, if that won't have you craving a Liberal government, Canada should water down its global influence by demanding that China and India be included in all future world summits. Fair enough, but that's hardly election fodder and is precisely the argument that Harper used to explain his opposition to a Kyoto Accord that excluded both economic giants.

Surely, the Liberals can do better.

True, they have some high-calibre ammunition to shoot holes in a Conservative party that's proven itself excessively partisan and grossly unprincipled.

Harper's wilful blindness to the oncoming recession, his deep dive into deficits, his Senate stacking, the isotope crisis and his government's secretive and manipulative behaviour are obviously ripe attack ad targets.

But if the Liberal alternative is a vague promise of an idyllic future in a decade or two, well, that's not going to sell to a voter struggling to recover from the so-called "Conservative recession" (I guess this means they'll have to call it the "Conservative recovery" before long).

Soooo ... will there be an election?

Having declared Harper's time to be up, gunslinger Ignatieff has taken the Conservatives off probation and transferred them to the prisoner's box for capital punishment. It will be very difficult to retreat now without a serious blow to the credibility of his leadership.

Responsibility for propping up the Hill then falls to Jack and Gilles, that being Layton's NDP and Duceppe's Bloc Québécois, who have taken such unilateral anti-government positions that their only election avoidance tactic would be an outbreak of diplomatic diarrhea to make enough MPs disappear for the government to survive the upcoming non-confidence vote.

Pay no attention to Prime Minister Stephen Harper getting all knicker-knotted at the election threat, by the way. A year ago next week, Harper broke his own fixed election law to call an election the voters didn't want under weak pretenses. And with Canada lurching into a recession, his timing sucked too.

But to trigger the second vote in a year to debate a Liberal vision eight years down the road is simply unconscionable.

If Michael Ignatieff can't articulate a solid reason to force another election, he won't have a decent excuse to ask for Liberal votes. Under that scenario, the Conservatives win.

Don Martin is a columnist for the Calgary Herald.
E-mail: dmartin@canwest.com

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen​

I think Martin has it nearly right:

• Iggy has blundered into this position because he cannot go on “supporting” Harper without be made into a clone of Celine Stéphane Dion. That’s why he’s taking this position, it has little to do with polls and nothing to do with principles;

• Jack and Gilles (I wish I’d thought of that!) may well decide to prop up the Tories – almost certainly will if the Liberals are going up in the polls;

• Harper can, likely will win any fall 2009 election – but I’m not sure he can get a majority.

 

[dapaterson]

• Harper can, likely will win any fall 2009 election – but I’m not sure he can get a majority.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nu9dfdYCZhM

All my life's a circle;
Sunrise and sundown;
Moon rolls thru the nighttime;
Till the daybreak comes around.

All my life's a circle;
But I can't tell you why;
Season's spinning round again;
The years keep rollin' by.

It seems like I've been here before;
I can't remember when;
But I have this funny feeling;
That we'll all be together again.
No straight lines make up my life;
And all my roads have bends;
There's no clear-cut beginnings;
And so far no dead-ends.


-Harry Chapin, "Circle", 1972

 

[Edward Campbell]

I’m tossing a couple of ideas around in my own mind:

• For Jack Layton – Iggy is the real enemy. The Dippers have to recapture the left wing of the Liberal Party, as Ed Broadbent did in the 34th (1988) general election by capturing previously “solid” Liberal seats in, especially, BC and ON. A 2009 election should be highly desirable – the Liberals will be weak and the NDP can advertise itself as the only real national opposition to Harper’s forces of darkness®.

• For Gilles Duceppe – Iggy is the main enemy if, Big IF, he (the LPC) is making real gains in Québec. Duceppe needs/will be “happy” with 40+ seats but he fears an NDP breakthrough because a NDP success (which equals a Liberal failure) might reduce him to 4th party status.

• For Prince Michael – see my earlier post. The only objective is not to be Dionized.

• For Stephen Harper – the only goal is a majority. Another minority means that the knives will be out. A majority gives him the platform he needs to fundamentally change Canada. His changes may condemn the Conservatives to another “decade of darkness”® à la 1993-2003 or they may lead to a succession of Conservative governments, à la King/St Laurent (1935-57).

My interim thoughts:

• Iggy/Liberals must vote against the government, again and again and again;

• Layton/NDP should vote against the government, consistently;

• Duceppe/BQ may need to vote with the government IF the LPC is gaining in Québec but is losing ground to the Dippers in Canada, proper; and

• Harper/Conservatives should want an election IF the Liberals are not gaining outside of Québec. That may mean having a lot of absentees when a confidence vote comes along.