Egypt: News/updates

[Colin Parkinson]

The MB has a organization structured around the mosques and Egyptians are known piety. This gave them the resilience to survive the  pressure exerted by the regime. The moderates became disjointed and disorganized, leaving the fundamentalist a clear shot at power, *cough* Iran 1979 *cough*. The one thing is that once in power these fundies are quick to show their disdain for everything that does not fit their very narrow view of the world. In a way it would have been better to wait another year, by which time everyone would have been sick of them and their incompetence. 

 

[jollyjacktar]

What's happened in Egypt is that, given a fairly free choice "the people," or a plurality of them, anyway, chose the Muslim Brotherhood. The moderate army disapproves ... exit Morsi. It appears, to me, that the Egyptian army doesn't want to rule, directly. The question is: can they convince a plurality to elect someone who will govern as the army sees fit? More important can that person, following a fair enough election, hand over power, peacefully, to someone else who will have the army's approval?

It's not just the Egyptian army that thinks Morsi's et al are a gigantic collection of tools.  Millions of their fellow citizens can't stand the Bro's either.  According to all my wife's friends in Egypt and backed up by her last visit to see for herself, they've done SFA for the country and it's been not a free fall but rocket propelled ride to further, deeper, poverty amongst other things for most.  Including your 30% peasant class.

I'm thrilled to see the Islamists getting their teeth kicked and butts handed to them.

 

[CougarKing]

The beginnings of another civil war with Morsi's and the Brotherhood's supporters on one side and the moderates, the Egyptian military, religious minorities and other political opposition groups on other side?

National Post link

Army deploys commandos across Egypt, Morsi supporters promise bitter fight after ‘coup’

(...)
The army has insisted it is not carrying out a coup, but acting on the will of the people to clear the way for a new leadership.

In his speech, army chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said the chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court would step in as interim president until new elections are held. He would be sworn in judges of his court, el-Sissi said. A government of technocrats would be formed with “full powers” to run the country

(...)

Shortly before the 9:20 p.m. announcement, the army deployed troops, commandos and armoured vehicles in cities around the country. In Cairo, they stationed on bridges over the Nile River and at major intersections. They also surrounded rallies being held by Morsi’s supporters — an apparent move to contain them.

Travel bans were imposed on Morsi and top figures from his Muslim Brotherhood including its chief Mohammed Badie and his powerful deputy Khairat el-Shater.

(...)

The army’s move is the second time in Egypt’s 2 1/2 years of turmoil that it has forced out the country’s leader. It pushed out Mubarak and took power itself. This time, however, its removal of an elected figure could be more explosive.

Elected with 51.7% of the vote in last year’s presidential election, Morsi took office vowing to move beyond his roots in the Muslim Brotherhood.

But his presidency threw the country into deep polarization. Those who took to the streets this week say he lost his electoral legitimacy because he tried to give the Brotherhood and Islamist allies a monopoly on power, pushed through a constitution largely written by his allies and mismanaged the country’s multiple crises.

“Now we want a president who would really be the president of all Egyptians and will work for the country,” Said Shahin, a 19-year-old protester in Tahrir, said, falling to the ground to pray as soon as el-Sissi spoke.

Mahmoud Badr, spokesman for Tamarod, or Rebel — the youth movement behind the rallies — praised the crowds in the streets saying, they succeded in “putting your revolution back on track.”

(...)

 

[sean m]

Hello,

Can anyone speculate as to how Israel may be reacting to this change in Egyptian politics. Does anyone think that the Israelis may approve of this military takeover? Can anyone speculate as to the relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian security services?

Here is an article from the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/02/egypt-unrest-israel_n_3536454.html?utm_hp_ref=egypt

 

[Edward Campbell]

Hello,

Can anyone speculate as to how Israel may be reacting to this change in Egyptian politics. Does anyone think that the Israelis may approve of this military takeover? Can anyone speculate as to the relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian security services?

Here is an article from the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/02/egypt-unrest-israel_n_3536454.html?utm_hp_ref=egypt

Apparently the Huffington Post can speculate and does so, too, saying that "Israel Watches Protests Warily." That's the stuff in big letters ~ I didn't bother ready the fine print.

 

[cupper]

Hello,

Can anyone speculate as to how Israel may be reacting to this change in Egyptian politics. Does anyone think that the Israelis may approve of this military takeover? Can anyone speculate as to the relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian security services?

Here is an article from the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/02/egypt-unrest-israel_n_3536454.html?utm_hp_ref=egypt

Apparently the Muslim Brotherhood believes that Israel is responsible along with the US for the coup.

 

[old medic]

Now under house arrest:

Cairo (CNN) -- Egypt's military toppled the country's first democratically elected president Wednesday night and reportedly put him under house arrest while rounding up some of his top supporters even as the deposed Mohamed Morsy insisted that he remains the country's legitimate leader.

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across Egypt over the military's actions that were decried by Morsy's supporters as a "coup" and celebrated as a "correction" by his opponents. At least eight people were killed and more than 340 wounded in sporadic violence that at times pitted Morsy's supporters against the opposition and the military.......

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/03/world/meast/egypt-protests/index.html

 

[Edward Campbell]

And US domestic politics can never, ever "miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity," and so the knives are out for U.S. ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson, according to this article in Foreign Policy. Ms Patterson is a career foreign service officer but since she is part of the administration she is regarded as fair game.

What's the difference between the Girl Guides and official Washington?

The Girl Guides have adult leadership.

 

[GAP]

article is behind a pay wall ER

 

[Journeyman]

article is behind a pay wall ER

And?  You don't have a Foreign Policy subscription?  rly:

 

[Edward Campbell]

article is behind a pay wall ER

Here it is, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Foreign Policy (and it's a short blog post, rather than a proper essay):

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/03/knives_come_out_for_us_ambassador_to_egypt_anne_patterson

Knives Come Out for U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson

Posted By John Hudson

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

As the violent standoff over the future of Egypt continues, U.S. ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson has become a lightning rod for critics of U.S. policy in the country.

The tip of the spear for U.S.-Egypt diplomacy, Patterson's June 18 speech discouraging street protests has come to symbolize the administration's inability to recognize the potency of Egypt's liberal opposition. "Some say that street action will produce better results than elections," Patterson said. "To be honest, my government and I are deeply skeptical."

Now, with the Egyptian military's take over of the country, observers fear the outbreak of widespread violence between Morsy's Islamist supporters and moderate critics, and many wonder if the U.S. could've taken a harder line on the Brotherhood during its 10-month rule.

Patterson in particular resisted opportunities to criticize the Morsy government as it implemented increasingly authoritarian policies. In a memorable May interview with the Egyptian English-language news sit Ahram Online, she repeatedly dodged pointed questions about Morsy's leadership. "The fact is they ran in a legitimate election and won," she said. "Of course it is challenging to be dealing with any new government. However, at the state institutional level, we are for instance still liaising with the same military and civil service personnel, and thus have retained the same long-established relations."

Republicans from Texas Senator Ted Cruz to House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce have pounced on statements like these, increasingly seeing Patterson as the key implementer for a policy that at least offers tacit support to the Muslim Brotherhood.

"As opposition to Morsy coalesced around the Tamarod movement, the Obama administration missed the opportunity to support its efforts and further the vital interests of the United States without firing a shot," Cruz wrote in a Wednesday article for FP. "Instead, the sole priority seems to be to defuse the situation and preserve the status quo. Ambassador Patterson has assumed the leading role in implementing this policy, meeting with members of the opposition not to encourage them to pursue a true secular democracy in Egypt but to try to persuade them to tone things down."

The State Department, meanwhile, is fending off criticisms of Patterson, who is reportedly in line for a promotion as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs. "The ambassador has very much stated U.S. policies," spokesman Patrick Ventrell said at a Monday press briefing.

It didn't help Patterson's standing when she met with senior Brotherhood officials, the Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie and his deputy Khairat Al-Shater. For some liberal Egyptians, this was seens as nothing less than conspiring with the enemy. Now Egyptian protesters are carrying signs with the ambassador's face crossed out.

That's something "we find it abhorrent and reprehensible," Ventrell added. Between the Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition, "we don't take sides."

Of course, it's an incredibly difficult needle Patterson is forced to thread. Washington needs to maintain constructive relations with Egypt given U.S. interests in the region, no matter who is in charge in Egypt. And others in Egypt will quickly defend her, such as Mohamed El-Menshawy, who took to the pages of Ahram Online to support her last week.

"In general, an ambassador's job includes representing their country, presenting its view on critical issues in the host country, as well as participating in decision making back home by giving their opinion, sending reports and making suggestions," he wrote. "The US ambassador's predictions about the difficulties of democratic transition were correct, but she could never imagine that she herself would become a target for many in both Islamic and non-Islamic political forces."

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Hello,

Can anyone speculate as to how Israel may be reacting to this change in Egyptian politics. Does anyone think that the Israelis may approve of this military takeover? Can anyone speculate as to the relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian security services?

Here is an article from the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/02/egypt-unrest-israel_n_3536454.html?utm_hp_ref=egypt

I have no doubt the Israelis maintain high level contacts with the Egyptian military and I also suspect they will never mention that or what they know. 

 

[tomahawk6]

Stratfor article:

Stratfor article:

Analysis

A debate is underway in Egypt on whether the move to oust President Mohammed Morsi is tantamount to a military coup. Considering that the Egyptian army is forcibly removing a democratically elected president in the wake of nation-wide unrest, the military intervention is indeed a coup. However, it differs from other coups in that direct military rule will not be imposed.

There is considerable public support for Morsi's removal, so the provisional authority that will replace him likely will be a broad-based entity that includes representatives of the nation's main political stakeholders. Indeed, the interim government likely will differ greatly from the one run by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which governed the state after former President Hosni Mubarak was forced from office in 2011 and until Morsi came to power in June 2012.

Herein lies the problem of the Egyptian military, which has been the mainstay of the regime since the founding of the modern republic in 1952. For most of its history, especially since after the end of the 1967 war, Egypt's military has never directly governed the country; rather, it ruled from behind the scenes, except for the year when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces ruled. Until the fall of Mubarak, this was achieved by means of single-party rule where the now-disbanded National Democratic Party administered at the behest of the military. The destruction of the National Democratic Party was a major dilemma for the military, which no longer had a civilian partner. This was further complicated by the onset of a multi-party era.

As the single largest, most coherent political force in the country, Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood was able to benefit from the electoral process. With the election of Morsi as president last year, it appeared as though the military had found a replacement of sorts for the National Democratic Party -- the ideological differences notwithstanding. What the military needed was a government that could manage the political economy of the country such that the state of unrest could remain limited.

Morsi's government failed to do that. His focus on consolidating power for his group is what triggered the current massive public backlash. As a result, the army is once again without a civilian partner. There are no alternatives to the Muslim Brotherhood because the opposition is a large protest movement without any coherent core. However, it is notable that the impetus for these protests was the liberal and secular opposition, who for the first time demonstrated an ability to establish a united front. It is unclear whether the opposition will coalesce and whether Tamarod's political wing, June 30 Front, represents a political alternative to the Brotherhood's established social networks in the country. Mohammed ElBaradei's appointment as the negotiator for much of the opposition could be a first step toward a political entity besides the Brotherhood that could wield civilian power.

The unrest generated by the opposition elements united under Tamarod, and to a lesser extent even among some Islamists, has forced the military to get rid of the Morsi presidency. After all, the president refused to resign, and the opposition would not accept his proposals for a compromise. But this is not the outcome the military preferred. It hoped Morsi could maintain control of the country while securing the military's economic and political interests.

But the massive public outcry and the Brotherhood's defiant stance left the military with no option but to follow through on its threat to remove the president. The outcome is not just the removal of a government; it is the collapse of a burgeoning democratic system. Furthermore, the forcible removal of the Morsi government will make it difficult to create a new civilian government because the political environment will be even more polarized. The move has no doubt angered the Muslim Brotherhood, which we expect to push back dramatically. But just as important, the military has set a precedent for giving in to mob violence.

Morsi's downfall shows that the army's decades-long strategy of ruling without governing is proving increasingly difficult to impose. It cannot impose military rule because doing so would only aggravate tensions. It also shows that the country needs a coalition government. Such a government would be extremely difficult to create. Even though Egypt is constrained by the different factions and pressures in the country, the military remains the ultimate source of power in the country.

 

[OldSolduer]

I am not sorry to see the presidency of Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood done.  The CBC seems to think, IMO, that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood were just fine fellows doing what they could for their country.

I have my doubts about the Brotherhood, and I suspect others have those doubts as well.

 

[MilEME09]

Now I don't know all the details but from what I have read, seems like Morsi was more concerned with making Egypt a better place for the Muslim brotherhood then he was trying to stabilize the economy, or anything else for that matter. Frankly I saw it coming though, Egypt is pretty secular, so the attempt by the Muslim brotherhood to bring more religion into the nation would not sit well with the majority of the country. Hopefully things don't turn overly violent, though the brotherhood has threatened violence, I doubt they will on a large scale.

 

[Kilo_302]

I believe that the MB could become more moderate, but as I stated in an earlier post, all of these different factions define themselves in opposition to one another. The regime before Morsi was Mubarak, and he had the backing of the same military (and the US) that just carried out the coup. Now, this time the military has allied itself with what appears to be a broad coalition of groups who do not wish to see another Mubarak in power. But how do we know that won't happen again? Much of Mubarak's former regime is waiting in the wings to take back power so it's hard to say at this early juncture that the coup will have a net positive effect.

It's easy for us to sit in Canada and say anything is better than the MB, but ask Egyptians who may have suffered abuses at the hands of the Mubarak regime. Arguably, his despotic approach pushed any possible political opposition into the MB's arms, and also radicalized the MB itself. Now put yourself in the MB's shoes. Decades of political persecution at the hands of a military dictatorship (supported by the US and Israel), and you finally get into power via a democratic election, only to have it taken away by the same forces (as you see it) that you were fighting for the last 60 years. I'm certainly not defending what Morsi did since taking power nor am I defending some of the more extreme religious views of the MB, but you have to wonder at the wisdom of this coup. There are going to be plenty of angry MB supporters who again have LEGITIMATE grievances with the new government. Could be a recipe for a real conflict. I think a lot of this is a product of constant meddling from the outside in Egypt's politics.

 

[GAP]

I guess most have forgotten the constitution the MB pushed through and the restrictions/closing down/policies etc. that would help set up conditions to develop an Islamic Fundamentalist state similar to Iran....

 

[Kilo_302]

I guess most have forgotten the constitution the MB pushed through and the restrictions/closing down/policies etc. that would help set up conditions to develop an Islamic Fundamentalist state similar to Iran....

Well I certainly haven't, and as stated above I am not defending the MB. If I were an Egyptian I would most likely be happy to see Morsi gone. But the fact remains that political engagement is crucial to avoiding a more serious conflict. I just heard on the news that dozens of senior members of the MB have just been arrested. This is not going to help the situation.

 

[tomahawk6]

The thousands in Tahir Square certainly encouraged the Army to remove the islamists.It could just as well happen in Turkey.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Here's hoping.  :cheers: