Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[a_majoor]

Outside of the economic turmoil in China now that the property and real estate market is seeing massive defaults (a second company has defaulted), Chinese debt diplomacy may also cause economic problems.

The Chinese expended huge amounts of money to build these "string of pearls" ports/naval bases, and have become the de facto owners, but the ports themselves don't make any money, and how long will nations like Siri Lanka continue to pour money into repaying loans (often for the benefit of corrupt local elites)? Third World nations nationalized (expropriated) lots of corporate property in the past, and there is no reason they couldn't do the same to China. It's not like the Chinese can take the port home with them:

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The story of Hambantota Port: a flunking token of political corruption

In just seven years, Sri Lanka’s Port of Hambantota went from a bastion of hope to a dead weight that turned the developing economy into China’s debtor.

www.ship-technology.com

So there may be another shock or series of shocks as poor nations stop filling Chinese coffers - cutting off another flow of funds.

 

[dimsum]

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CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence.

mediabiasfactcheck.com

 

[The Bread Guy]

Not so "secret" anymore, I guess ...

• "US special forces secretly training troops in Taiwan – report" (Turkish media)
• "U.S. troops rotating into Taiwan for training -sources" (Reuters)
• "US special ops forces secretly training Taiwan's military, says Pentagon official" (Agence-France Presse via France 24)
• "(U.S.) Lawmakers say they were in the dark on US troop deployment to Taiwan" (Politico via South China Morning Post)
• "US troops’ secret presence in Taiwan island ‘no real threat,’ but could ‘bring China’s reunification closer’ " (Chinese Communist Party media - links to archived version to avoid linking to CHN server)
• "US’ revelation of troops in Taiwan will only hasten cross-Straits war: Global Times editorial" (Chinese Communist Party media - links to archived version to avoid linking to CHN server)

 

[CBH99]

In one media release by the CCP… “It may bring our reunion closer to happening.”

Aaaawwwww, you’re ‘Reunion’? We didn’t know you loved Taiwan so much that this whole thing was reuniting with them… that’s sweet.


Another media release by CCP, literally on the same day… “This may hasten the war we all know is coming.”

Wait China, earlier you said you wanted a reunion? It sounds more and more like a kidnapping tho…


If China does eventually go ‘full possessive ex-boyfriend’ on Taiwan, it will be doing itself a huge disservice for too many reasons to list right now.

But militarily, if it plunges that region into armed conflict, an invasion of Taiwan will only serve to weaken the Chinese military substantially at a time when it’s military needs to be strongest. 0.02


(Remember when we mentioned the other day whether Xi Jingping would be ousted by his own party? Yeah I think that would be hastened too, to be honest.)

 

[Altair]

If China haven't learned that amphibious and airborne invasions are amongst the most difficult and logistically complicated operations to pull off trying to invade Taiwan would be a very easy way to get up to speed in that regard.

 

[Dana381]

(Remember when we mentioned the other day whether Xi Jingping would be ousted by his own party? Yeah I think that would be hastened too, to be honest.)

If it fails I think your right. If successful however I could see him gaining much popularity amongst the CCP.

During the Falklands war Galtieri was a hero when the invasion succeeded but ended up ousted because he couldn't hold onto it.

The China/Taiwan affair may play out similar. China's history of war with the west has ended with draws (Korea/Vietnam). If they do decide to attack Taiwan they will fully expect to get away with it and I don't think the west has the political will to stop them.

Think Afghanistan; very little political backlash for pulling out and handing the country back to a terrorist regime that at least in part was responsible for an attack on American soil.

The American military kept it secret till today that they have been in Taiwan for a year now. They knew that it would be too unpopular back home.

If China Invades Taiwan in my opinion the majority of people in the west will not support their militaries backing Taiwan in a war. They will be afraid of WWIII with China. Too many Neville Chamberlains that will accept China's lies for fear of all out war.

Just my $0.02

 

[daftandbarmy]

And it looks like the 2022 Winter Olympics will not allow any nasty foreigners in to watch. I guess this kind of qualifies as a hostile takeover?

Overseas fans banned from 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics​

The Olympic Committee welcomed the decision to have Chinese spectators for the February event after Tokyo games were held with empty stadiums due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Next year’s Winter Olympics in Beijing will be held without fans from overseas with tickets restricted to fans living in China because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has announced.

The IOC also said only fully vaccinated participants at the Games, which start on February 4, would be exempt from a 21-day quarantine upon arrival, unless athletes can provide a “justified medical exemption”.

Overseas fans banned from 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics

IOC welcomed the decision to have Chinese spectators after Tokyo games were held with empty stadiums due to COVID-19.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[CBH99]

If it fails I think your right. If successful however I could see him gaining much popularity amongst the CCP.

During the Falklands war Galtieri was a hero when the invasion succeeded but ended up ousted because he couldn't hold onto it.

The China/Taiwan affair may play out similar. China's history of war with the west has ended with draws (Korea/Vietnam). If they do decide to attack Taiwan they will fully expect to get away with it and I don't think the west has the political will to stop them.

Think Afghanistan; very little political backlash for pulling out and handing the country back to a terrorist regime that at least in part was responsible for an attack on American soil.

The American military kept it secret till today that they have been in Taiwan for a year now. They knew that it would be too unpopular back home.

If China Invades Taiwan in my opinion the majority of people in the west will not support their militaries backing Taiwan in a war. They will be afraid of WWIII with China. Too many Neville Chamberlains that will accept China's lies for fear of all out war.

Just my $0.02

I can’t find anything in your post that I disagree with. All in all, I think you’re right and your logic is sound.

EXCEPT… for one minor deviation


I think China invading Taiwan - regardless of whether they win or lose - would be the end of Xi Jingping.

The only real question would be how long would it take for the CCP to have a suitable replacement in place prior to removing Xi.


The big difference between the Falklands example, and modern China, is the world didn’t rely on the Falklands to manufacture a majority of it’s goods on the cheap.

Nor did Argentina piss off it’s neighbours and present them with such a sinister threat in their future. Nor did Argentina’s neighbours spend the last decade plus arming themselves specifically with Argentina in mind.


- If China wins (and they will) it won’t do so without MASSIVE civilian casualties in Taiwan. These numbers will be far higher than what the west is used to seeing, and the media footage will be gruesome and quite savage.

Western countries will rush to find alternate suppliers for their goods, as none of them will want a trading relationship that supports what China is doing.

Western politicians will feed their fish what the fish want. Big corporations will rush to set up factories in other countries nearby, western countries will freeze trade agreements & review such, and before you know it China has yet ANOTHER income problem.


- Western countries will use this as the excuse they’ve been blatantly searching for in excluding Chinese companies from bidding on projects that involve national security, re 5G networks.


- Taiwan is armed to the teeth.

Will China eventually succeed just in terms of sheer numbers? Yes. But at what cost?

China would lose AT LEAST dozens of aircraft, warships, transport ships, along with plenty of other military assets.

These are now assets that can’t be used until replaced (both hardware and trained operator) at a time when the US and Japan would be engaging Chinese forces also. That’s a best case scenario for China too… having Australia, India, and South Korea jump into the fight would make things even worse.


China would start the conflict as the influential power that it is - a regional superpower without question.

China would end the conflict as a country with severed trade relationships with almost all western countries, shut out from bidding on a lot of projects in the west, a mass exodus of large international corporations that would be moving their assets to another country, and a military that would be substantially degraded.

Even if no other country came to Taiwan’s aid, Taiwan could take out enough of China’s warfighting assets to put its ambitions behind by at least a few years. (I feel like Taiwan will be a pissed off Honey Badger if it needs to be)


Overall, I don’t see the CCP seeing the above in China’s best interest (aka their best interest.)

So even if China wins the short term fight against Taiwan, the overall scenario would be the end of Xi Jingping.


Just my 0.02 cents, and I could very well be wrong.

 

[RangerRay]

Don’t underestimate the Canadian corporate butt-snorkelers’ ability to rehabilitate Beijing’s reputation. Just see how quickly they did it after Tianamin Square. Jean Chrétien and the Canada-China Business Council played a huge role in that.

 

[CBH99]

Don’t underestimate the Canadian corporate butt-snorkelers’ ability to rehabilitate Beijing’s reputation. Just see how quickly they did it after Tianamin Square. Jean Chrétien and the Canada-China Business Council played a huge role in that.

I’m genuinely saddened yet not surprised.

I need to Google it, as I don’t know anything about that specifically. But only to learn the details - the premise of what you say sounds maddeningly plausible and likely…



Maybe somebody else in the west can start to kiss China’s a** after the ‘pretty big skirmish’ is over?

I’m not sure why we are, it isn’t really doing us a ton of good anyway.

 

[Altair]

I can’t find anything in your post that I disagree with. All in all, I think you’re right and your logic is sound.

EXCEPT… for one minor deviation


I think China invading Taiwan - regardless of whether they win or lose - would be the end of Xi Jingping.

The only real question would be how long would it take for the CCP to have a suitable replacement in place prior to removing Xi.


The big difference between the Falklands example, and modern China, is the world didn’t rely on the Falklands to manufacture a majority of it’s goods on the cheap.

Nor did Argentina piss off it’s neighbours and present them with such a sinister threat in their future. Nor did Argentina’s neighbours spend the last decade plus arming themselves specifically with Argentina in mind.


- If China wins (and they will) it won’t do so without MASSIVE civilian casualties in Taiwan. These numbers will be far higher than what the west is used to seeing, and the media footage will be gruesome and quite savage.

Western countries will rush to find alternate suppliers for their goods, as none of them will want a trading relationship that supports what China is doing.

Western politicians will feed their fish what the fish want. Big corporations will rush to set up factories in other countries nearby, western countries will freeze trade agreements & review such, and before you know it China has yet ANOTHER income problem.


- Western countries will use this as the excuse they’ve been blatantly searching for in excluding Chinese companies from bidding on projects that involve national security, re 5G networks.


- Taiwan is armed to the teeth.

Will China eventually succeed just in terms of sheer numbers? Yes. But at what cost?

China would lose AT LEAST dozens of aircraft, warships, transport ships, along with plenty of other military assets.

These are now assets that can’t be used until replaced (both hardware and trained operator) at a time when the US and Japan would be engaging Chinese forces also. That’s a best case scenario for China too… having Australia, India, and South Korea jump into the fight would make things even worse.


China would start the conflict as the influential power that it is - a regional superpower without question.

China would end the conflict as a country with severed trade relationships with almost all western countries, shut out from bidding on a lot of projects in the west, a mass exodus of large international corporations that would be moving their assets to another country, and a military that would be substantially degraded.

Even if no other country came to Taiwan’s aid, Taiwan could take out enough of China’s warfighting assets to put its ambitions behind by at least a few years. (I feel like Taiwan will be a pissed off Honey Badger if it needs to be)


Overall, I don’t see the CCP seeing the above in China’s best interest (aka their best interest.)

So even if China wins the short term fight against Taiwan, the overall scenario would be the end of Xi Jingping.


Just my 0.02 cents, and I could very well be wrong.

I don't think any invasion of Taiwan is as clear cut as you make it sound.

Taiwan doesn't have many ideal amphibious invasion sites, and those it does have are amongst the most fortified places on earth. It would make Omaha Beach on d day look like a walk in the park. And Taiwan would absolutely wreck the east coast of mainland China. Taiwan holds a lot of intermediate and long range missiles which could hit most of the population centers of Eastern China and I don't think China could stop all of them.

Taiwan, I suspect, would also mine to hell the Taiwan strait making resupply and troop transport from China to Taiwan a challenging prospect.

Lastly, any invasion would be seen coming months in advance, with the naval buildup and troop movements being hard to mask.

Toss in a modern military and any support from west, especially the USA and or Japan and China won't win.

The only question is if the west has the stomach to stand with Taiwan.

 

[MilEME09]

Any conflict will go either one of two ways, either China will prove to be a paper tiger, and by that I mean while they have the men and equipment, poor tactics and decision making leads to their defeat.

Taiwan just needs to prevent a landing, the PLAN still only has 10 modern ships capable of deploying troops to shore. Given Taiwan strategy of swarm tactics, if the PLAN goes in over confidant, they will loose their key surface ships.

The other outcome is an utter steam roll invasion with a brutal Crack down on any civilians of a insurgency breaks out. China would prevent media into the island due to "security concerns " preventing international coverage in order to hide their brutality.

 

[Altair]

Any conflict will go either one of two ways, either China will prove to be a paper tiger, and by that I mean while they have the men and equipment, poor tactics and decision making leads to their defeat.

Taiwan just needs to prevent a landing, the PLAN still only has 10 modern ships capable of deploying troops to shore. Given Taiwan strategy of swarm tactics, if the PLAN goes in over confidant, they will loose their key surface ships.

The other outcome is an utter steam roll invasion with a brutal Crack down on any civilians of a insurgency breaks out. China would prevent media into the island due to "security concerns " preventing international coverage in order to hide their brutality.

Yes, China needs a lot of factors to go right.

Taiwan just needs 1.

Also, China should not underestimate the MAD doctrine. Taiwan would absolutely decimate the Chinese East coast if it came right down to it.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I can’t find anything in your post that I disagree with. All in all, I think you’re right and your logic is sound.

EXCEPT… for one minor deviation


I think China invading Taiwan - regardless of whether they win or lose - would be the end of Xi Jingping.

The only real question would be how long would it take for the CCP to have a suitable replacement in place prior to removing Xi.


The big difference between the Falklands example, and modern China, is the world didn’t rely on the Falklands to manufacture a majority of it’s goods on the cheap.

Nor did Argentina piss off it’s neighbours and present them with such a sinister threat in their future. Nor did Argentina’s neighbours spend the last decade plus arming themselves specifically with Argentina in mind.


- If China wins (and they will) it won’t do so without MASSIVE civilian casualties in Taiwan. These numbers will be far higher than what the west is used to seeing, and the media footage will be gruesome and quite savage.

Western countries will rush to find alternate suppliers for their goods, as none of them will want a trading relationship that supports what China is doing.

Western politicians will feed their fish what the fish want. Big corporations will rush to set up factories in other countries nearby, western countries will freeze trade agreements & review such, and before you know it China has yet ANOTHER income problem.


- Western countries will use this as the excuse they’ve been blatantly searching for in excluding Chinese companies from bidding on projects that involve national security, re 5G networks.


- Taiwan is armed to the teeth.

Will China eventually succeed just in terms of sheer numbers? Yes. But at what cost?

China would lose AT LEAST dozens of aircraft, warships, transport ships, along with plenty of other military assets.

These are now assets that can’t be used until replaced (both hardware and trained operator) at a time when the US and Japan would be engaging Chinese forces also. That’s a best case scenario for China too… having Australia, India, and South Korea jump into the fight would make things even worse.


China would start the conflict as the influential power that it is - a regional superpower without question.

China would end the conflict as a country with severed trade relationships with almost all western countries, shut out from bidding on a lot of projects in the west, a mass exodus of large international corporations that would be moving their assets to another country, and a military that would be substantially degraded.

Even if no other country came to Taiwan’s aid, Taiwan could take out enough of China’s warfighting assets to put its ambitions behind by at least a few years. (I feel like Taiwan will be a pissed off Honey Badger if it needs to be)


Overall, I don’t see the CCP seeing the above in China’s best interest (aka their best interest.)

So even if China wins the short term fight against Taiwan, the overall scenario would be the end of Xi Jingping.


Just my 0.02 cents, and I could very well be wrong.

Let's look at this from another angle - the Korean angle - if the 'West' sits on its hands while Taiwan goes down fighting, does this not embolden 'Kim the Youngest' in North Korea to make a play for the South?

Hell, why not even launch his attack a few days after the CCP launches theirs on Taiwan when it become apparent that the West is not going to support Taiwan? Yes the US has boots on the ground in SK but what if the North Koreans (and the CCP) make it public that they will not be attacking US positions in SK? By attacking SK, it almost guarantees that the US will not move any assets in SK or Japan out to help out Taiwan as they won't want to thin out their assets in the area (and the Japanese would demand that they don't). Moving CCP troops directly into NK assures their sovereignty while giving them the ability to ravage SK cities and industrial complexes. The US wouldn't be able to handle a two front war in essence.
If Taiwan does down and SK is burnt to the ground but not taken over, left to rebuild parts of this infrastructure and industries, what does that do to the US's existing and potential allies in the Asian theatre? Will that not make it more difficult for the US to cultivate and enhance alliances?

Remember, the Chinese play the long game and us the West have ADHD. I completely agree about the flight of capital out of China and it becoming a pryha state but they can always turn to others for some of their needs to be meet - Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Venezuela, etc. It's almost like the situation with the Taliban in Af'stan - we have the watches but they have the time.....

 

[Altair]

Let's look at this from another angle - the Korean angle - if the 'West' sits on its hands while Taiwan goes down fighting, does this not embolden 'Kim the Youngest' in North Korea to make a play for the South?

Hell, why not even launch his attack a few days after the CCP launches theirs on Taiwan when it become apparent that the West is not going to support Taiwan? Yes the US has boots on the ground in SK but what if the North Koreans (and the CCP) make it public that they will not be attacking US positions in SK? By attacking SK, it almost guarantees that the US will not move any assets in SK or Japan out to help out Taiwan as they won't want to thin out their assets in the area (and the Japanese would demand that they don't). Moving CCP troops directly into NK assures their sovereignty while giving them the ability to ravage SK cities and industrial complexes. The US wouldn't be able to handle a two front war in essence.
If Taiwan does down and SK is burnt to the ground but not taken over, left to rebuild parts of this infrastructure and industries, what does that do to the US's existing and potential allies in the Asian theatre? Will that not make it more difficult for the US to cultivate and enhance alliances?

Remember, the Chinese play the long game and us the West have ADHD. I completely agree about the flight of capital out of China and it becoming a pryha state but they can always turn to others for some of their needs to be meet - Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Venezuela, etc. It's almost like the situation with the Taliban in Af'stan - we have the watches but they have the time.....

The USA is very capable of keeping troops on the ground in nations that want them.

Japan, Germany, South Korea, Saudi Arabia.

I have no doubt Taiwan would welcome American forces there for the coming century if the USA was willing to risk the wrath of the CCP.

 

[MilEME09]

The USA is very capable of keeping troops on the ground in nations that want them.

Japan, Germany, South Korea, Saudi Arabia.

I have no doubt Taiwan would welcome American forces there for the coming century if the USA was willing to risk the wrath of the CCP.

Well reports are coming to light yesterday of US special forces in Taiwan to train local forces, that's huge and going to anger China, but now also offers a trip wire, if China attacks and causes American casualties, this goes pear-shaped very fast.

 

[Altair]

Well reports are coming to light yesterday of US special forces in Taiwan to train local forces, that's huge and going to anger China, but now also offers a trip wire, if China attacks and causes American casualties, this goes pear-shaped very fast.

China needs to walk the tightrope here as much as America does.

They have a limited window in which they can play on western war fatigue and work on their military, especially navy and amphibious buildup.

If they start shit now and rile up the American public and government, there will be US troops in Taiwan. America will flood Taiwan with high tech military equipment.

China is engaged in some serious Sabre rattling but if they draw it out and draw blood they will very quickly find out how they are not prepared for what comes next.

 

[MilEME09]

China needs to walk the tightrope here as much as America does.

They have a limited window in which they can play on western war fatigue and work on their military, especially navy and amphibious buildup.

If they start shit now and rile up the American public and government, there will be US troops in Taiwan. America will flood Taiwan with high tech military equipment.

China is engaged in some serious Sabre rattling but if they draw it out and draw blood they will very quickly find out how they are not prepared for what comes next.

Agreed, both sides have to thread the needle, but it's a much finer needle for China.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Let's look at this from another angle - the Korean angle - if the 'West' sits on its hands while Taiwan goes down fighting, does this not embolden 'Kim the Youngest' in North Korea to make a play for the South?

Hell, why not even launch his attack a few days after the CCP launches theirs on Taiwan when it become apparent that the West is not going to support Taiwan? Yes the US has boots on the ground in SK but what if the North Koreans (and the CCP) make it public that they will not be attacking US positions in SK? By attacking SK, it almost guarantees that the US will not move any assets in SK or Japan out to help out Taiwan as they won't want to thin out their assets in the area (and the Japanese would demand that they don't). Moving CCP troops directly into NK assures their sovereignty while giving them the ability to ravage SK cities and industrial complexes. The US wouldn't be able to handle a two front war in essence.
If Taiwan does down and SK is burnt to the ground but not taken over, left to rebuild parts of this infrastructure and industries, what does that do to the US's existing and potential allies in the Asian theatre? Will that not make it more difficult for the US to cultivate and enhance alliances?

Remember, the Chinese play the long game and us the West have ADHD. I completely agree about the flight of capital out of China and it becoming a pryha state but they can always turn to others for some of their needs to be meet - Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Venezuela, etc. It's almost like the situation with the Taliban in Af'stan - we have the watches but they have the time.....

if the North Attacked at the same time, that would cause the US to intervene on both fronts and things would get very hot, likely all conventional though, as neither side wants or could handle a nuclear war, even with just tactical nukes.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Then there's this issue, of course, which tends to be conveniently forgotten by many: