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Carbon Tax?

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These two stories (actually a news report and a column), reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post and Financial Post respectively (two semi-independent newspapers in one ‘bundle’) illustrate the green dilemma.

First he National Post news story:

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=610810
Obama's fight against 'dirty oil' could hurt oil sands

Sheldon Alberts, Washington Correspondent, Canwest News Service

Published: Tuesday, June 24, 2008

WASHINGTON -- Barack Obama on Tuesday vowed he would break America's addiction to "dirty, dwindling, and dangerously expensive" oil if he is elected U.S. president -- and one of his first targets might well be Canada's oil sands.

A senior adviser to Mr. Obama's campaign told reporters it's an "open question" whether oil produced from northern Alberta's oilsands fits with the Democratic candidate's plan to shift the U.S. sharply away from consumption of carbon-intensive fossil fuels.

"If it turns out that those technologies don't advance . . . and the only way to produce those resources would be at a significant penalty to climate change, then we don't believe that those resources are going to be part of the long-term, are going to play a growing role in the long-term future," said Jason Grumet, Mr. Obama's senior energy adviser.

The remarks amount to a shot across the bow of Alberta's oil sands industry, which is planning to boost production from 1.3 million barrels a day to 3.5 million barrels over the next decade.

The industry has come under sustained attack from U.S. environmentalists over the past year because the production of its heavy oil emits an estimated three times more greenhouse gases than conventional oil.

Mr. Obama has cast himself as a champion of green energy during his White House campaign, proposing a national low-carbon fuel standard that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 180 million metric tons by 2020. He has also promised to invest $150-billion in developing alternative energy, and to reduce American dependence on foreign oil by 35% by 2030.

"The possibilities of renewable energy are limitless," Mr. Obama said in an energy policy speech Tuesday in Las Vegas. "We've heard promises about it in every State of the Union [speech] for the last three decades. But each and every year, we become more, not less, addicted to oil -- a 19th-century fossil fuel that is dirty, dwindling, and dangerously expensive."

In a campaign conference call held Monday in advance of Mr. Obama's speech, the Illinois senator's top advisers were asked what impact his energy plan might have on U.S. imports from Canada's oil sands.

There is "a lot of technological development underway" to reduce the carbon footprint of oil sands production, Mr. Grumet said, but there continues to be "unacceptably high carbon emissions" associated with production of the fuel.

"The amount of energy that you have to use to get that oil out of the ground is such that it actually creates a much greater impact on climate change, as well as using much more energy than even traditional petroleum," he said.

Mr. Obama is committed to supporting energy sources that help slow climate change if elected -- and he will reward industries that meet tough new greenhouse gas standards, Mr. Grumet said.

"It's a meritocracy. We are going to support resources that diversify petroleum supplies, that bring more production to this hemisphere, and that meet our long-term obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," he said. "And I think it's an open question as to whether or not the Canadian resources are going to meet those tests."

Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, has also vowed to support alternative energy and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Mr. McCain has placed more emphasis, however, on the need to lower American reliance on oil from the Middle East and countries like Nigeria and Venezuela. "America imports about one-third of its oil from Canada and Mexico and no one need worry about a reliance on friendly, stable neighbours, and partners in NAFTA," Mr. McCain said in a speech Monday in Fresno, Calif.

Christopher Sands, a Canada-U.S. relations expert at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, said Mr. Obama's energy policy could pose as big a challenge to the Canadian economy as his vow to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.

"What he wants to do, clearly, is to eliminate oil sources like the oil sands. He is very aware of them and the process that's generating them," Mr. Sands said.

"That is a threat to the oilsands and [Canada] has to take this much more seriously."

Canada is the largest supplier of oil and gas to the U.S. and Ottawa has spent several years -- particularly since the 9-11 terrorist attacks -- promoting the country as a safe and secure source of energy for the American market.

But the greater awareness of Canada's importance as a U.S. energy supplier has brought added scrutiny and criticism.

Canada's oil industry was already targeted this week at a convention of big-city U.S. mayors, who singled out Alberta's oilsands in a resolution calling for national guidelines to track the life-cycle impact of different types of fossil fuels.

The mayors' attack drew a sharp response from Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach, who questioned the logic of attacking North American energy sources like the Alberta oilsands when the United States imports a great deal of its oil from much further away.

"How are you going to convince me that the carbon footprint is less by developing the oil in Iraq . . . and shipping it to the coast and refining it there?" he said.

Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier also blasted his U.S. counterparts, saying they need to visit Alberta in person to "get the facts on oil-sands production."

"This resolution suggests a lack of understanding," he said, adding the U.S. mayors should focus more on promoting energy efficiency, conservation and the adoption of new "green" technologies.

Some in Canada's energy industry are also alarmed about the potential impact to the oil sands of recent legislation -- championed by Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman -- that bans the U.S. government from buying alternative fuel that generate more emissions than conventional oil.

"I don't think Canadians realize what's at stake in this election is a real fight," Mr. Sands said. In addition to Obama's emphasis on lower-carbon fuels, "you have a Congress champing at the bit to interfere with the glide path we all thought we all thought we are on" with Canadian oil exports to the U.S.

Alberta's oilsands industry this week embarked on a new public relations offensive aimed at highlighting its environmental advances, and has touted a marked reduction in the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions from production over the past decade. Research is also underway to reduce the amount of water used in oil-sands production.

"If it turns out that the technology moves forward and it's possible to develop those resources in ways that are energy efficient and that don't have other attendant unacceptable impacts on water use, land use, etc., then those resources will continue to play a significant and growing role in the global economy," said Mr. Grumet, Mr. Obama's adviser.

And now the Financial Post column:

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=611010
Pander to voters at peril, U.S. told
Canada's energy sector may look for new markets

Claudia Cattaneo, Financial Post

Published: Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Big-city U. S. mayors and presidential hopeful Barack Obama, who joined the parade this week of ill-informed, U. S. anti-oil sands policies, should be careful what they wish for.

While the aim is undoubtedly to pander to the electorate in an election year charged with oil and climate-change debate, what they are stoking is an increasingly angry Canadian energy industry that is seriously looking at non-U. S. markets for its oil.

Here's what Rick George, chief executive of Suncor Energy Inc., Canada's largest single oil sands producer, said this week, reflecting rising frustration with the wave of American anti-oil sands policies:

"We are down to very limited amounts of spare capacity," he said. "Mexico is in very steep decline. The North Sea is in decline. Venezuela is likely to slip from here. There are problems in Nigeria, Russia. The world will absorb this oil one way or the other. If the U. S. doesn't take it, then we will develop other markets."

Borrowing heavily from the rhetoric of the environmental movement, right down to using the pejorative "tar sands" to describe Canada's reserves, mayors from the United States' largest cities adopted a resolution at a meeting in Miami on Monday singling out Western Canada's oil-sands sector as part of a crackdown on fuels that cause global warming.

Yesterday, Mr. Obama vowed to break America's addiction to "dirty, dwindling and dangerously expensive" oil if elected U. S. president -- and he said one of his first targets may well be imports from Canada's oil sands. A senior advisor to Obama's campaign said it's an "open question" whether Alberta's oil sands fit with Obama's vision for shifting the U. S. dramatically away from carbon-intensive fuels.

The moves follow the adoption in December by the U. S. federal government of a law that bans federal procurement of alternative fuels that generate more greenhouse gases than "conventional sources," which could include oil from the oil sands. A campaign by the Canadian sector to exclude Canada's oil has yet to bear fruit.

Meanwhile, California has adopted low-carbon fuel standards that disfavour Canada's production.

Canada's oil is now exported almost exclusively to the United States because it's dependent on the reach of pipelines. Of the 2.7 million barrels produced daily, 1.6 million is sold to Americans and 15,000 to 25,000 goes to non-U. S. markets, through a Kinder Morgan Energy Partners oil pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast.

That picture could soon change.

The sector is looking at reversing Enbridge Inc.'s Line 9, which would allow Western Canadian oil to move all the way to Montreal, and then from there move on another pipeline to the East coast, where it could be loaded on tankers for sale offshore. Because the pipelines are already built, it's estimated it would take barely a year to reverse the flow of the oil and open that new option.

Meanwhile, interest is perking up yet again to build another pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast, to Kitimat or Prince Rupert, where oil tankers could sail to Asian markets.

Greg Stringham, vice-president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said oil-sands companies are studying the alternatives because they want to keep their options open in case U. S. policies reduce their access to the U. S. market.

It's not the first time the Canadian sector has pondered offshore oil routes. It's time to take them seriously.

Here is the problem that Dion, Obama and the green community refuse to acknowledge: petroleum consumption (and, consequently, production) is on the rise in Asia and it will continue to grow, for decades, no matter what the impact on the environment may be. Asians – Chinese, Indians, Indonesians, Malaysians, Filipinos, Thais, etc – are not insensitive to the environment but they are determined to enjoy the (material) benefits of their efforts (the fruits of their labours and savings, if you like) and they need petroleum to do that. While America is, by far, our ‘best’ (closest, easiest to service) market, it is certainly not the only one. A new ‘trans-mountain’ pipeline expansion is under construction now, see: this Edmonton Journal report. If Americans don’t want the oil it will sell well in Asia. Canadians who are concerned with the high environmental costs of meeting Asia’s surging demand must consider how to produce oil from tar sands at a lower environmental cost because it will still need to be produced.




 
More along the same lines but by a journalist I always look forward to reading:

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act .

Carbon cuts are just a fantasy
MARGARET WENTE

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

VANCOUVER — I have bad news for Stéphane Dion. Out here in B.C., the people are revolting. Gordon Campbell's much-applauded carbon tax was pretty popular in February. But now, as people are being hammered by record gas prices, the enthusiasm has cooled. A new poll says a whopping 59 per cent of British Columbians now oppose the tax - and it hasn't even kicked in yet.

Beware the fickle voters. Everyone loves carbon taxes, until they have to pay them. But there's a much bigger and more serious reason for people to be skeptical of carbon taxes, cap-and-trade plans, green shifts, offset schemes and all the other policy proposals that have fuelled such mind-numbing debate. The reason is that they won't work. And you don't have to be a climate-change denier to see why.

I know, I know. Mr. Dion likes to tell us the planet's fate is in our hands. Sorry! It's not. It's a big old world out there, and most of the six billion people in it are scrambling to use more energy, not less.

The dimensions of the problem are hard to overstate. As we demand more wind, solar, geothermal and biofuels, the other five-odd billion demand more oil, coal and natural gas. As we debate the niceties of carbon taxes versus cap-and-trade, global energy demand is projected to increase another 60 per cent by 2030.
Despite our good intentions, we can't do anything about it. Last year, China clearly overtook the United States as the world's biggest CO2 emitter. It now accounts for two-thirds of the yearly increase in global emissions. China and India will build a new coal generator roughly once a week for the next 25 years. As we ditch our gas-guzzling SUVs, the Chinese are buying 20,000 new cars every day. Two billion people still lack access to electricity. If we try to tell them they can't have it, they'll just laugh at us.

Could we reduce our carbon footprint enough to compensate for all this furious growth? Not a chance. We'd have to repeal air travel, cars and the rest of the 20th century. Global warming is really hard to fix. But don't take it from me.

A recent commentary in Nature, titled Dangerous Assumptions, argues that reducing CO2 emissions over the next century will be far more challenging than we've been led to believe. The authors - climate policy expert Roger Pielke Jr., climatologist Tom Wigley and economist Christopher Green - contend the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has badly overstated our technological ability to cut emissions. The idea that we can regulate our way to a completely new economy is, in Nature's words, "a fairy tale."

A lot of big scientific guns agree. Vaclav Smil, distinguished environment professor at the University of Manitoba, comments, "The speed of transition from a predominantly fossil-fuelled world ... is being grossly overestimated: All energy transitions are multigenerational affairs. Their progress cannot substantially be accelerated either by wishful thinking or by government ministers' fiats." Stanford's Christopher Field writes, "It is hard to see how, without a massive increase in investment, the requisite number of relevant technologies will be mature and available when we need them."

In other words, it will take a massive technological revolution to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions, and anyone who says otherwise is kidding you. It's all very well to say that we ought to lead by example, and do what we can. It's a good thing to start figuring out how we can eventually wean ourselves off fossil fuels. But if all our efforts to regulate carbon amount to scooping sand from the Sahara with a teaspoon, shouldn't we face facts?

"We may have set ourselves down the wrong path when we framed the challenge of mitigating greenhouse gases in terms of reducing emissions," says Mr. Pielke. He says only massive long-term investments in carbon-neutral technologies will do the trick. Keep that in mind during the next eye-glazing round of green debates.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080624.wcowente24/BNStory/specialComment/home



 
Senator Obama may have killed his Presidential asperations right there; how will the American voter react if they are told in forceful terms that the Democratic candidate is willing to cut off America's biggest oil supply (and from a friendly nation to boot), and ensure the US price for gasoline remains well above $4.00 USD/Gal for the length of his administration?

As we should always keep in mind; American voters elect their representatives on domestic issues. We have already seen the angry reaction to Stephan Dion's "Carbon Tax" proposals here in Canada; just imagine how similar proposals (or campaign planks with the same end effect i.e. huge increases in energy prices) will play out for the next several months in the United States.
 
ER,

The proposed nuclear power plant in Northern Alberta is one "solution" to Obama's little dilemna.  

Of note, is also the fact that any shale oil or Coal fuel development in the US has the same "carbon footprint" label.  Also worth noting I believe something like 57% of the trade imbalance is due to energy imports.( I can't remember where I got that )

In short, the Dems are doing their best to put the US on an energy diet.
I'm fairly certain that if Refined Petroleum came to them in a pipeline from heaven the democrats would call it "dirty".
 
Re the pipelines to the coast - diversification is always a good strategy and as Nigeria, Saudi, Iraq and The Gulf States daily demonstrate nothing says diversification like a salt water port.  It defines fungibility.  Once the product reaches tide water it is available to all-comers.  Venezuela is a similar beneficiary of salt water access.


But speaking of Venezuela, I understand from a Venezuelan engineer of my acquaintance that much of Venezuelan oil is associated with similar deposits to the oil sands but currently they are only exploiting the "free" (ie unbound) oil.  How long does that supply last?  How "Clean" is that?


Is Venezuela a better trading partner than Canada because its "needs" are greater? 
 
Does this clown actually think this will get people (other than Ontario) to support his plan? He's going to tax the hell out of all Canadians to support his social programs but blame Sask and Alberta?

Dion's plan targets oil-rich provinces
Tax to hit Alberta, Saskatchewan hard
CAROLINE ALPHONSO From Friday's Globe and Mail June 27, 2008 at 4:00 AM EDT
Article Link

TORONTO — Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion says 40 per cent of Canada's carbon emissions come from Alberta and Saskatchewan and the two western provinces will have to do the most to change their habits under his new green plan. But he said it will be good for them - and he's taking that message to the Calgary Stampede next weekend.

"If we do this plan, Alberta and Saskatchewan will be better off 10 years from now than if we don't do this plan," Mr. Dion said. "Their economies will be more diversified, their universities will be at the centre of something big happening around the world, and investments will grow."

He rejected the notion that the two highest polluting provinces having to contend with a greater carbon tax burden could result in Western alienation.

"To do the right thing will be beneficial for them," Mr. Dion told The Globe and Mail's editorial board. "I care about Alberta and Saskatchewan. I know many people who want to do the right thing. Many will know that it will create jobs there - green jobs."
More on link
 
Martha Hall Findlay is publicly endorsing the Liberal Carbon Tax but she made a half-hearted, unconvincing defense of the policy on the Michael Coren Show. I'd like to know what Ignatief and Rae think about it and if they're all privately licking their chops.
 
Dion faces carbon-tax backlash in West
BILL CURRY  From Saturday's Globe and Mail June 27, 2008 at 7:40 PM EDT
Article Link

Alberta and Saskatchewan lashed out at Stéphane Dion on Friday, warning their economies would take a major hit under the Liberal Leader's plan to tax carbon emissions.

Saskatchewan, which only recently started to cash in on the oil boom, is particularly hostile to Mr. Dion's proposal. “It's going to dramatically impact upon our economy and we're just not in favour of it in any way,” Saskatchewan Energy and Resources Minister Bill Boyd said.

Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach attacked the Liberal plan at a news conference. “It's going to hurt Alberta,” he said, predicting the province could “take a major hit.”

“I'm also concerned about the rest of Canada, because this effect will flow from coast to coast.”

.....~~~.....

Mr. Boyd, of the conservative Saskatchewan Party, says that political map has a lot to do with Mr. Dion's new policy.

“I think it's clear that Mr. Dion has looked at that in a very crass political way and made the political calculation that there's nothing for him to lose anyway,” Mr. Boyd said. “If he can take some of the wealth from Western Canada where he has no vote support whatsoever and redistribute it to Eastern Canada, he has a better chance of winning the next election.”

.....~~~.....

Radio host John Gormley, a former Tory MP, warned the federal Liberal Leader his idea will be a hard sell in the Prairies. Mr. Gormley said the recent harsh words from Prime Minister Stephen Harper about the plan are resonating.

“He said you're going to screw the West, were his words, and I think most of us agree with that.”

Mr. Dion's lone Saskatchewan MP, Mr. Goodale, insists the comments from Mr. Gormley and the two provincial governments are out of sync with the reaction he's hearing from voters.

“It's been very measured,” he said. “And in terms of sheer volume, far more positive than negative.”
More on link
 
I noted earlier that the magnitude of the tax, in my opinion, is not of itself a particular hardship.  However a tax doesn't have to be intolerable to be a rallying point.  The Yankees didn't even drink that much tea, probably making it easier to "symbolically" dump it in the harbour.

I'll be fascinated to watch how this plays out, not just in Alberta and Saskatchewan but also in Manitoba and the "hinterlands" of BC.

In BC the Vancouver Sun reported about a month ago on the newfound riches coming out of the hinterland of the Northeast.  And that attitude concerning everything east of the Port Mann bridge is common in Vancouver.  Meanwhile the people of the Coal rich Crows Nest Pass head to Lethbridge for shopping and Calgary for medical attention and the oil and gas workers of Fort St John have an easy drive into Edmonton.  Prince Rupert has benefited from northern coal.

In Manitoba Albertan rig workers are finding work drilling new holes in the Brandon area.

Westerners tend to be pretty mobile internally.  The lack of physical barriers mean that Prince Rupert to the Lakehead tends to be seen as just one big community. Vancouver and Victoria are not part of that community in the same way that Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg are.  MacMurray is driving employment all over the area.  Lots of folks are working up north on seasonal contracts or commuting into the area or staying at home and feeding MacMurray with goods and services. And they know where their paychecks come from.

NEP 1 didn't just affect Albertans.  It affected the employment opportunities of all Westerners and resonates amongst many out here.

NEP 2 won't just affect Albertans either.

My curiousity will be in seeing how many seats Dion plans to win east of Port Mann or even in Manitoba. 

As to Newfoundland......Danny must be wondering what to do next.  He doesn't like the deal Harper offered, a choice of what he wanted or what he wanted.  How's the competition shaping up?

And then, beyond all that, there is the reception that another tax will have on a population that is already seeing costs escalating.  Straws and camels.
 
Kirkhill said:
Re the pipelines to the coast - diversification is always a good strategy and as Nigeria, Saudi, Iraq and The Gulf States daily demonstrate nothing says diversification like a salt water port.  It defines fungibility.  Once the product reaches tide water it is available to all-comers.  Venezuela is a similar beneficiary of salt water access.


But speaking of Venezuela, I understand from a Venezuelan engineer of my acquaintance that much of Venezuelan oil is associated with similar deposits to the oil sands but currently they are only exploiting the "free" (ie unbound) oil.  How long does that supply last?  How "Clean" is that?


Is Venezuela a better trading partner than Canada because its "needs" are greater? 

Yep.  It's called the Orinoco Tar Sands....absolutely huge reserve of OOIP (the actual amount is debateable but it's safe to say it's greater than a trillion barrels - how much is recoverable is dependent upon the price of oil).  Sadly it's very low API (less than 10 API which means it actually sinks in water), high asphaltenes and sulpher.  In short, although plentiful, you need to do a tremendous amount of upgrading to it and even then your output mix doesn't yield a high proportion of transportation fuels which is what we're short of.  I haven't seen number of EROEI, but I bet it's high, and I bet it's dirty.  We'll have to see how Petroleos de Venezuela (my apologies to any Spanish speakers if I butchered that) deals with development since the nationalization of a huge portion of the reserve from Exxon....I think Total, Chevron & maybe Statoil instead accepted punitive lease rewrites (sorry, I read that a long time ago on Rigzone or the Oil Drum or something).


Matthew.  :salute:
 
The maritime provinces still rely on "carbon heavy" energy to a greater degree than most provinces.  This carbon tax "folly" would adversely affect, IMHO, any Liberal chances this side of Quebec.  I'm fairly certain that Newfoundland and Labrador would also suffer from this so-called "green plan" (there are no targets for reduction of emissions, and if all industry decided that it was better for them to reduce emissions, thus reducing their levies, the government would suddenly be out of cash, thus causing them to re-raise taxes).
In short, M. Dion only sees as far as Thunder Bay in one direction, and Rimouski in the other.
 
Apparently, Mr Dion is trying to emulate Australia, without looking at the factors in play during that election:

http://stevejanke.com/archives/267578.php

Selling the carbon tax: Canadian apples and Australian oranges
Saturday, June 28, 2008 at 06:32 PM Comments: 5
Previous Post

In a remarkable story from the Canadian Press, we learn that Stephane Dion and the Liberals have been inspired by Kevin Rudd's success in winning the November 2007 general election in Australia based in part on a platform that included a carbon tax.

Really, that can't possible be true, can it?  I mean, has anyone noticed how much has changed since last November, and what next November is shaping up to be like?

Is Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion planning to win an election using Labour Party leader Kevin Rudd as a role model?

    Australia seems to have become something of a role model for Canadian politicians.

    Indeed, Dion acknowledges his risky decision to make a carbon tax the cornerstone of the upcoming Liberal platform was influenced, at least in part, by the example of Kevin Rudd. The Labour leader won last November's election in Australia, promising bold action on climate change.

    "The Labour party has been elected with a courageous platform of climate change," Dion said in a recent interview. "It can be done."

It can be done in an environment of stable gas prices.  Here is a chart I put together showing Canadian gas prices.  Australian gas prices would have followed the same pattern.

When the Australians went to the polls, they had seen gas prices stable for over six months.  Indeed, the overall trend was slightly down.  There was room for a carbon tax in the minds of voters who were somewhat concerned about the environment but unsure what to do about it.

A carbon tax would have appealed to these people.  But voting for a carbon tax, they would have felt that they had done something positive for the environment, without actually doing anything, like recycling more or buying a hybrid car.

Stephane Dion is hinting that he would force a fall election.  Based on the extrapolation, we could see gas prices of $1.60 or $1.70 or more.  Official with OPEC are predicting the same thing:

    OPEC President Chakib Khelil predicted that the price of oil will climb to $170 a barrel before the end of the year, citing the dollar's decline and political conflicts.

    "Oil prices are expected to reach $170 as demand for fuel is growing in the U.S. during the summer period and the dollar continues to weaken against the euro,'' Khelil said today in a telephone interview. The leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also serves as Algeria's oil minister.

Not only would the backdrop for this Canadian election be six months of increasing gas prices, but we might not be at the end of the climb.  Stephane Dion would be arguing for a massive tax applied to everything to punish us for using fuel (either directly or through the purchase of goods and services) as we are struggling to buy what minimum fuel we need to get to work, work that earns us money that will already be spent mostly on fuel.

Canadian apples and Australian oranges.  I can't see how the Kevin Rudd experience in Australia in 2007 can offer any useful lessons to a tax-happy Canadian politician in 2008.

But the really weird thing is that none of this is mentioned in the article.
 
The 2 Northern Premiers have said "Non"

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080629/dion_north_080629/20080629?hub=TopStories

Northern premiers give thumbs down to carbon tax
Updated Sun. Jun. 29 2008 8:42 AM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

Canada's northern premiers emerged from two days of meetings in Yellowknife giving the thumbs down to Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's carbon tax proposal.

Northwest Territories Premier Floyd Roland, Yukon Premier Dennis Fentie and Nunavut Premier Paul Okalik said the plan would not be fair to their residents.

"We'd rather focus on alternatives to get away from fossil fuels. But to add on a cost to very high fuel costs already is just not an option for homeowners in our territory," Okalik said.

"(In the North), there really are no alternatives for us in Nunavut to turn to, to get away from diesel generation for power and for heat,'' he said.

Dion unveiled his "Green Shift" plan earlier this month. It would put a $15.4 billion tax on carbon emissions. The Liberals say the increase in taxes would be offset by cuts in income and corporate taxes. They claim the tax will be revenue neutral and punish big polluters.

Critics have called it a tax grab and say it won't help the fight against climate change. They say also it will raise the prices of goods related to energy.

Roland said the carbon tax may pass "on to the end user an additional cost of doing business.''

Fentie was also not convinced the carbon tax would reduce emissions.

"We think there are better ways to deal with this issue than another tax being applied, especially in the North where the cost of goods and services is already predominantly higher than anywhere else in the country,'' he said.

The premiers were meeting to discuss common issues



 
Here's a really good article from Thursday's Vancouver Sun:

<a href="http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/editorial/story.html?id=2454f7eb-d8ac-4aab-9453-43d286fc570c&p=1">Link</a>

The carbon tax is economic folly
It will fuel cost-push inflation and do little to accomplish the environmental goals it was created to meet

Harvey Enchin, Vancouver Sun
Published: Thursday, June 26, 2008

On June 1, Dow Chemical raised prices on all of its products -- including polyethylene, propylene and benzene -- by as much as 25 per cent, citing higher energy costs.

Hardly front-page news, you say, but the move is a harbinger of still higher costs to come. These polymer-based products are the building blocks of most consumer goods and Dow, being the largest chemical company in the United States, will set the trend for the industry.

Environmentalists may celebrate the rising cost of production of plastic bags, but as these costs permeate the system they will increase the price of nearly everything, contributing to a phenomenon known to economists as cost-push inflation.

Text books tell us that cost-push inflation is the result of a decrease in aggregate supply caused by an increase in the cost of production inputs. We don't have to look far for real-life examples of high input costs.

The price of oil has more than doubled in a year, lifting a litre of gasoline here in the Lower Mainland ever closer to $1.50. Airlines are hiking fares and laying off workers, BC Ferries has proposed a ticket surcharge to help offset a $100-million increase in its fuel costs over the past three years, and shippers are passing on higher operating costs to their customers.

In short order, unprofitable routes will be cut, scheduled departures will be less frequent and fewer deliveries will be made. As input costs climb, companies are less inclined to make capital investments, so production capacity falls behind. General Motors may have given its Oshawa assembly plant a reprieve, but other manufacturing plants are likely to be shuttered as production costs escalate.

There's not much central banks can do to alleviate this insidious form of inflation, but they can make matters worse. The knee-jerk response to contain inflation is to hike interest rates. This can be effective in dampening demand, and might be the right cure for demand-pull inflation, in which the increase in aggregate demand is the cause of the malaise. But the culprit in the current round of inflation is a commodities bubble. Higher interest rates will succeed only in slowing an economy that's already shifted into low gear, and raise rather than lower prices.

Putting the brakes on demand would be particularly damaging to the British Columbia economy where personal consumption on goods and services accounts for 68.6 per cent of gross domestic product. That compares with just 50.3 per cent in Alberta and 60 per cent in Canada overall.

Now that the construction boom has run its course and a strong Canadian dollar and ailing U.S. economy have put the kibosh on exports, consumer spending will be the primary driver of economic growth through 2009. Slowing labour-force growth will be an additional drag on the economy.

Two things a thinking government would not want to do given this scenario is add to production costs and depress personal consumption. Premier Gordon Campbell's Liberal government plans to do both.

The purpose of the carbon tax to take effect on Tuesday is to change consumption patterns. It imposes penalties on consumers who choose to heat their homes, drive their cars or turn on their lights. Few consumers have the disposable income to convert to solar heating, buy hybrid vehicles or adopt other expensive technologies touted by the eco-lobby.

Article continues on link.
 
Economically speaking, "Revenue Neutrality" is a bit of a misnomer. If the Carbon Tax is revenue neutral, then there are no incentives to change behavior. The other open question is Revenue Neutral for whom? The Taxpayer? Business? Government?

http://hespeler.blogspot.com/2008/06/lie-of-revenue-neutrality.html

The Lie of Revenue Neutrality

A little less than a year ago John Palmer at EclecEcon had a post on the three most important concepts in economics. While some fools were arguing utility theory and the theory of perfect competition, he argued for opportunity cost. Opportunity cost isn't just basic, econ 101 stuff, it is econ 101, day 1, page 1. It works this way: every time you engage in economic activity (i.e. buy something), you make a choice. I buy this litre of gas or that litre of milk, for instance. It's so simple, and so often misunderstood.

Why misunderstood? An example: when Stéphane Dion says we want to make polluting pay, that's opportunity cost. When he says he will return the money to you through the tax system, that's misunderstanding opportunity cost. Here's why: if it costs more to heat your house you have two choices: run the furnace less (i.e. turn down the heat) or sacrifice other economic activity to accommodate the extra cost (before the clever among you cite the obvious problem with this case, savings and leisure time both count as "economic activity"). If you're public policy objective is reducing carbon producing activity, this will effectively work. It is that choice between competing economic activities that will give you incentive to reduce. However, if you give back the extra you took at the thermostat, you have eliminated the incentive. Revenue neutral means, or is intended to mean, opportunity cost = zero. But with zero opportunity cost, there is zero incentive to reduce.

I have cited before others problems with both a carbon tax as it is being sold, and with the concept of revenue neutral: the real level of taxation required to be effective; revenue neutral means neutral for the government; what happens to the tax when it effectively works amd government revenues decline?

But the truth is the main reason revenue neutral is bad policy is opportunity cost. Revenue neutral means zero opportunity cost, and without opportunity cost Dion's tax shift is simply for the sake of shifting taxes. Or as Stephen Harper would put it, it's crazy economics.

 
When I first heard of the scheme here in BC, the first thing I thought was "It may be revenue neutral for government, but not for taxpayers who have to use carbon based fuels."

It's a term used to attempt to placate taxpayers.
 
Kirkhill said:
I noted earlier that the magnitude of the tax, in my opinion, is not of itself a particular hardship.  However a tax doesn't have to be intolerable to be a rallying point.  The Yankees didn't even drink that much tea, probably making it easier to "symbolically" dump it in the harbour.

They didn't dump all tea, they dumped East India Company tea. The import tax was on several commodities at first. After protestes it was reduced to just tea. Then the British exempted the East India Company from the tax. This pissed off the colonists and brought the tax issue back to the front burner.

This in some ways shows the problem I have with a carbon tax. The 'revenue neutral' is government wide and not for individual or groups of taxpayers. This means some groups will pay more and some less meaning some are in effect exempt from the tax while others foot the bill and are at a disadvantage.
 
GAP said:
Mr. Boyd, of the conservative Saskatchewan Party, says that political map has a lot to do with Mr. Dion's new policy.

“I think it's clear that Mr. Dion has looked at that in a very crass political way and made the political calculation that there's nothing for him to lose anyway,” Mr. Boyd said. “If he can take some of the wealth from Western Canada where he has no vote support whatsoever and redistribute it to Eastern Canada, he has a better chance of winning the next election.”

Finally someone who pointed out the obvious. NEP 2 will not be greeted with open arms out west. Dion will be in for a very rude shock when he travels out there trying to promote his latest idiotic, money grab.
 
2 Cdo said:
Finally someone who pointed out the obvious. NEP 2 will not be greeted with open arms out west. Dion will be in for a very rude shock when he travels out there trying to promote his latest idiotic, money grab.

I suspect his motivation for going out west is to portray himself as a "national" party leader, rather than simply the leader of a rump Ontario party. He would gladly sacrifice any and all Liberal party MP's and supporters west of Manitoba if that would ensure he gets the all important Ontario seats. Of course trying to sow confusion in the ranks of the rival Green and NDP parties is a bonus if that can be done at the same time.

Regardless of how the West or Atlantic Canada feels, the battleground for the next election will take place in a small number of seats in Ontario and Quebec. Prime Minister Harper needs to effectively communicate the real impact of these schemes to Ontarians and Quebeckers, many who seem to be convinced they can indeed continue to feed off other parts of Canada without going down with the rest of the ship.
 
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