Canadian Public Opinion Polls on Afghanistan

[The Bread Guy]

Finally found a copy of some more detailed figures on the latest Leger Marketing polling (attached as PDF) - here's a link to the entire survey, which includes how different parties are faring.

 

[bdave]

I think most people misunderstand what we're actually doing there.
I *think* most (Canadian) people feel that we're fighting a useless war. We aren't the ones who were attacked so why should we be involved. What does this have to do with us?

I feel as though the Canadian spirit has died.
Weren't our nation's founding moments during the first and second world wars?
When we heard un-justice was being done, we didn't cry about it. We grabbed our guns, our boots and our courage and we stormed out the door. We didn't care that it had little to no effect on us. Over a million of us stormed out to help.
While the stakes are obviously lower today, the idea is the same.
Someone needs our help, so let's help them.
First we were helping our American brothers and now we're trying to "free" the Afghani people and bring them up to date on civilization.
I think people have forgotten what it is exactly we're fighting for.
Who cares what the politicians want the war for (oil in Afghanistan..what?), you should be able to see the past it and see the good that can come from it.

There are two ways to help someone being oppressed.
You can either help them by tending to their wounds (mental or physical) or you can take care of the oppressor. If you're smart, you'll do both.
Canadians want us to do the tending (help and rebuild) and no killing.
I think concerning the people [insurgents] we are dealing with, that is impossible.

/end childish and overly patriotic rant

 

[The Bread Guy]

From the news release:

Public backing for the mission in Afghanistan is eroding in two countries, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 59 per cent of respondents in Britain oppose the military operation involving UK soldiers in Afghanistan, up six points since July.

In Canada, overall support for the mission stands at 37 per cent, down six points in three months. In the United States, public backing for the military commitment remains stable at 54 per cent....

Full poll results attached.

 

[The Bread Guy]

From Harris-Decima (PDF of news release), for the Canadian Press - highlights:

Canadians remain more opposed than supportive of the government’s commitment to have troops in Afghanistan. Nationally, 56% are opposed, basically unchanged since measured in May (54%). Currently, 37% support the mission, including 9% who strongly support it. No region finds a majority supporting the mission.

(....)

Canadians still more inclined to feel the troops should stay to the 2011 end date. A slight majority (55%) feel that our troops should stay at least to the end date in 2011, including 10% who feel the troops should remain beyond that date. These numbers are also unchanged since May.

(....)

The idea of having a civilian mission replace the military one in 2011 finds more support than opposition. Nationally, 49% would support such a mission, while 40% would be opposed to it.

(....)

Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. These data were gathered between October 15 and October 19 2009. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

More from the Canadian Press here.

 

[OldSolduer]

When I read these, I wonder....well have several questions;

Where are these polls conducted?
Who conducts them? Not just a corporate name, but a name.
How is the question asked?
Who pays for these polls?

Finally, where have our values gone? Why is it "unfashionable" to do the RIGHT thing?

Too many years of Trudeau, Liberal and NDP hogwash.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I know there is great mistrust of polling here on Army.ca.

I believe (and it is a well informed belief) that mistrust is ill founded.

The major polling firms in Canada are successful because they consistently provide a demonstrably fair and accurate assessment of what the public thinks about issues.

Almost all polling is privately commissioned – often by news media for later public release, as a service to gain/retain the loyalty of subscribers/readers/viewers/listeners. Sometimes firms conduct polls on issues of national import as their own public service – again with the aim of enhancing their reputation. Most polling work is wholly commercial in nature - designed to help marketing managers make smart decisions.

The very, very worst thing a polling for could do would be to conduct a poll, even when privately commissioned, that was aimed at a predetermined outcome. I have had some contact with poling forms over the years, in my second career and after that as a student, and I am here to say that the big firms do not situate the appreciation by any of the various techniques suspected by many, many Arm,y.ca members. The owners and managers of these firms are well paid; they live the good life; because they produce a consistently reliable product. They would fail, they would lose their jobs and income and cottages mansions in the Muskokas, if they did what so many think  they do. They don't do what so many accuse them of doing because they are not stupid people.

Polling data is more accurate at gross levels – when you poll 3,000 people across Canada you get an accuracy rating of about ±2.5% 19 times out of 20. But your poll of Ontario probably had only 1,250 respondents so its accuracy is lower – maybe about ±3.5% and so on down to PEI where, with only 150 respondents the accuracy is laughable. (I’m emphasizing ‘maybe’ and ‘about’ because I’m too lazy to go look up the real numbers but someone who took a Stats course in the last few years ought to have those numbers near at hand.) Polls, even large ones, are rarely more than about 95% accurate – but, given the relatively small samples, necessary to provide timely data, that’s a fair result.

You don’t have to like the poll results but you should be fairly confident that they are giving you an accurate reflection of public opinion. The polls should always contain details of the questions, methodology and sample size – and almost all polling firms almost always publish that data. The media are often less willing or able to devote column inches or TV time to telling you all about the poll. When you read a poll in the media you should always go to the polling firm's website where you will, 99% of the time, find the data you need to assess what was asked and how it was asked.

 

[The Bread Guy]

To (humbly) add to E.R.'s overview....

When I read these, I wonder....well have several questions;

Where are these polls conducted?

In this case, by phone:  "Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey."

Who conducts them? Not just a corporate name, but a name.

I'm guessing that one person doesn't do more than 1000 calls to get the approximately 1,000 responses needed - either staff members of the polling firm, or staff at a call centre such firms may hire, make the calls.

How is the question asked?

Based on my experience, pretty uniformly and monotonously, exactly as worded in the news release:
- Do you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose the government’s commitment to have troops in Afghanistan?
- Do you believe Canada should remove its troops early from Afghanistan, stay until the current end
date of 2011, or extend their mission in Afghanistan
- This past week, the Prime Minister announced that Canada would end its military mission in Afghanistan in 2011, and replace it with a civilian mission. Would you say you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose Canada taking this approach?
Also keep in mind that whoever pays for the poll has some input into the questions - based on VERY limited experience, there's a back-and-forth between the client, who says "here's the kind of stuff I want to canvass/find out about", and the polling company, who responds, "well, here's some wording that could draw that information."

Who pays for these polls?

In this case, it appears Canadian Press paid for the company to have the poll done - that's why CP gets to run the story.  Other media outlets use different companies the same way.

Finally, where have our values gone? Why is it "unfashionable" to do the RIGHT thing?

Sadly, right doesn't always equal popular.

I wish I had better answers for you, my friend....

You don’t have to like the poll results but you should be fairly confident that they are giving you an accurate reflection of public opinion. The polls should always contain details of the questions, methodology and sample size – and almost all polling firms almost always publish that data. The media are often less willing or able to devote column inches or TV time to telling you all about the poll. When you read a poll in the media you should always go to the polling firm's website where you will, 99% of the time, find the data you need to assess what was asked and how it was asked.

To add to this, ALL media stories should include at least how many people were surveyed and the plus/minus factor for accuracy - if a poll shows, say 52 and 49 per cent results for opposing positions, and the margin of error happens to be +/- 4%, that means any difference would have to be more than 4 % to be reasonably significant.  Plain language - you can't say "a slim majority support X with 52%" in the situation I gave because the difference is less than 4 points.  It would be more correct to say "opinion is split between X and Y".

 

[zipperhead_cop]

I am here to say that the big firms do not situate the appreciation by any of the various techniques suspected by many, many Arm,y.ca members.

I don't "suspect" misconduct (if that is what situate the appreciation actually means  ).  I KNOW that when I got called by Ipsos-Reid polling me on my opinion of the mission when I told them I strongly supported the mission (the second question after "Are you aware that Canada has soldiers in Afghanistan") I was promptly hung up on.  The subsequent poll that came out had significantly more questions associated to it.  As there are several other people who all report the same occurrence, my faith in the polls is low. 
I would also respectfully submit that someone who enjoys a quality lifestyle is not immune from political influence and greed.  I should think that is fairly clear from what we consistently see in the news. 
However, I still feel that if Canadians do not support the mission, it is largely due to the fact that the Army (I blame the Army) has failed to do a credible job of reporting our successes.  It would seem that it is almost too scary to admit that we have transitioned from fighting radical Islamic militants (which we are, but argueably it is just pissing in the wind) to nation building.  I would like to think that the Canadian public would still support the mission if its main purpose was more humanitarian in nature and was moving towards simply helping Joe and Jane Afghan get better lives. 

 

[Jungle]

I don't "suspect" misconduct (if that is what situate the appreciation actually means  ).  I KNOW that when I got called by Ipsos-Reid polling me on my opinion of the mission when I told them I strongly supported the mission (the second question after "Are you aware that Canada has soldiers in Afghanistan") I was promptly hung up on.

While it never happened to me, I know at least one individual who had the same thing happen to him; when he stated that he "strongly supported" the misssion, the pollster hung up...

 

[Hawk]

I worked for Ipsos-Reid. Their call floor is in downtown Winnipeg. The way the polls work is this. They ask you about your support for the Government's commitment to having the troops in Afghanistan: "a. strongly support, b. support, c. oppose, or d. strongly oppose". If they punch in an "a" or "b" answer, it automatically brings up "Those are all my questions. On behalf of Ipsos Reid and myself, I would like to thank you for participating in our poll today. Have a good evening. Good-bye." If they punch in a "c" or "d", the next question about the troops in Afghanistan, or the Government pops up, and the survey continues damning the Government, the Troops, or both. Been there, done that - night, after night, after night. The kids (mostly age 16 to 20) will keep calling on this till they get a good number of negative responses, usually a pre-determined amount. Thankfully, I wasn't there long, but long enough to realize what a scam public opinion polling is.

 

[George Wallace]

It is called a "Vocal Minority".

 

[Jungle]

It is called a "Vocal Minority".

Exactly... it's the old "squeeky wheel" principle...

 

[Edward Campbell]

I worked for Ipsos-Reid. Their call floor is in downtown Winnipeg. The way the polls work is this. They ask you about your support for the Government's commitment to having the troops in Afghanistan: "a. strongly support, b. support, c. oppose, or d. strongly oppose". If they punch in an "a" or "b" answer, it automatically brings up "Those are all my questions. On behalf of Ipsos Reid and myself, I would like to thank you for participating in our poll today. Have a good evening. Good-bye." If they punch in a "c" or "d", the next question about the troops in Afghanistan, or the Government pops up, and the survey continues damning the Government, the Troops, or both. Been there, done that - night, after night, after night. The kids (mostly age 16 to 20) will keep calling on this till they get a good number of negative responses, usually a pre-determined amount. Thankfully, I wasn't there long, but long enough to realize what a scam public opinion polling is.

And that would be just the sort of poll you would conduct is the question was "Who is to 'blame' for this mess?" There are two polls in one:

First: who "a. strongly supports, b. supports, c. opposes, or d. strongly opposes" the mission; and

Second: who is to 'blame?'

There is no point in asking those who strongly support or support the mission who is to blame. It would be a silly question. Those who support the mission do not 'blame' anyone.

 

[zipperhead_cop]

Sure, but you can still take snapshots of stats that can skew the results.  If the answers were screened out like you say, then you will have nobody that strongly supports the mission.  After the poll is done then you have all of the stats for the individual questions.  Whoever is paying for the poll gets all of the results, and then they can trot out "authentic" stats that show that Canadians don't support the mission "Just look at the numbers!  We polled X thousand people with a 2% degree of accuracy".  But the numbers are still bunk. 

 

[Hawk]

Absolutely! And that's the reason for the poll! Every time one of them phones me I automatically tell them to put me on their Do Not Call list. I have no time for them!

Hawk

 

[leroi]

Here's a December 3, 2009 poll by Angus Reid that's based on polling 1006 Canadians from all parts of the country.  It's important to critically analyze a pollsters methodology but I also think the good ones make no attempt to bias the results-IMHO! This polls sample size of respondents is small, so according to Mr. Campbell, it's more prone to inaccuracy? The poll claims support  for the mission is actually "up five points since October." (Disclaimer: stats are not my strong point.)

http://www.visioncritical.com/2009/12/canadians-reject-sending-more-soldiers-to-afghanistan/

As the U.S. and Britain get ready to send more troops to Afghanistan, two-thirds of Canadians believe that their own country’s military commitment should not be altered, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 Canadian adults, 66 per cent of respondents express opposition to Canada committing more soldiers to the war in Afghanistan, while only 28 per cent would consent to this idea.

The Mission

This month, 42 per cent of respondents (up five points since October) say they support the military operation involving Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan, while 53 per cent are opposed (down three points).

Support for the military mission is highest in Alberta (66%) and lowest in Quebec (32%).

Canadians are evenly divided on whether the country was right to send military forces to Afghanistan, with 40 per cent believing this was the correct decision, and 40 per cent claiming this was a mistake. Overall, three-in-five Canadians (61%) say they have a clear idea of what the war in Afghanistan is about.

When The War is Over

When asked about what they think will be the most likely outcome of the war in Afghanistan, seven per cent of Canadians expect a clear victory by U.S. and NATO forces over the Taliban, and 32 per cent foresee a negotiated settlement from a position of U.S. and NATO strength that gives the Taliban a small role in the Afghan government.

In addition, 16 per cent of respondents believe the Taliban will play a significant role in Afghanistan after the war is over, and a further 16 per cent believe U.S. and NATO forces will ultimately be defeated by the Taliban.

Obama’s Plan

Canadians are skeptical about the plan for Afghanistan outlined by U.S. President Barack Obama. Just over a third of respondents (37%) are very or moderately confident that the Obama Administration will be able “finish the job” in Afghanistan, while a majority (54%) are not too confident or not confident at all.

Analysis

While Canada was not mentioned as a possible source of additional soldiers, the population flatly rejects the possibility of an increase in the number of Canadian troops in Afghanistan. Following a month filled with intense discussions about Canada’s role, support for the mission actually increased by five points.

At this stage, Canadians are not entirely satisfied with the situation in Afghanistan, but would definitely be against any attempts to change course in the next two years. It is important to note that, despite his popularity in Canada, Obama’s plan for Afghanistan is not regarded as an ideal solution to the conflict.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
CONTACT:

Jodi Shanoff, Vice President, Public Affairs

 

[The Bread Guy]

Canadians Divided on Afghanistan Mission
Angus Reid Global Monitor, 24 Feb 10
News release link - Complete Survey also attached

Adults in Canada hold differing views on the mission in Afghanistan, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 47 per cent of respondents support the military operation involving Canadian soldiers, while 49 per cent oppose it.

In addition, 53 per cent of respondents think the federal government has provided too little information about the war in Afghanistan.

Since October 2009, the level of support for the mission has increased by 10 points.

Afghanistan has been the main battleground in the war on terrorism. The conflict began in October 2001, after the Taliban regime refused to hand over Osama bin Laden without evidence of his participation in the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Al-Qaeda operatives hijacked and crashed four airplanes on Sept. 11, 2001, killing nearly 3,000 people.

At least 1,639 soldiers—including 140 Canadians—have died in the war on terrorism, either in support of the U.S.-led Operation Enduring Freedom or as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper formed a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party.

In May 2006, the House of Commons extended Canada’s mission in Afghanistan until February 2009. In March 2008, the House of Commons voted 198-77 to prolong the military deployment until the end of 2011. The Conservative and Liberal parties supported the motion, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois opposed it. In September 2008, Harper assured that there would be no new extension of the mission.

Last month, Canadian foreign minister Lawrence Cannon discussed a controversial proposal tabled by Afghan president Hamid Karzai to offer jobs to "soft" Taliban fighters in exchange for their surrender, saying, "I want to be able to see how it works, how it reaches out, what are the parameters and that we don’t know yet. I want to be able to analyse, evaluate it and talk to my cabinet colleagues about it and then make a determination as to whether or not we will participate financially in this fund."
(....)

Methodology: Online interviews with 1,007 Canadian adults, conducted on Feb. 16 and Feb. 17, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

 

[OldSolduer]

47% in favor, 49% against?

A dead heat, media wise.

I agree with the 53%, the government hasn't done a good job on the info side.

 

[Journeyman]

Yes, but it also says that, "Since October 2009, the level of support for the mission has increased by 10 points," which is why this poll isn't a sensationalist headline in the Red Toronto Star

 

[The Bread Guy]

8 Apr 10, Ekos:

Mission in Afghanistan:
¤ 49% oppose
¤ 36% support
¤ 14% neither

Support for extending Canada’s role in Afghanistan:
¤ 60% oppose
¤ 28% support
¤ 12% neither

21 Apr 10 Angus Reid (pet peeve highlight mine):

- 39% (-8 since February) support the military operation involving Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan, 56% (+7) oppose it
- 51% think the media has provided the right amount of attention to Afghanistan
- 53% think the federal government has not provided enough information about Afghanistan

Both reports attached.