Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

[Remius]

Not really just an impression I've had for a while that I can always add a couple percentage points to the Conservative popular vote and usually a couple seats to what is projected.

This is 338's record so far

338Canada's record so far

338canada.com

Is it normally within the margin of error?

 

[MilEME09]

Now, very real possibility, people have warned of vote splitting, what if both the left and right split? What if we get 4 parties all in the 70 to 100 seat range? I doubt the PPC could get that much support but humor me

 

[Haggis]

Now, very real possibility, people have warned of vote splitting, what if both the left and right split? What if we get 4 parties all in the 70 to 100 seat range? I doubt the PPC could get that much support but humor me

Then you're looking at a Liberal-led coalition, which, IMO, would be worse than a weak Liberal majority.

 

[brihard]

Now, very real possibility, people have warned of vote splitting, what if both the left and right split? What if we get 4 parties all in the 70 to 100 seat range? I doubt the PPC could get that much support but humor me

PPC would be very lucky to get a single seat. Other than Beauce I don’t think any are in serious contention.

 

[MilEME09]

PPC would be very lucky to get a single seat. Other than Beauce I don’t think any are in serious contention.

I'd say they could pick up a seat or two in rural Prarie ridings, that's about it. But a strong BQ,Con, NDP showing could lead to a very weak minority situation

 

[brihard]

I'd say they could pick up a seat or two in rural Prarie ridings, that's about it. But a strong BQ,Con, NDP showing could lead to a very weak minority situation

Are there any where PPC are polling anywhere close to serious contention?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Could it also be because, sadly, veterans' affairs isn't a big issue on most Canadians' radar?

... the issue has been noticeably absent from this election campaign. None of the leaders have gone out of their way to court the community or highlight their party’s promises, while the issues that arose in 2015 and, to a lesser degree, 2019 have largely flown under the radar.

That is despite what Jim Scott, president of the Equitas Society, which spearheaded the lawsuit by the same name, says is continuing frustration over the fact there are now three separate systems offering different benefits to veterans with the same injuries.

(...)

Scott acknowledges a level of fatigue within the community as well, with many veterans tired of fighting what has to this point been a largely losing battle for the benefits, services and respect that were promised to them.

“Veterans have just moved on,” Scott said in an interview Thursday. “A lot of them just said: ‘You know, this is an unhealthy place for me to be, fighting the government. At the end of the day, I need to move on. Because I’m not getting any support.”‘

He said he is also concerned that with the war in Afghanistan increasingly disappearing into the rear-view mirror, Canadians don’t have as much of an attachment to the military and those who have served in uniform ...

 

[suffolkowner]

Is it normally within the margin of error?

I think they are, but biased in one direction as I tend to think it a sampling error where Conservative voters are less likely to partake in many of the surveys. This is just my opinion from casual observation of polls, predictions and results over the past few years.

 

[Remius]

So O’toole had a bad day yesterday. Dodging the Kenney question, fair enough, the media is latching to that. He’s pretty calm though. But cancelling an interview at this time doesn’t look good and will lead to more questions. I’m not sure but this may have an effect. Strangely, he latched onto Kenney but avoided Ford. Maybe should have stuck with Ford lol.

The campaign was going so well but he seems to limping towards the end. I hope he manages to stay on. But I suspect his party will want to dump him.

At the same time, Trudeau may be at risk of him being dumped, even if he wins.

We might have a whole new cast of characters next time.

 

[Quirky]

Could it also be because, sadly, veterans' affairs isn't a big issue on most Canadians' radar?

National Defence and Military isn't on the radar, they don't care and it's obvious. I haven't heard one mention of anything related to the CAF this election. The entire support our troops campaign (caring about modernising equipment, supporting our veterans etc) is just virtue signalling and cannon fodder.

We might have a whole new cast of characters next time.

This is the best possible outcome.

 

[Remius]

Poll using what each party should be called. Lol.

 

[Haggis]

We might have a whole new cast of characters next time.

This is the best possible outcome.

Be careful what you wish for. There are a few in the LPC who can easily out-Trudeau Trudeau when it comes to virtue signalling.

 

[brihard]

So O’toole had a bad day yesterday. Dodging the Kenney question, fair enough, the media is latching to that. He’s pretty calm though. But cancelling an interview at this time doesn’t look good and will lead to more questions. I’m not sure but this may have an effect. Strangely, he latched onto Kenney but avoided Ford. Maybe should have stuck with Ford lol.

The campaign was going so well but he seems to limping towards the end. I hope he manages to stay on. But I suspect his party will want to dump him.

At the same time, Trudeau may be at risk of him being dumped, even if he wins.

We might have a whole new cast of characters next time.

No kidding. O’Toole shit the bed trying to dodge the Kenney thing. That’s one where it would look a hell of a lot better if he rolled with the punch, and acknowledged that how things looked at one point changed to something else and that they absolutely have to be live to and responsive to those changes. Instead he got clowned for a whole presser. Bad look.

 

[Kilted]

Are there any where PPC are polling anywhere close to serious contention?

I think their biggest impact may be splitting the vote in a few close ridings resulting in them going Liberal/NDP. The majority of ridings that I have looked at where they are doing better (8-11%) are strong Conservative ridings that likely won't be affected.

 

[brihard]

I think their biggest impact may be splitting the vote in a few close ridings resulting in them going Liberal/NDP. The majority of ridings that I have looked at where they are doing better (8-11%) are strong Conservative ridings that likely won't be affected.

That’s what I figured, yeah. A lot of their ‘best’ ridings have precisely zero chance of anything but blue. The real key will be how many they serve as spoilers in. I’m curious how long they can stay relevant if they return zero seats again. I wonder if there’ll be a new and unlikely champion for proportional representation?

 

[The Bread Guy]

... I wonder if there’ll be a new and unlikely champion for proportional representation?

If the tiny-number-of-seat parties want a chance to get to the table, that may be their best option. You see it not infrequently in Italy or Israel having party x have to bring 1-2 folks from tiny (and even other side of the political spectrum) party y to stay in power.

Mind you, if you don't like elections, you're likely going to get more of them under prop-rep.

 

[Good2Golf]

... I wonder if there’ll be a new and unlikely champion for proportional representation?

Of course, Trudeau!

Oh wait….’Words, not Deeds’

…never mind…

 

[Remius]

I think their biggest impact may be splitting the vote in a few close ridings resulting in them going Liberal/NDP. The majority of ridings that I have looked at where they are doing better (8-11%) are strong Conservative ridings that likely won't be affected.

Agreed. I read an article saying that their biggest areas of influence will be in Ontario and NS.

 

[OldSolduer]

I'm not optimistic. I think as a nation we're done for.

The Big Three (US, UK and Australia have sidelined us) and that is our fault for failing to look past nice hair and sunny ways. His nibs admiration of Cuba and China will - have - bitten Canada in the ass and the wound is not pretty.

 

[brihard]

Agreed. I read an article saying that their biggest areas of influence will be in Ontario and NS.

Yup. While their greatest support is in the prairies, it overlaps the safest conservative seats. Ontario in particular seems to me to be where the LPC/CPC margins are most permissive of PPC spoilers in favour of Trudeau.

Go figure; Max is Trudeau’s star candidate, and he won’t even need to give him a seat in caucus.