Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

[Altair]

So Otoole is promising to give Unions a seat at corporate boards. And pass legislation to ensure pensions are protected before bonuses and creditors get their share if a company goes bankrupt.

i like that a lot.

The CPC is bordering on left of centre. I get that the LPC is worried but true dyed in the wool Conservatives must be wondering what the heck is going on. Maybe this why the PPC is seeing an uptick?

Looking at PPC boards online, and a LOT of pissed off CPC voters are showing up there.

Carbon tax, union appeasement, pro choice, the fringe of the CPC that scare off the moderates are not happy.

 

[dimsum]

I get that the LPC is worried but true dyed in the wool Conservatives must be wondering what the heck is going on.

Hell, I'm not a dyed-in-the-wool anything, and I'm scratching my head at the left-ish lean of the CPC platform.

 

[Altair]

Hell, I'm not a dyed-in-the-wool anything, and I'm scratching my head at the left-ish lean of the CPC platform.

Take a quick glance at the polls, and you have your answer.

The interesting part is if the CPC moves left, does the LPC move more left, and then the NDP move even more left leading to a a constant and ever more rapid attempt by the parties to outflank their opponents on the left?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Looking at PPC boards online, and a LOT of pissed off CPC voters are showing up there.

Carbon tax, union appeasement, pro choice, the fringe of the CPC that scare off the moderates are not happy.

First a quibble: "the fringe ... is not happy."

But that is precisely O'Toole's tactic. That fringe has nowhere to go and it knows it, and so does O'Toole ~ the PPC and the Christian Heritage Parties are electoral bad jokes and the fringe has damned few Libertarians in it ... if any. The aim is to woo the moderates, especially those in the suburbs in the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas; if they are bothered by the so-cons then it is good politics to make the so-cons unhappy and to make sure that everyone, especially the moderates, knows it.

 

[Kilted]

I have to say that I am a bit disappointed in O'Toole. As a True-Blue Social Conservative the PPC is starting to look good on some points. They do however, have no choice of winning, and will at best split the vote in a couple ridings. The best thing for both parties would be a merger, so that the PPC members can still pull the party to the right. I don't think that the Conservative Party as a whole supports many of these new measures, or at the least might see them as a necessary evil.

 

[Remius]

First a quibble: "the fringe ... is not happy."

But that is precisely O'Toole's tactic. That fringe has nowhere to go and it knows it, and so does O'Toole ~ the PPC and the Christian Heritage Parties are electoral bad jokes and the fringe has damned few Libertarians in it ... if any. The aim is to woo the moderates, especially those in the suburbs in the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas; if they are bothered by the so-cons then it is good politics to make the so-cons unhappy and to make sure that everyone, especially the moderates, knows it.

I agree. I think he sees more value in getting more moderates than try to appease the socons.

 

[Altair]

But that is precisely O'Toole's tactic. That fringe has nowhere to go and it knows it, and so does O'Toole ~ the PPC and the Christian Heritage Parties are electoral bad jokes and the fringe has damned few Libertarians in it ... if any. The aim is to woo the moderates, especially those in the suburbs in the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas; if they are bothered by the so-cons then it is good politics to make the so-cons unhappy and to make sure that everyone, especially the moderates, knows it.

It's a brave strategy, I give him credit for that.

Because O'Toole used the so-cons to win the leadership over the more moderate Mackay, and now he's abandoning them in order to win the election. If he wins, he's good, nobody is going to boot the guy that beat Justin Trudeau, if he gets the CPC closer, he's good. But if he fails to keep the LPC to a minority or the seat count is relatively unchanged after all is said and done, I think he faces a revolt from the membership.

 

[Remius]

I think a CPC minority would be problematic internally for Otoole. The elected socons would flex what muscle they have to get their agenda pushed forward and would be willing to torpedo a minority government or at least threaten to unless they get what they want. A strong minority might be doable but then they’d have to work with the Bloc and NDP. Lol. Strange times.

 

[Good2Golf]

I have to say that I am a bit disappointed in O'Toole. As a True-Blue Social Conservative the PPC is starting to look good on some points. They do however, have no choice of winning, and will at best split the vote in a couple ridings. The best thing for both parties would be a merger, so that the PPC members can still pull the party to the right. I don't think that the Conservative Party as a whole supports many of these new measures, or at the least might see them as a necessary evil.

By ‘disappointed’ do you mean ‘closing the gap with the Liberals’?

 

[Remius]

By ‘disappointed’ do you mean ‘closing the gap with the Liberals’?

It is possible that there are some voters that actually vote based on the values and platform a party has and not just mindlessly vote the same over and over because either they hate the other side so much or will be a card carrying member regardless of leader or what they have to offer.

 

[Good2Golf]

It is possible that there are some voters that actually vote based on the values and platform a party has and not just mindlessly vote the same over and over because either they hate the other side so much or will be a card carrying member regardless of leader or what they have to offer.

Agree, hence why it seems that the CPC is not for Kilted.

 

[brihard]

Agree, hence why it seems that the CPC is not for Kilted.

They’re probably figuring that every one of him they court comes at the cost of three or four of me- centrists disgusted with the LPC.

 

[Remius]

They’re probably figuring that every one of him they court comes at the cost of three or four of me- centrists disgusted with the LPC.

Exactly.

 

[Edward Campbell]

They’re probably figuring that every one of him they court comes at the cost of three or four of me- centrists disgusted with the LPC.

Exactly! Canada is NOT a "conservative" place. (It's not very liberal ~ in the proper sense of that word ~ either. It leans towards the European "social-democratic" (i.e. soft left) position). My guess is that nearly 70% of Canadians could fit under the "moderate" umbrella ~ the middle of the bell curve ~ while less than 5% are real, dyed-in-the-wool social conservatives. I'm sure Erin O'Toole will happily disregard the <5% for the >65%.

 

[QV]

So Otoole is promising to give Unions a seat at corporate boards. And pass legislation to ensure pensions are protected before bonuses and creditors get their share if a company goes bankrupt.

i like that a lot.

The CPC is bordering on left of centre. I get that the LPC is worried but true dyed in the wool Conservatives must be wondering what the heck is going on. Maybe this why the PPC is seeing an uptick?

I’d guess PPC uptick is directly related to the pandemic measures for now.

If the CPC can hold the centre then a relevant PPC makes sense. The PPC‘s platform does look attractive and I’m surprised more people here aren’t swaying that way.

 

[Kilted]

Agree, hence why it seems that the CPC is not for Kilted.

I'll tow the party line, I don't have to agree with everything. I'm sure that it will all come around again.

 

[Good2Golf]

I'll tow the party line, I don't have to agree with everything. I'm sure that it will all come around again.

There are some who think it’s as far right as it’ll go, otherwise it’ll fracture back into Reform and PC.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Disagree. Building new homes is supply side, prices down.

All of the "money for supply" has to pass through government filters at two levels (fed, prov), and three if municipalities are involved (and they will be). That means beak-wetting, so the cost per house goes up due to that friction.

 

[brihard]

Exactly! Canada is NOT a "conservative" place. (It's not very liberal ~ in the proper sense of that word ~ either. It leans towards the European "social-democratic" (i.e. soft left) position). My guess is that nearly 70% of Canadians could fit under the "moderate" umbrella ~ the middle of the bell curve ~ while less than 5% are real, dyed-in-the-wool social conservatives. I'm sure Erin O'Toole will happily disregard the <5% for the >65%.

View attachment 66178

Huh. I never thought about it from a normal distribution standpoint, but standard deviations can fit some of our political dynamics almost uncannily well. It’s a nice visualization of the respective merits of fighting over the centre versus fighting over the flanks. You can situate both Green and PPC towards the wings, fighting for relevance. NDP solidly occupy a ‘mid blue’ on the left, and LPC have found success in dislodging CPC from the centre and pushing them to a diminishing rate or returns farther out. O’Toole is trying to reverse that- which will open up a bit of a vacuum in that much smaller, but still present chunk on the right. That’s the turf that PPC and maybe the Mavericks will fight over.

 

[Altair]

They’re probably figuring that every one of him they court comes at the cost of three or four of me- centrists disgusted with the LPC

O'Toole had better win, because so-cons won't fall for the bait and switch candidate next time.

I see them going hard for a Leslie or Sloan like figure next time, someone who's social conservatives views go back a long way and are not their simply to curry their favor.