Canada-US Trade Relations

[Brad Sallows]

The USMCA may be "dead", but it's sure taking its time dying.

 

[brihard]

Looks like Trump's trade war is back on. The US is putting a 10% tariff on our aluminum, and Canada will be retaliating 'dollar for dollar'.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadian-press-newsalert-trump-slaps-tariffs-on-canadian-raw-aluminum

Once again, Trump supporters in Canada will find themselves awkwardly having to choose between supporting the US president, and supporting the Canadian industrial sector that he's attacking. It will be disingenuous for anyone to claim to do both.

This further highlights the inherently transactional nature of Trump's foreign policy.

 

[Weinie]

Not unsurprising, in a neck to neck election run-up (if you believe the polls) to see POTUS pandering to his base. If he is re-elected in November, he can always roll them back, if he loses, it becomes Joe Biden's and the Dems problem. Win/not lose.

 

[Rifleman62]

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/aluminum-facts/20510

In nature, aluminum does not exist in a pure state. The production of primary aluminum metal begins with bauxite ore, which is composed of hydrated aluminum oxide (40% to 60%) mixed with silica and iron oxide.

It takes approximately 4 to 5 tonnes of bauxite ore to produce 2 tonnes of alumina. In turn, it takes approximately 2 tonnes of alumina to produce 1 tonne of aluminum.

There are 10 primary aluminum smelters in Canada: one is located in Kitimat, British Columbia, and the other nine are in Quebec. There is also one alumina refinery, located in Saguenay, Quebec.

No bauxite is mined in Canada.

China is a large exporter of bauxite: Exporters - Rank Country Bauxite Production (in thousand tonnes), 2014
1 Australia 81,000
2 China 47,000
3 Brazil 32,500
4 Guinea      19,300

 

[FJAG]

Not unsurprising, in a neck to neck election run-up (if you believe the polls) to see POTUS pandering to his base. If he is re-elected in November, he can always roll them back, if he loses, it becomes Joe Biden's and the Dems problem. Win/not lose.

But this increases the price of his base's beer cans.  ;D

China is a large exporter of bauxite: Exporters - Rank Country Bauxite Production (in thousand tonnes), 2014
1 Australia 81,000
2 China 47,000
3 Brazil 32,500
4 Guinea      19,300

Bauxite mining in the United States produced an estimated 128,000 metric tonnes of bauxite in 2013.[1] Although the United States was an important source of bauxite in the early 20th century, it now supplies less than one percent of world bauxite production.

Bauxite is the only commercial ore of aluminium, and 96 percent of bauxite consumed in the US is used to produce aluminum (metallurgical grade).[2] However, since 1981, none of the bauxite mined in the US was used to make metallic aluminium. US bauxite is instead used for abrasives, high-temperature refractory materials, and as a high-strength proppant for hydraulic fracturing of oil and gas wells.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bauxite_mining_in_the_United_States

The US also imported 33 percent of the aluminum metal that was used in 2014. Of the imported aluminum, 63% came from Canada ...

The US used to be a much more important factor in the world primary aluminum market. As recently as 1981, the US produced 30% of the world's primary aluminum, and for many years up through 2000, the US was the world's largest producer of primary aluminum. In 2014, by contrast, the US ranked sixth in primary aluminum production, and provided only 3.5% of world production.

US production of primary aluminum peaked in 1980 at 4.64 million metric tons. Since then, US primary aluminum production has fallen by more than half, but secondary production has increased, making up much of the difference. In the 1950s and 1960s, primary production made up about 80% of the aluminum output. In 2014, primary production made up 32%, while secondary from new scrap made up 36% and secondary from old scrap made up 32% of US aluminum production.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminum_industry_in_the_United_States

One of the most significant costs in producing aluminum is electricity and Quebec has a major advantage there with the long term hydro contracts it established with Newfoundland and Labrador through Churchill Falls which will continue until 2041 at the fixed rates negotiated some 55 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill_Falls_Generating_Station

It's not really dumping per se. Just a really great economic input costs advantage that Quebec has.

:cheers:

 

[Infanteer]

Trump supporters in Canada will find themselves awkwardly having to choose between supporting the US president, and supporting the Canadian industrial sector that he's attacking. It will be disingenuous for anyone to claim to do both.

But Obama was bad, and Hillary was worse!

 

[Kat Stevens]

Just wondering when the last time a politician didn’t pander to their base was. Hmmm... nope, I got nothing.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Just wondering when the last time a politician didn’t pander to their base was. Hmmm... nope, I got nothing.

I bet you the LPC manipulated Trump into doing these tariffs to take Canadians attention off the WE conflict of interest and corruption.

 

[Weinie]

Just wondering when the last time a politician didn%u2019t pander to their base was. Hmmm... nope, I got nothing.

How about when the current gov't announced the CERB, and then extended it twice. Hit across all political spectrums. I digress.

Hopefully, we are still talking Canada/US trade relations.

Canada, Europe, the ME, SA, China, and Russia are all (minor) pieces in the run up to the election. There will be proclamations.

The implications for Canada are minimal.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

One of the most significant costs in producing aluminum is electricity and Quebec has a major advantage there with the long term hydro contracts it established with Newfoundland and Labrador through Churchill Falls which will continue until 2041 at the fixed rates negotiated some 55 years ago.

:cheers:

Actually, FJAG, while the Churchill Falls contract turned out (it wasn't planned that way as no one expected the economics of electricity to turn so lopsided when it was negotiated) to be a great deal for Quebec and Churchill Falls power plant is the second largest one in Hydro-Quebec's inventory, it is still just a small part of the Quebec Hydro-power advantage.

Hydro-Quebec can generate a bit over 46,000 MW of power, of which about 5500 are from Churchill, leaving a bit more than 40,000 from the other Quebec Hydro Dam. So Churchill is important but is only about 12% of the overall production. See: https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/nrgsstmprfls/qc-eng.html

And that production of Quebec does not include non Hydro-Quebec generation - and around the Saguenay area, there is still lots of private generation. The City of Saguenay itself generates 18 MW independently of Hydro-Quebec ( https://promotion.saguenay.ca/en/choose-saguenay/nos-secteurs-cles/energy ).

In fact, Aluminium smelting in the Saguenay region goes back almost to the turn of the 20th century specifically because local hydro power generation was so cheap and easily harnessed there. It predates the construction of Churchill falls by more than 50 years. Here's an extract of the story of  Alcoa, at Arvida: https://www.citedelaluminium.ca/en/aluminumplant/ , but remember that Alcan (now Rio-Tinto) was in Saguenay even before and actually operates its own power plant (Shipshaw), which they updated again only few years back ( https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/rio-tinto-alcan-inaugurates-the-completion-of-the-shipshaw-powerhouse-project-in-saguenay-quebec-511171501.html ).

So the hydro-power advantage of Quebec is a whole lot more than just Churchill Falls.

 

[FJAG]

...
So the hydro-power advantage of Quebec is a whole lot more than just Churchill Falls.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Actually, FJAG, while the Churchill Falls contract turned out (it wasn't planned that way as no one expected the economics of electricity to turn so lopsided when it was negotiated) to be a great deal for Quebec and Churchill Falls power plant is the second largest one in Hydro-Quebec's inventory, it is still just a small part of the Quebec Hydro-power advantage.

Hydro-Quebec can generate a bit over 46,000 MW of power, of which about 5500 are from Churchill, leaving a bit more than 40,000 from the other Quebec Hydro Dam. So Churchill is important but is only about 12% of the overall production. See: https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/nrgsstmprfls/qc-eng.html

And that production of Quebec does not include non Hydro-Quebec generation - and around the Saguenay area, there is still lots of private generation. The City of Saguenay itself generates 18 MW independently of Hydro-Quebec ( https://promotion.saguenay.ca/en/choose-saguenay/nos-secteurs-cles/energy ).

In fact, Aluminium smelting in the Saguenay region goes back almost to the turn of the 20th century specifically because local hydro power generation was so cheap and easily harnessed there. It predates the construction of Churchill falls by more than 50 years. Here's an extract of the story of  Alcoa, at Arvida: https://www.citedelaluminium.ca/en/aluminumplant/ , but remember that Alcan (now Rio-Tinto) was in Saguenay even before and actually operates its own power plant (Shipshaw), which they updated again only few years back ( https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/rio-tinto-alcan-inaugurates-the-completion-of-the-shipshaw-powerhouse-project-in-saguenay-quebec-511171501.html ).

So the hydro-power advantage of Quebec is a whole lot more than just Churchill Falls.

Indeed, HQ doesn't even need Churchill Falls.  The La Grande River Hydro Complex is super impressive.  I have visited The Robert Bourassa Generating Station and it alone makes enough electricity to power the entire Island of Montreal.  Hydro Quebec has 10 other dams on that River alone and sells most of their electricity to New England and now Ontario, who due to very poor investments and failure to upgrade facilities, now have to buy electricity from Quebec at a considerable markup.

 

[FJAG]

Indeed, HQ doesn't even need Churchill Falls.  The La Grande River Hydro Complex is super impressive.  I have visited The Robert Bourassa Generating Station and it alone makes enough electricity to power the entire Island of Montreal.  Hydro Quebec has 10 other dams on that River alone and sells most of their electricity to New England and now Ontario, who due to very poor investments and failure to upgrade facilities, now have to buy electricity from Quebec at a considerable markup.

And when it overproduces hydro, it sells it at a loss to New York, especially very expensive wind turbine energy at a loss.  Thank you Wynne and the Liberals. :facepalm:

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-lost-up-to-1-2-billion-selling-clean-energy-at-a-loss-engineers

And to think, Ontario grew as the industrial power base of Canada in the middle of the last century primarily because of its cheap and abundant hydro power supply.

:cheers:

 

[Good2Golf]

...And to think, Ontario grew as the industrial power base of Canada in the middle of the last century primarily because of its cheap and abundant hydro power supply.

:cheers:

...and (at the time) well-managed nuclear power production capacity. 

 

[lenaitch]

The problem Ontario had was its 'cheap and abundant' hydro power, particularly Niagara - closest to the industrial/population centre,  was tapped out fairly early on.  The development costs for nuclear scared, and scares, the pants off government, coupled with the numerous lobby groups and the unanswered questions of waste disposal.

Ontario doesn't have the topography in the north that Quebec does, nor the massive prairie-draining rivers of Manitoba, to generate much more than it already does.

 

[tomahawk6]

Americans stay home is the message. Even cars with US cars are vandalized. Not very welcoming.  ;D

https://news.yahoo.com/canada-u-visitors-please-dont-140830170.html

 

[Kat Stevens]

If it’s any consolation to you, the new favourite sport in the interior of BC is vandalizing vehicles with Alberta tags.

 

[tomahawk6]

If it’s any consolation to you, the new favourite sport in the interior of BC is vandalizing vehicles with Alberta tags.

:rofl:

 

[Retired AF Guy]

The problem Ontario had was its 'cheap and abundant' hydro power, particularly Niagara - closest to the industrial/population centre,  was tapped out fairly early on.  The development costs for nuclear scared, and scares, the pants off government, coupled with the numerous lobby groups and the unanswered questions of waste disposal.

Ontario doesn't have the topography in the north that Quebec does, nor the massive prairie-draining rivers of Manitoba, to generate much more than it already does.

Which may be why Ontario, joined with Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and now Albertato investigate the use of Small Modular (Nuclear) Reactors for future energy needs.

 

[Good2Golf]

:nod:  SMRs will figure heavily in the future of power production.