CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Brad Sallows]

I do not intend to march to the sound of the guns of August trade.

Bad policies are bad policies irrespective of who enacts them.

Don't impose tariffs. Don't buy goods and services at higher prices than you have to. Don't restrict international trade flows. Don't restrict intra-national trade flows.

"We're going to invest in all this stuff we refused to invest in before" is just a roundabout way of saying "We were wrong". The architects of deliberate past mistakes are probably not the best people be in charge moving forward. They still have their ideological priors to serve.

 

[Kilted]

So Trump won't even speak to Trudeau at this point.

 

[Brad Sallows]

One thing with liquor is it’s highly substitutable for Canadian consumers. We can hit it hard to apply pressure to specific U.S. constituencies, and Canadian consumers can buy other products with no real detrimental impact to ourselves.

Right, and after US bourbon producers establish relationships in new markets elsewhere, don't expect them to answer the phone when ON and BC come calling asking to be forgiven - especially when BC (Eby) is making it political/personal by directing attention to "red" states. More than one brand of liquor I used to enjoy became only sporadically available locally when Asian markets started outbidding us; expect more of that.

 

[brihard]

Right, and after US bourbon producers establish relationships in new markets elsewhere, don't expect them to answer the phone when ON and BC come calling asking to be forgiven - especially when BC (Eby) is making it political/personal by directing attention to "red" states. More than one brand of liquor I used to enjoy became only sporadically available locally when Asian markets started outbidding us; expect more of that.

I’m not personally concerned about that. There’s probably no better example of a purely discretionary consumer product from the U.S. that can be hit with retaliatory tariffs to apply political pressure without tangibly harming Canadians. The grumbling of liquor connoisseurs can yield to larger national interests.

Rolling over for Trump and showing weakness would simply embolden him to continue his push for what I’m increasingly convinced is a desire to ultimately absorb Canada. He is a robber baron.

 

[YZT580]

The noteworthy point is simply the scale of purchasing power and that it dances to a governmental tune.

See my previous:



One thing with liquor is it’s highly substitutable for Canadian consumers. We can hit it hard to apply pressure to specific U.S. constituencies, and Canadian consumers can buy other products with no real detrimental impact to ourselves.

bull Single malt cannot be substituted

 

[Good2Golf]

bull Single malt cannot be substituted

American ‘single malt?’

I don’t mind bourbon, but it isn’t Scotch…

 

[QV]

Rolling over for Trump and showing weakness would simply embolden him to continue his push for what I’m increasingly convinced is a desire to ultimately absorb Canada. He is a robber baron.

Canada is putting up more of a fight against the US than it has China.

 

[brihard]

bull Single malt cannot be substituted

One of several good reasons not to pick fights with Scotland.

 

[JLB50]

So Trump won't even speak to Trudeau at this point.

No, the only world leader he really speaks to and listens to is Vlad Putin.

 

[daftandbarmy]

So Trump won't even speak to Trudeau at this point.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Care to elaborate on what part of that was ironic?

Trudeau is clearly no fan of the CAF, yet he invoked great battlefield victories by Canada in his speech to gain sympathy from the USA.

Profoundly ironic, in many ways.

 

[YZT580]

American ‘single malt?’

I don’t mind bourbon, but it isn’t Scotch…

sorry, I thought that Scotch and single malt were synonymous.

 

[JLB50]

Trudeau is clearly no fan of the CAF, yet he invoked great battlefield victories by Canada in his speech to gain sympathy from the USA.

Profoundly ironic, in many ways.

He may have done a lot of damage to the country over the years but this time, at least, he did us proud. I’ll give him that.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I’m not personally concerned about that. There’s probably no better example of a purely discretionary consumer product from the U.S. that can be hit with retaliatory tariffs to apply political pressure without tangibly harming Canadians. The grumbling of liquor connoisseurs can yield to larger national interests.

Rolling over for Trump and showing weakness would simply embolden him to continue his push for what I’m increasingly convinced is a desire to ultimately absorb Canada. He is a robber baron.

Hitting liquor products is fly-swatting. If the liquor producers can easily find alternate markets, there isn't going to be any resulting political pressure that matters. Liquor producers aren't committed to expensive infrastructure. All they need is willing buyers and some sea-cans. This is a seen-to-be-doing-something, meat-for-the-masses ("we're hitting Red States!") futile gesture dreamed up by people with small imaginations and no strategic economic acumen.

 

[FJAG]

Canada is putting up more of a fight against the US than it has China.

And this surprises you? From the Liberals?

 

[Good2Golf]

sorry, I thought that Scotch and single malt were synonymous.

Single malts are Scotch. but not all Scotches are single-malts. Bourbon is just American whisky.

 

[Blackadder1916]

sorry, I thought that Scotch and single malt were synonymous.

They're just the best at it. Though you can find malted barley based whisky (single and blended) from other countries.



And just in time for this discussion, the Americans (officially) enter the competition for "sophisticated" whisky drinkers.

American Single Malt Is Finally An Official Whiskey Category

After several years of deliberations, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) has issued its final rule establishing a new American Single Malt Whiskey cate...

www.forbes.com

Key provisions of the American Single Malt Whiskey Standard include:

(1) fermented mash of 100% malted barley produced in the United States; (Note that the barley doesn’t need to be produced in the US, just the mashing and subsequent production)

(2) distillation proof of 160 or less, distilled at the same distillery in the United States;

(3) stored in used, charred new, or uncharred new oak barrels with a 700-liter maximum capacity and only stored in the United States;

(4) no neutral spirits permitted; and

(5) no allowable coloring, flavoring, or blending materials are permitted except for caramel coloring disclosed on the label.

The final rule also adopted a standard for the Straight American Single Malt Whiskey, requiring that it be aged for a minimum of 2 years. The final rule is scheduled to be published in the Federal Register on Wednesday, Dec. 18, and the effective date is Jan. 19, 2025.

 

[FJAG]

Single malts are Scotch. but not all Scotches are single-malts. Bourbon is just American whisky.

Made from corn at that.

 

[RangerRay]

Response from Pierre Poilievre.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1885819065710829892

 

[Fabius]

Some random thoughts;
Let’s make a few assumptions.

1. Canada will try to use diplomacy and targeted import tariffs to create US domestic pressure to lift the tariffs.
2.Canada won’t succeed in convincing the Trump administration to lift its tariffs.
3. The tariffs will continue as is for a minimum of four years

Given those assumptions what does Canada need to start doing now to ensure that the Canadian economy is best positioned to withstand and grow?

How do we best encourage businesses, that could relocate to avoid tariffs, to stay in Canada?

What does the Cdn federal government need to do fiscally to avoid an even larger deficit given a probable decrease in tax revenue in the next 1-4 years?