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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

I'm pretty sure our Conservative government will move to expel, cut ties and quit making deals with China rather than move under their umbrella. If we become a lapdog of Bejing, on purpose, I and I would imagine a large portion of this country, will be outta here.

It's a typical Canadian solution though. Worry so much about becoming the 51st state that we run to and become a province of China. I can think of no better way to cut off our nose to spite our face. Our resources would be plundered and gone within a decade.
 
I think this is the document that was referenced in the Brian Lilley podcast by Ian Lee of Carleton.


As @Good2Golf says - its business.

This article is interesting in that explicitly links trade policy, tariffs and currency manipulation.

Which leads to speculation about the Federal Reserve and its independence

Sep 26 2024

Nov 7 2024

Nov 18 2024

Jan 2 2025

And it throws some interesting light on this Wall Street Journal article from

Jan 26 2025

Scott Bessent Can Walk the Trade Tightrope​

Take a page from the playbook of Reagan and Treasury Secretary James Baker, who managed to douse the ‘prairie fire’ of protectionism.


Mr. Bessent recalled the experience of Treasury Secretary James Baker’s Plaza Accord and Group of Seven coordination in 1985-87. The episode serves as both a lesson and a cautionary tale. It’s a smart place for Mr. Bessent to start.

The Plaza Accord encouraged the dollar to decline in relation to other currencies, especially Japan’s and West Germany’s. Mr. Baker used the accord to fight off calls for protectionism, which had surged because an overvalued dollar was driving U.S. trade deficits. As Congress demanded higher general tariffs, Mr. Baker conceded, “There’s a prairie fire burning out there.” He needed to damp it and point toward a positive direction.

The day after the announcement of the Plaza Accord in September 1985, the White House released its Trade Policy Action Plan. The Reagan administration sought congressional authorization to negotiate a new global trade round and a free-trade agreement with Canada. Mr. Baker’s strategy, including the reduction of the trade deficit through exchange rates, produced the 1988 Trade Act, the successful Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and a pact with Canada that was a precursor to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

....

Tariffs coordinated with currency valuation - and the independence of the Fed.

But

Currency valuation is slow and communal, not entirely within the control of the Fed or any central bank let alone politicians - Ask Liz Truss.

So


Trump orders crypto working group to draft new regulations, explore national stockpile​

By Hannah Lang and Trevor Hunnicutt
January 23, 202511:24 PM MST Updated 4 days ago

  • Action orders working group to start work on crypto regulations
  • Also orders banking services for crypto companies be protected
  • Order bans creation of US central bank digital currencies
  • Trump had courted crypto cash during presidential campaign
Jan 23 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday ordered the creation of a cryptocurrency working group tasked with proposing new digital asset regulations and exploring the creation of a national cryptocurrency stockpile, making good on his promise to quickly overhaul U.S. crypto policy.

The much-anticipated action also ordered that banking services for crypto companies be protected, alluding to industry claims that U.S. regulators have directed lenders to cut crypto companies off from banking services - something regulators deny. The order also banned the creation of central bank digital currencies in the U.S. which could compete with existing cryptocurrencies.

In another key action pushed for by the crypto industry, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission late on Thursday rescinded accounting guidance that had made it very expensive for some listed companies to safeguard crypto assets on behalf of third parties. The crypto industry said that guidance had stymied digital asset adoption.
On the campaign trail, Trump courted crypto cash by pledging to be a "crypto president" and promote the adoption of digital assets. That is in stark contrast to former President Joe Biden's regulators which, in a bid to protect Americans from fraud and money laundering, cracked down on the industry, suing exchanges Coinbase, Binance and dozens more, alleging they were flouting U.S. laws. The companies deny the allegations.

Thursday's order was cheered by the crypto industry, which had been pushing for the new administration to send a strong signal of support in Trump's first few days in office.

"Today’s crypto executive order marks a sea change in U.S. digital asset policy," said Nathan McCauley, CEO and co-founder of crypto company Anchorage Digital.

"By taking a whole-of-government approach to crypto, the Administration is making a significant first step toward writing clear, consistent rules of the road."

If implemented by the relevant regulators, Trump's order has the potential to push cryptocurrencies into the mainstream, regulatory and crypto experts said. It follows Tuesday's SEC announcement that it was creating a taskforce to overhaul crypto policy.
Bitcoin hit a fresh record high of $109,071 on Monday amid investor excitement over the new crypto-friendly administration, although it was down to about $103,000 as of late Thursday afternoon.

"Just days into his administration, President Trump is delivering on his promises... to keep the United States a leader in digital assets innovation," Senator Tim Scott, the Republican chair of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement.

The industry has for years argued existing U.S. regulations are inappropriate for cryptocurrencies and have called for Congress and regulators to write new ones clarifying when a crypto token is a security, commodity or falls into another category.

The working group, which will include the Treasury secretary, chairs of the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, along with other agency heads, is tasked with developing a regulatory framework for digital assets, according to the order. That includes stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency typically pegged to the U.S. dollar.

The group is also set to "evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile... potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts."

The order did not provide further details on how such a stockpile would be set up and analysts and legal experts are divided on whether an act of Congress will be necessary. Some have argued the reserve could be created via the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund, which can be used to purchase or sell foreign currencies, and to also hold bitcoin.

In December, Trump named venture capitalist and former PayPal (PYPL.O), opens new tab executive David Sacks as the crypto and artificial intelligence czar. He will chair the group, the order said.

Market reaction

Crypto markets steady after Trump's first policy move​

By Tom Westbrook and Elizabeth Howcroft
January 24, 202510:40 AM MST


  • Bitcoin steadies after initial Trump-driven surge
  • $TRUMP token faces scrutiny over potential conflicts of interest
  • Trump says his children will manage his assets
  • Executive order protects banking services for crypto companies
  • Bans the development of a U.S. central bank digital currency

...

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Generally speaking, IMO, Conservative finance ministers have pursued a strong Canadian dollar while Liberal finance ministers have pursued a weak Canadian dollar.

A strong dollar acts to make it easier for Canadians to import goods and services, encouraging investment. A weak dollar acts, like a tariff, to make it harder to import but makes exports more attractive to foreign buyers. The weak dollar tends to support Canadian jobs, jobs, jobs.

A strong Mulroney dollar and a relatively weaker Reagan dollar would have made it easier for Canada to invest in, for example, defence.
Harper too was pursuing a strong dollar policy, and concurrently building up gold reserves which could have acted as a hedge against future fluctuations. My belief is that that was factored into the intention to spend a lot of money on new Fighters and Ships.
 
I'm pretty sure our Conservative government will move to expel, cut ties and quit making deals with China rather than move under their umbrella. If we become a lapdog of Bejing, on purpose, I and I would imagine a large portion of this country, will be outta here.

It's a typical Canadian solution though. Worry so much about becoming the 51st state that we run to and become a province of China. I can think of no better way to cut off our nose to spite our face. Our resources would be plundered and gone within a decade.

How close to China do you reckon we could come before we provoke an equal and opposite reaction from our neighbours?

Finland's solution, when confronted with that problem, was to enrol everybody in the army and declare neutrality.
 
I'm pretty sure our Conservative government will move to expel, cut ties and quit making deals with China rather than move under their umbrella. If we become a lapdog of Bejing, on purpose, I and I would imagine a large portion of this country, will be outta here.

It's a typical Canadian solution though. Worry so much about becoming the 51st state that we run to and become a province of China. I can think of no better way to cut off our nose to spite our face. Our resources would be plundered and gone within a decade.
Canada’s in a better position to stand up for ourselves on that. We have lots of stuff other people want. China and the U.S. are natural consumers of our resources and goods. We can sell the products without selling the companies, mineral rights, or intellectual property… If we’re wise enough to do that. We have been getting better at applying the Investment Canada Act and doing national security reviews of foreign acquisitions of our companies.

A lot of developing world countries aren’t in our same fortunate position and basically need a benefactor. China plays a very good long game in its foreign direct investment. Very likely they see a lot of opportunity opening up here.
 
I'm pretty sure our Conservative government will move to expel, cut ties and quit making deals with China rather than move under their umbrella. If we become a lapdog of Bejing, on purpose, I and I would imagine a large portion of this country, will be outta here.

It's a typical Canadian solution though. Worry so much about becoming the 51st state that we run to and become a province of China. I can think of no better way to cut off our nose to spite our face. Our resources would be plundered and gone within a decade.
Canada could and should be doing a lot more to forge ties with other countries…Britain, Japan, etc.
 
... Possibly he wants us to become a stronger nation. Kind or a tough love sorta thing ...
Well, I can't read his mind or heart, but I can read his words about offering to eliminate tariffs if Canada becomes the 51st state. Yeah, as a real estate/entertainment-developed guy, I get he gusts to exaggeration, but I haven't seen/heard anything suggesting he loves Canada so much that the beating hurts him more than it hurts us. Happy to see/read/hear evidence to the contrary, though.

As some have agreed upthread, in POTUS47's eyes, tariffs = $ in the bank for tax cuts/whatever he wants to do with it (with Canada/Mexico as a handy blame target for Americans who'll suffer under tariffs), so my guess is to watch for moving targets. I'd love to be wrong.
 
How close to China do you reckon we could come before we provoke an equal and opposite reaction from our neighbours?

Finland's solution, when confronted with that problem, was to enrol everybody in the army and declare neutrality.

I'm not sure where they would draw the line, but there's no way in hell they would allow them to operate to China's satisfaction in Canada. As soon as they see us as a vassal state of China, the world is in trouble.
 
Well, I can't read his mind or heart, but I can read his words about offering to eliminate tariffs if Canada becomes the 51st state. Yeah, as a real estate/entertainment-developed guy, I get he gusts to exaggeration, but I haven't seen/heard anything suggesting he loves Canada so much that the beating hurts him more than it hurts us. Happy to see/read/hear evidence to the contrary, though.

As some have agreed upthread, in POTUS47's eyes, tariffs = $ in the bank for tax cuts/whatever he wants to do with it (with Canada/Mexico as a handy blame target for Americans who'll suffer under tariffs), so my guess is to watch for moving targets. I'd love to be wrong.

I'm no international financier. I go with my gut and what I've witnessed over 70+ years on the planet. Think of me as the guy in the bar with a ball cap and dirt under my fingernails, that your having a casual conversation with over a beer. During my military time, I've had Canadian Professional Sales Association training and been responsible for one project of over $1 million, I was NPF manager for the BG in Bosnia responsible for stock and sales of over $1.5 million and directed and oversaw all CIMIC projects done on Athena Roto 0 to the tune of well over $2 million. That's the extent of my financial and sales experience. It doesn't make me an expert in international trade. It does give me some small insight into Trumps sales strategy.

I'll leave the numbers and minutiae to the experts here to argue the finer points.
 

This little gem comes from Trump’s own White House back in 2020 following the replacement of NAFTA with the USMCA treaty which he had just signed. If his new treaty was so good then why does he now have to abrogate it before its expiration and come up with a new treaty?

Also, it’s interesting that he is putting a 25% tariff on us (supposedly his friends) vs. only a threatened 10% tariff on China, supposedly his main economic annd military adversary. As many of us here have been saying for quite awhile Trump intends to inflict considerable harm on Canada to force us to bow to his will. He is out to take over Canada by any means possible. He sees it, along with Greenland and the Panama Canal, as the ultimate extension of manifest destiny.
 

This little gem comes from Trump’s own White House back in 2020 following the replacement of NAFTA with the USMCA treaty which he had just signed. If his new treaty was so good then why does he now have to abrogate it before its expiration and come up with a new treaty?

Also, it’s interesting that he is putting a 25% tariff on us (supposedly his friends) vs. only a threatened 10% tariff on China, supposedly his main economic annd military adversary. As many of us here have been saying for quite awhile Trump intends to inflict considerable harm on Canada to force us to bow to his will. He is out to take over Canada by any means possible. He sees it, along with Greenland and the Panama Canal, as the ultimate extension of manifest destiny.
Personally I'm slowly warming to the Idea of Canadian nuclear weapons.
I wonder if Ukraine ever regrets the 94 ' ( ? ) treaty with both the US and Russia acting as guarantors of Ukraine's independence.
 

This little gem comes from Trump’s own White House back in 2020 following the replacement of NAFTA with the USMCA treaty which he had just signed. If his new treaty was so good then why does he now have to abrogate it before its expiration and come up with a new treaty?

Also, it’s interesting that he is putting a 25% tariff on us (supposedly his friends) vs. only a threatened 10% tariff on China, supposedly his main economic annd military adversary. As many of us here have been saying for quite awhile Trump intends to inflict considerable harm on Canada to force us to bow to his will. He is out to take over Canada by any means possible. He sees it, along with Greenland and the Panama Canal, as the ultimate extension of manifest destiny.
I think it’s 10% additional on china from what they currently have. I could be wrong though.
 
Let’s not kid ourselves. Trump doesn’t want us actually stronger. He doesn’t care if we’re more democratic because he doesn’t actually care about his own democracy other than as a tool to empower and aggrandize himself. He’s a ‘will to power’ type. He wants to leverage, exploit, and profit from other countries. Our weaknesses and failings aren’t actually things that particularly vex him; rather they’re political and diplomatic vulnerabilities that he knows he can wedge a lever in to justify more crass and exploitive wants of his own.

Being able to literally fold some or all of Canada into the U.S. - to acquire us, in a way familiar tot he him in the world he came up in - would be the ultimate coup. If he actually has his sights set on that, on economically pressuring us to cave and sell out, it’s not something we’ll ameliorate by policy choices.

Now, we should make sound policy choices anyway for their own sake, and to be able to take the rhetorical wind out of his sails at least somewhat. We should absolutely materially improve our sovereignty for the sake of sovereignty. But the Trump wind blows hard, and I think we’re in for four straight years of plain bullying to try to coerce us. Preparing for anything less than that would be foolhardy.

I certainly don't think Trump is acting out of any sort of benevolence. At least not towards Canada.

I think that his push for 2 to 5% of GDP is predicated on a couple or three things.

1 - I think that he feels that the US has been employed by the international community as insurer and night watchman for the past few decades and that that has imposed a financial burden on the US that was not carried by countries that are now competing with the US.

2 - I think he wants to monetize that burden and get compensation for past services.

3 - I think he wants other countries to do the security work so the US doesn't have to.

4 - I think he wants other countries to be hindered by their security budgets as much as the US is.

5 - I think also that security may include foreign aid and development of which the US has contributed a lions share.

....

A few years back our Federal Government was in financial difficulties. Paul Martin balanced the books by offloading expenses to the Provinces.

...

I can't agree with those people that are seeing this as a malicious attack on Canada. I don't think we should take this personally and respond defensively. I think we need to see this as a completely different philosophy being implemented by people that feel hard done by and want to do the other thing. I do agree with those who see Canada as being used as an example, demonstrating to the rest of the world that if he can do this to Canada then he can do this to anybody. After all Canada is a Most Favoured Nation who was granted tariff free access to the US market first in what became, or was supposed to become, a model for international trade.

I also think that Canada being threatened with the same 25% tariff as Mexico on, essentially, the same grounds as Mexico was indicative of his desire to renegotiate the NAFTA agreements. Canada was minded, once upon a time, to stand with Mexico against the US. Trump managed to separate Mexico and Canada the last time around. This time around Trudeau started talking about standing with Mexico. It didn't take long until Freeland very publicly threw Mexico under the bus. We have got to the place where we are arguing that we don't deserve 25% tariffs because we aren't Mexico. We don't have the drug and immigration problems Mexico does. And our workers aren't as cheap as Mexico's.
 
Business is business. He owes us no favours. Currently, he's dealing with a hostile marxist government. He is completely mistrustful, and rightly so, of this government. He's caught trudeau more than once being two faced and shit talking behind his back. He has absolutely no reason to trust us or be magnanimous and charitable to us. We need educated, professional people to handle this. Not politicians. He's already well on his way to divide and conquer and has our team sniping at each other. We need to sit back, take a breath and approach this professionally and without emotion.
 
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