CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia

[Czech_pivo]

What on my list of revised priorities doesn't fulfill the dual role of countering China?

Doubling the reqts.
Don't look to buy an extra 12 F-35's and expect that they cover off both the need in Europe and the need in SE Asia. If Europe requires 12, buy them and if SE Asia requires another 8, buy them, but for God's sake don't buy only 12 and say that we've covered off both reqts.

 

[WLSC]

The 250k US personnel in Europe are 1/8th of our Force.
That leaves a fairly robust Force available for Pacific Pivot.

Canada doesn’t seem to have any inclination to Pacific pivot - and isn’t structured in any way shape or form in the CAF to do that, nor does it seem to want to be shaped that way.

Until reality comes knocking to the door. In the mean time, beef up the Great White North, concentrate in Europe and be prepare to do somehting in Asia. That is the only posture I can see.

 

[KevinB]

Until reality comes knocking to the door. In the mean time, beef up the Great White North, concentrate in Europe and be prepare to do somehting in Asia. That is the only posture I can see.

Reality knocked before - and has been knocking quite recently -- JT doesn't answer the door.

To further drum on my "too light to fight, too heavy to move" view of the CA, it has neither the forces to compete in a near peer conflict in Europe - or the Pacific.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The 250k US personnel in Europe are 1/8th of our Force.
That leaves a fairly robust Force available for Pacific Pivot.

Canada doesn’t seem to have any inclination to Pacific pivot - and isn’t structured in any way shape or form in the CAF to do that, nor does it seem to want to be shaped that way.

When was the last time the CAF had 1/8 of its force stationed outside its borders? Was it pre-89 in Germany/France or was it Korea? Anyone know?

 

[KevinB]

What on my list of revised priorities doesn't fulfill the dual role of countering China?

Additional Fighter Aircraft earmarked for Europe the Indo-Pacific (expand the F-35 buy if required or invest in UCAV development to supplement them).

I would argue that the RCAF needs significantly more than even 140 F-35, and perhaps a dual fleet of F-15EX and F-35 would make more sense. Yes another airframe, but the same airframe in use down here - and same that will be flown in EU/PAC theaters.

Increase our airlift/AAR capability to support fighter operations and surge of forces to Europe the Indo-Pacific if required (I'd love to see our A300 MRTT order doubled).

Someone needs to get Boeing to re-open the C-17 line, you would find a lot of willing global partners for 50+ airframes.

Increase our ISR and EW capabilites (P-8s, UAVs, possibly even Global Eye, ground based capabilities, etc.) to assist in detecting a Russian Chinese build-up in advance as well as providing targeting for strikes if hostilities begin.

P-8, Global Hawk etc -- but the P-8 buy shouldn't just replace the P-3 (sorry CP-140) 1 for 1 as the RCAF doesn't have enough, and the fleet probably needs at least a 50% expansion

Invest in building a well-equipped, high-readiness rapid reaction light force that could quickly deploy to Europethe Indo-Pacific in case of an invasion or heightened tensions. Needs to include lots of AT and AA capability within the force. Objective would be to rapidly increase deterrence once a build-up is detected or to blunt/slow the initial attack if it occurs in order give time for heavier forces to be deployed.

I'd argue the entire regular force Army should be constructed that way - with the Medium/Heavy Force being made of Reserves, or at least 2/3rds of the Reg Force Army to be Light (Airborne/Airmobile capable).

Alternately heavily invest in SHORAD, MRAD and Long Range Precision Fires (HIMARS) capabilities which can be rapidly air deployed to Europe the Indo-Pacific in support of allied ground troops in case of conflict.

One would need that too - it isn't an either or.

Alternate "B" - pre-position additional equipment to round out eFP Latvia the Indo-Pacific with fly-over troops in case of conflict (I prefer the other two options as they can be deployed wherever a risk of conflict is detected rather than already being located in a specific area that can be targeted by Russian forces in initial strikes).

Prepositoning a Bde of Equipment in Poland/Latvia - maybe later Ukraine itself - with a Reg skeleton crew (with full maintenance) and a flyover Reserve contingent --- do the same thing in Australia

In general increase our Air and Naval forces in order to be able to better support and protect a surge of US forces into theatre [insert any applicable theatre here].

We (USA) have a really big machine - support and protection aren't shortfalls down here -- transport it (one may laugh at that - as we have 223 C-17's, but getting equipment into any theatre is an issue without proper build up time -- heck we have over 1 Corps worth of ABCT's in Europe just for war stock (now opened for V Corps in Poland etc) and we are constantly stressing the fleet to keep forces sustained - and build up critical mass.
The CAF needs to be able to transport, supply and support itself regardless of theatre - something it really can't do unless it is a fairly insignificant force.

 

[KevinB]

When was the last time the CAF had 1/8 of its force stationed outside its borders? Was it pre-89 in Germany/France or was it Korea? Anyone know?

Germany with 4 CMBG, 10TAG etc.
Korea would have been theoretically higher - due to the size of the CAF at the time.

 

[McG]

Germany with 4 CMBG, 10TAG etc.

10 TAG was in Canada with Mobile Command. 1 CAG was in Germany with CFE.

 

[KevinB]

10 TAG was in Canada with Mobile Command. 1 CAG was in Germany with CFE.

My bad - I have flushed a lot of that era knowledge.

 

[Good2Golf]

10 TAG was in Canada with Mobile Command. 1 CAG was in Germany with CFE.

I took KevinB’s comment to mean 444 Squadron, which was chopped from 10 TAG OPCOM to 4 CMBG and co-located in Lahr. Yes, 1 CAG was in Germany too, but in Baden, not co-located with 4 CMBG.

 

[McG]

There was a 4 CMBG battalion that was based on the tarmac in Baden–Soellingen, so one could argue that 1 CAG & 4 CMBG were collocated.
At various point of time through its existence, 1 CAG was alternately named 1 CAD. One of those periods of time also saw 1st Cdn Div HQ in Lahr.
Which means CFE, for one point in time, consisted of two small divisions.

 

[Good2Golf]

There was a 4 CMBG battalion that was based on the tarmac in Baden–Soellingen, so one could argue that 1 CAG & 4 CMBG were collocated.

Nah, the Army just fell for the “we can’t do our own airfield defence, you’ll have to come up and man the gates while were out at TGIMTWTFSS… “ trick.

At various point of time through its existence, 1 CAG was alternately named 1 CAD. One of those periods of time also saw 1st Cdn Div HQ in Lahr.
Which means CFE, for one point in time, consisted of two small divisions.

By ‘small’ do you mean ‘a lot bigger than a Canadian Division today?’

 

[Blackadder1916]

. . . One of those periods of time also saw 1st Cdn Div HQ in Lahr.
Which means CFE, for one point in time, consisted of two small divisions.

It was 1 Cdn Div HQ (Fwd) that was in Germany. Div HQ (Main) was in Kingston. The div consisted of 4 CMBG which was on the ground in Lahr and Baden-Soellingen and the roundout bde was 5 GBMC from Valcartier.

 

[McG]

By ‘small’ do you mean ‘a lot bigger than a Canadian Division today?’

So, I don’t know. I assume 1 CAD of today is bigger than 1 CAD of CFE. But 1st Cdn Div of CFE vs any of the CA’s divisions today? 4 CMBG was bigger than today’s CMBGs despite it not having a third infantry battalion, but the current divisions have a lot of reservists that should count for something.

 

[McG]

Finland Nato: Russia threatens to retaliate over membership move

Finland's leaders say they want the country to apply for membership of the alliance "without delay".

www.bbc.com

Are we at the point where NATO should be dropping an eFP into Finland? What's ⅩⅧ Corps doing right now?

 

[MilEME09]

Finland Nato: Russia threatens to retaliate over membership move

Finland's leaders say they want the country to apply for membership of the alliance "without delay".

www.bbc.com

Are we at the point where NATO should be dropping an eFP into Finland? What's ⅩⅧ Corps doing right now?

I mean the UK dropped an armoured battlegroup there for now. I could easily see NATO forces setting up shop in Finland.

 

[KevinB]

Finland Nato: Russia threatens to retaliate over membership move

Finland's leaders say they want the country to apply for membership of the alliance "without delay".

www.bbc.com

Are we at the point where NATO should be dropping an eFP into Finland? What's ⅩⅧ Corps doing right now?

They are hanging out in Poland looking at maps of Belarus

 

[Blackadder1916]

An increase to Canada's presence in Latvia

Canada to deploy CAF general, staff officers to join NATO headquarters in Latvia

Prime Minster Justin Trudeau announced on Thursday that Canada will send a Canadian Armed Forces general officer and six staff officers to NATO's Multinational Division North Headquarters, based in Adazi, Latvia.

www.ctvnews.ca

Canada to deploy CAF general, staff officers to join NATO headquarters in Latvia​

Prime Minster Justin Trudeau announced on Thursday that Canada will send a Canadian Armed Forces general officer and six staff officers to NATO’s Multinational Division North Headquarters, based in Ādaži, Latvia.

The announcement comes after a closed-door meeting with Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš.

“They’ll be part of a first-of-its-kind unit in the northern Baltic Sea region to help plan, co-ordinate and integrate regional military activities that will serve as a continued and important part of our enhancements to NATO’s defence and deterrence capabilities,” said Trudeau.

The prime minister said it’s an ask long requested by Latvia that will help to defend against threats to democracy and global stability.

Canada has already deployed nearly 700 soldiers to Latvia as part of Operation Reassurance’s Forward Presence Battle Group.

Kariņš said the additional reinforcement is a “step absolutely in the right direction, and it’s very, very highly appreciated.”

Trudeau said the two discussed the changing security dynamic in the Baltic region and the need to reassess NATO’s risk posture.

“Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine shows…[it] is willing to make terrible strategic mistakes and act against all reasonable assumptions and miscalculate so much,” he said.

Karinš told CTV News Channel’s Power Play on Wednesday evening that Latvia and other Baltic states would like to see NATO’s presence there move from a “tripwire” to an “active, forward” defence posture.

“Thinking about our own defence, NATO's defence, what we need to do is to make it much more robust, we need to make it permanent. And we need to change it say from a tripwire defence … to an active forward defence,” he said.

Karinš said in doing so, Russians would be deterred from attempting to advance elsewhere in the future because it would be clear their advances would be stopped from the outset.

The Latvian prime minister repeated this call on Thursday.

“The approach or the proper response of NATO is a political decision to, in a sense, up our capabilities to lower the probability of any such attack in the Baltics,” he said.

Trudeau said these issues will be discussed further at the upcoming NATO Summit in Madrid starting on June 29.

 

[Fabius]

Deploying GOFOs and staff officers is our favorite way to contribute. As Gen Vance said in 2018 "Doing our part for global peace and security is often more than sending a large contingent of Canadian Armed Forces members."

Maybe we will identify and deploy some actual units to be the Divisional Forces for MND (North)

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Deploying GOFOs and staff officers is our favorite way to contribute. As Gen Vance said in 2018 "Doing our part for global peace and security is often more than sending a large contingent of Canadian Armed Forces members."

Maybe we will identify and deploy some actual units to be the Divisional Forces for MND (North)

It might be a good opportunity to have a CAF leader on ground that can identify gaps we can fill with what we have, vice being asked to contribute something we don't.

 

[Fabius]

Isn't that what Comd Task Force Latvia and the staff that supports them is supposed to do? Pretty sure that is in their Terms of Reference direct from Comd CJOC.
Pretty sure that TFL will continue to have that responsibility vice those personnel who will be attached into MND (North).