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British budget troubles

MarkOttawa

Army.ca Fixture
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A lesson for Canada here?

Our armies are marching out of step
We must radically rethink our defence priorities if we are to repair the special relationship

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5309895.ece

...
Transformation is something we ourselves have to complete. Why, for example, are we so overstretched keeping 8,000 troops on the ground in Afghanistan out of an Army of 100,000? Frankly, it is because we are still trying to shoe-horn expensive projects like aircraft carriers and Eurofighter into an ever-diminishing defence budget. Unlike you, we have simply not matched our increasing interventionism these past ten years with greater defence spending.

Indeed, to use Auden's description of the 1930s, in defence policy we have had a low, dishonest decade. And we are staggering under the burden of equipment projects that, whatever their Keynesian benefits, are no help on current operations. Our carrier programme alone is £3.9 billion from a budget with a £2 billion hole in it. We know that if we are to continue our special military relationship, Britain must conduct a substantial defence review to get its priorities right.

This will mean some loss of cherished, independent capabilities [emphasis added--I would just say that Canada realistically does not have the capabilities to take any major independent military action abroad]. Politicians will be loath to face up to this - cuts in big projects are too public an admission of failure to provide for defence - and senior officers will prefer holding out for more money, as if there were no financial crisis.

But someone has got to take hard decisions. We might, for example, find common interest with the Italian or the Spanish navies in keeping an aircraft carrier in commission under joint command. We will have to be more realistic about the limits to our freedom of what kit we can afford to buy and from whom. To benefit from economies of scale, we will have to co-operate more with the US on buying equipment...

Allan Mallinson is an author and former soldier [his novels are great reads--Flashman without the irony]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Mallinson
http://www.harryflashman.org.uk/

Mark
Ottawa
 
Unfortunately, like Canada in the 90s, the British military is suffering from long term benign neglect by a loonie-left wing government. Things won't change until they boot out the Labour party.
 
with the current economic problems going round the world.... ain't about to happen...
 
More on the British economy:

YOU ARE NO BETTER THAN A FRENCHMAN, MARKETS TELL BRITAIN


THE people of Britain may as well sit round all day leering at women and eating pigs' testicles, the markets said last night.

As the pound plunged to a record low against the Euro, currency dealers said Britain was now dangerously close to reeking of garlic and cigarettes, mixed with the faint odour of stale urine and mashed geese.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/you-are-no-better-than-a-frenchman%2c-markets-tell-britain-200812111453/
 
Garlic, cigarettes, stale urine & mashed geese...... Mmmmm :p
 
Heavy cuts coming (usual copyright disclaimer)?

Armed forces face 20% budget squeeze
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed161114-6e7d-11df-ad16-00144feabdc0.html

Britain must cut by at least a fifth its armed forces’ personnel, aircraft and vessels in order to maintain the current balance of capabilities under the most likely defence budget settlement, according to a leading think-tank.

An authoritative study of the looming squeeze on defence spending by the Royal United Services Institute warns military chiefs to prepare for a “flat cash” settlement while urging the Treasury to avoid bringing forward deep cuts.

While real-term cuts of 12 per cent over the next six years will still leave Britain as a leading military power in Europe, the UK’s relative strength will wane against France and emerging powers such as India and China, the study warns.

Given these severe fiscal constraints, the ongoing Strategic Defence Review must also seriously consider the financial and strategic trade-offs from reducing force levels in Afghanistan and Germany.

Malcolm Chalmers, a fellow at Rusi and author of the study, sets out a “plausible, if perhaps optimistic” central scenario of 10-15 per cent cuts in real terms over the next six years – roughly equivalent to a “flat cash” settlement.

Under a “balanced scenario” where the pain of cuts is shared evenly across all services, Prof Chalmers estimates that this would require personnel to be cut by 20 per cent, aircraft by up to 27 per cent, and major vessels by 21 per cent.

Regular ground formations would be reduced from 98 to around 80 by 2019; aircraft from 760 to 550; and major vessels from 57 to around 45.

Military planners will have to ask “hard questions” about the relative priorities of fixed-wing and rotary aircraft, of combat and support roles and, increasingly, of manned and unmanned platforms.

One programme that will come under scrutiny is the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Even assuming the planned purchase is cut from 150 to 60 aircraft, the programme could cost the UK £5bn or more, starting around 2017, with perhaps another £10bn-£15bn in lifetime support costs [emphasis added], says the report.

[Latest on F-35 costs:
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/80180/post-941357.html#msg941357 ]

The study also questions whether the Royal Navy needs the two new aircraft carriers currently being built for £5.2bn. Most major powers with a carrier capability, it points out, make do with only one vessel...

Mark
Ottawa
 
Decade of Darkness for Britan....that's going to be a huge hit...

I wonder if they are selling off their new subs?  :)
 
GAP said:
Decade of Darkness for Britan....that's going to be a huge hit...

I wonder if they are selling off their new subs?  :)

NEW ? ....

I just can't bring myself to finish the joke(s).  ;D
 
kratz said:
NEW ? ....

I just can't bring myself to finish the joke(s).  ;D

Well, we got the last batch they drydocked cause they were building new ones....This time let's get them before they sit in drydock for 10 years....
 
Will the politicians of any Canadian government have the guts (and knowledge) to review the missions, required force structures, and requisite equipments of our services, given that a real budgetary crunch is already underway--and in my view can only get worse?  I simply do not believe that likely funding levels will support in a first-rate fashion the sort of "multi-purpose, combat capable" services that have been inherited from the Cold War.  The Brits are rethinking but us...

Defence Secretary sets out his priorities
http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/DefenceNews/DefencePolicyAndBusiness/DefenceSecretarySetsOutHisPriorities.htm

...
He says that his second priority is a cross-Government, policy-led, resource-informed Strategic Defence and Security Review, with a thorough examination of our force structure, looking at the overall shape, size and role of Armed Forces personnel and MOD civil servants, including the Reserve Forces.

Dr Fox states that in every aspect of Defence, particularly in the support area, he will be looking to bear down on costs, and that he intends to follow through on the commitment in the Coalition Agreement to reduce the MOD's running costs by 25 per cent...

"One reason why tough choices are needed is that the Government has inherited a forward defence programme that is simply unaffordable against likely future resources. We need to break out of the culture by which key equipment programmes are regularly delayed for affordability reasons. I have set in hand work to review all the major equipment and support contracts to ensure the future programme is coherent with future defence needs and can be afforded.

"At the heart of the SDSR will be a thorough examination of our force structure, looking at the overall shape, size and role of Armed Forces personnel and MOD civil servants, including the Reserve Forces...

Mark
Ottawa
 
By the look of things, not yet:
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/94715.0.html
 
Cute ;).  I still like the mini-Marine Corps idea:
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/94715/post-945610.html#msg945610

My quick thoughts.  I think the Air Force should give up its fighter-bombing role since we're almost never likely to use it and concentrate on supporting the Army with transport and helicopters--since the Army is the key service Canadian governments have used, and seem likely to keep using, as a foreign policy instrument.  Others can supply the CAS as in Afstan.

Plus maritime surveillance--air SAR might well be privatized.

Though how one would recruit pilots for the much smaller number of fighters necessary for surveillance and interdiction for Canadian territory would be a major problem--unless the Bears and any successor really do re-emerge as a threat.

In other words, it seems to me the CF should aim at being a mini-Marine Corps in terms of overseas service, with the extra resources needed for surveillance and defence of Canadian territory and waters.

More broadly.  Money, equipments and personnel for the military are important. What is more important is what a country expects the military to be prepared to do with that money, equipments and personnel. That is what this government is unwilling to try to specify.

Note the proportion of money devoted to maintaining a blue water Navy, as opposed to one focused on coastal defence and sovereignty protection. Why does our Navy need to be engaged in the Arabian Sea interdicting rum-runners? Or hash smugglers?

The answer: jobs building and repairing ships in Canada, and the hoped-for attendant votes. Western countries have a surplus of frigates/destroyers for any likely multilateral blue water operations requiring such vessels. Canadian ones are not essential for the West as a whole; we are exceedingly unlikely to operate on the blue waters on our own.

Then there's the Air Force. Does Canada really require fighters with top-end aerial combat abilities (as opposed to interception and patrol in defence of Canada and North America) and ground-attack capabilities?

Trying to maintain "combat-capable, flexible, multi-role" Canadian Forces for all three services is, to my mind, simply impossible for those services all to be effective and efficient, given the limited funding that our governments (both stripes) are willing to provide.

So a true "defence strategy" would attempt to:

1) Outline how the government thinks the CF should be employed for national, and then international, purposes;

2) Outline what mix of service capabilities are required to fulfill those roles.

But that would require serious decisions with political and service consequences this government is not willing to make--nor are, I am sure, most Canadians. Will any Canadian government ever be so ready?

And how about a civilian maritime patrol aircraft fleet?  Transport Canada already does aerial marine pollution detection (using Bombardiers, buy more for political points),
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/marinesafety/oep-ers-nasp-2195.htm
and Provincial Airlines does it for DFO.
http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/international/media/bk_air-surveillance-aerien-eng.htm

Transport Canada could well operate such a fleet (despite their effort to become mainly a non-operational agency) on behalf of Fisheries and Oceans, Canadian Coast Guard, Environment Canada, CBSA/RCMP, CF as required, and others.

The Air Force would then presumably need fewer maritime patrol planes (whether Auroras or replacement) that would concentrate on military missions such as ASW and armed interdiction.

Get mad at me--but get mad at our governments (and the services) first for not being willing, or able, to think honestly.

Mark
Ottawa
 
The Harvey Axe (cf.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7640349/Geddes-Axe-a-brief-explanation.html ), or UK armed forces effectively to become more like CF (ally-reliant)?  Plus that dang Marine Corps idea again:

With a Lib Dem shaping military strategy we should fear the worst
Shortage of troops has been a recurring problem, yet the minister wants more cuts, says Con Coughlin.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7880317/With-a-Lib-Dem-shaping-military-strategy-we-should-fear-the-worst.html

It is difficult to imagine a moment in the recent history of our Armed Forces when they have found themselves in a more perilous predicament. The Dunkirk evacuation might come close – but if we are not careful, the deadly combination of an unpopular war in Afghanistan and a Government hell-bent on eviscerating the defence budget could do more damage to our claim to be a major military power than the Wehrmacht ever managed.

This is not scare-mongering. When it falls to a Liberal Democrat to tell us that Britain's military is to be made smaller, lighter and more dependent on foreign allies, we should all fear the worst.

Nick Harvey, the new Armed Forces minister, represents a party that is hardly renowned for its martial tradition. The Lib Dems want to scrap our nuclear deterrent, were bitterly opposed to the Iraq War and are committed to withdrawing from Afghanistan at the earliest opportunity. To grasp the sheer naivety of their position, you need look no further than a resolution they passed at their most recent conference. The motion said that the government's priority in Afghanistan should be the "pursuit of a ceasefire", which would then be followed by an immediate withdrawal [emphasis added]. Nick Clegg, now Deputy Prime Minister, voted in favour...

...Mr Harvey, who will play a key role in determining the future strength and structure of the Army, wants a sharp reduction in manning levels throughout the Armed Forces, with far more emphasis on sophisticated weaponry.

That might sound very good in theory, but is not much use when you are fighting a bitter counter-insurgency of the type we have faced in Iraq and Afghanistan. The main reason the violence spun out of control in Iraq following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime was the refusal to commit sufficient numbers of troops. The same has been true of Afghanistan, where it is only the recent arrival of extra American forces that has truly enabled the fight to be taken to the Taliban...

There are, it is true, serious savings that can be made from a defence budget that is already suffering from a jaw-dropping funding gap of £21 billion. This has been caused, to a large extent, by the fierce inter-service rivalry that has military chiefs championing their own pet projects at the expense of what is actually required. Thus the RAF has spent billions of pounds on its new Typhoon Eurofighter, which is brilliant at intercepting any Russian aircraft that attempts to breach British airspace, but useless when it comes to Afghanistan, because the Taliban has no air force to intercept, and the Typhoon has no ground-attack capability.

The Royal Navy's procurement programme is not much better. The desire to project Britain's military prowess across the world has led the Senior Service to dupe the Government into building two state-of-the-art aircraft carriers. But in their haste to steer the contracts through Whitehall, they overlooked vital details, such as making sure the landing deck can accommodate American fighter aircraft. Meanwhile, the Army has shown a marked reluctance to dispense with all the heavy armour – tanks, artillery etc – that it acquired during the Cold War, most of which is now mothballed in Germany.

In fact, the more you look at the way the various services have conducted themselves, the more appealing becomes the case for merging them into a British equivalent of the US Marine Corps [emphasis added], which would end these costly, and often counter-productive, turf wars.

But then again, the US Marines have the military capability to assert their dominance wherever they are deployed. To judge by Mr Harvey's comments this week, our new-look Armed Forces will not even have that. He argues that we should rely more on our allies to defend our interests, rather than maintaining costly equipment programmes of our own...

Mark
Ottawa
 
No worries though for the 6 battalions of tick tock soldiers and their 5 bands...  ;D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guards_Division
 
I think we should starrt a new thread somewhere. My choice of title for it would be: "Why the CF should [never] become a mini-Marine Corps"

Sorry Mark in Ottawa, but I totally disagree with all those who look on the US Marines as a model of national defence. They are not, never have been and never will be. It is smply not in their mandate. (And Mark, I'm not saying that simply because you "dissed" my blue-water Navy in its centenial, two posts above here).

First of all, lets all make sure we understand what the Marines are:

They were the earliest military (non naval) force established by the US Continental Congress, who thought they desperately needed a force similar to the Royal Marines to serve its Navy. The purpose would be the same: Supress mutinies, keep the pressed seaman disciplined and provide ship's captains with professional soldiers for boardings and landings. That's it and that's all.

Until WWI, the Corps remained very small and provided just what it says above. It expanded during WWI, like everybody else, to the point that it was deployed in brigade size force in Europe. Between the wars, it was reduced in numbers again and became involved in a lot of gunboat diplomacy ops and "small" wars, mostly in Central America and the Caribbeans. WWII was their apex: great expansion (but nowhere near that of the US Army) because the war in the Pacific was principally a war of landings, which was (and still is) their speciality. Since WWII, they have retained a reasonable size, mostly because of the cold war, but their duties (other than helping with operations of the army here and there, including Vietnam, Desert storm, Iraq and Afghanistan) have gone back to their basics: Providing security forces to the Navy (base security, nuclear security, shipboard security) and keeping the military art of beach landings alive and well.

Contrary to the apparent belief of some, the Corps is NOT an integrated military force. First, it operates no ships. Even the "Gator" navy that drives them around is entirely operated by the US Navy. Similarily, it does not have air fighting capability: it merely has a limited number of specialized helicopters and Harriers/F-18 dedicated to no other function than carrying landing troops behind the beach in landings and providing ground support aviation. Nothing else. Their actual air cover is provided by the US Navy (a blue-water Navy) carriers. Recall the expression "Two if by sea".

On the ground, because they are expected to carry landings only, they have little in terms of armour or vehicles considering the numbers that would be required in a prolonged or deep operation: They breach the wall and then, if more expansive military ops is contemplated, the Army brings its equipment in and carries on.

None of this is  sufficient  to ensure the defence of a country.

If we start a new thread, Mark, I will expand more on your post of June 15 at 16:07:32.

 
I completely agree with N. McKay.

Was hoping that if the thread I proposed above was picked up, all would fall on the "never" side of the proposition.
 
Trident or...?

Armed forces stunned by Trident bill
Defence chiefs have been left stunned and angry by the Treasury's refusal to finance the £20 billion cost of replacing Britain's ageing nuclear deterrent.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7920328/Armed-forces-stunned-by-Trident-bill.html

In a break with historical precedent, George Osborne, the Chancellor, has ruled that the entire cost of the new system must be found from within the day-to-day defence budget.

The ruling has caused disarray within the Ministry of Defence where officials are already struggling to find cost savings of 20 per cent – or £7 billion – from next year's budget.

Major capabilities such as Britain's two new aircraft carriers may now be axed or delayed, the number of Joint Strike Fighter aircraft is set to be halved  [emphasis added] and a raft of RAF, Army and Naval bases will be closed in addition to other cuts, to fund the Trident replacement programme.

The Sunday Telegraph has learned that Liam Fox, the defence secretary, had assumed that the huge cost of replacing Britain's four ageing Trident submarines would be met by the Government because the nuclear deterrent is a "political" and not a "war fighting weapon"...

The defence secretary immediately hit back warning that it will be impossible to maintain the MoD's other capabilities if it alone has to meet the full cost of the Trident replacement programme.

One senior Tory said: "This ruling has put Liam Fox on collision course with both the Treasury and David Cameron. It will all end in tears and they won't be the prime minister's".

Such are the financial pressures on the MoD that the four-submarine deterrent could be reduced to three or possibly two vessels to save money.

Under the new defence review, the entire Tornado fleet could be axed along with an armoured brigade, artillery regiments, the Nimrod MR2 anti-submarine fleet and RAF Kinloss.

The number of Joint Strike Fighters could be cut from from 150 to 75 and troops withdrawn from Germany.

One of Britain's two new aircraft carriers could also be cancelled...

More:


Having to pay for Trident is the Ministry of Defence's worst nightmare
There is no way the Defence budget can cover all our current commitments, argues Gen Sir Richard Dannatt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7920208/Having-to-pay-for-Trident-is-the-Ministry-of-Defences-worst-nightmare.html

...
This is where the bold decision-taking has to cut in. Of course the RAF must have the most capable aircraft available to protect our skies, meaning that we need enough of the latest batch of Typhoon aircraft to do this. But we cannot also afford to keep the ageing Tornadoes and the historic Harriers, of Falklands fame.

This dose of reality impacts on the aircraft carrier programme, too. At £4 billion, the two ships are not actually that expensive – but at £10 billion, the Joint Strike Fighters intended to fly off them most certainly are. This brings the whole project into doubt, and two related questions into focus. Those are: how does the Royal Navy best protect our trade routes and shipping – a lifeline on which our island nation still depends – and how is air power to be provided in support of our land forces?

The answers lie with more and smaller ships to secure the sea lanes, and land-based planes whose range is enhanced by a renegotiated air-to-air refuelling programme. And in case anyone thinks that this retired general is wearing khaki-coloured spectacles, the Army needs to reduce immediately its holdings of main battle tanks and heavy artillery, and its presence in Germany.

Mr Osborne changed the game on Friday. The unthinkable can only become thinkable via the strict application of priorities, and a consensus on what is genuinely in the national interest. Vested interests and cherished projects are burdens we can no longer afford.

Gen Sir Richard Dannatt is a former Chief of the General Staff


Mark
Ottawa
 
These modern wars are being defined as wars "amongst the population" rather than wars "between armies".  Those types of wars require, as said many times before, "constables" or "boots on the ground".

Ancient technology pitted "constables" against "constables".  World War One and Two pitted internal combustion against constables.  The Cold War pitted technology against technology.  Bill Gates down-sized technology.  Now the constables don't need as much support to keep the other guys constables at bay.

But strangely enough......human nature hasn't changed and we still need constables.
 
Back to the few (usual copyright disclaimer)?

RAF to shrink to World War One levels
The RAF will shrink to its smallest size since the First World War, under unprecedented cuts being proposed at the Ministry of Defence.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/7931465/RAF-to-shrink-to-World-War-One-levels.html

...
The Services will lose up to 16,000 personnel, hundreds of tanks, scores of fighter jets and half a dozen ships, under detailed proposals passed to The Daily Telegraph.

But the RAF will bear the brunt of the planned cuts. The Air Force will lose 7,000 airmen – almost one sixth of its total staff – and 295 aircraft. The cuts will leave the Force with fewer than 200 fighter planes for the first time since 1914. In addition, the Navy will lose two submarines, three amphibious ships and more than 100 senior officers, along with 2,000 sailors and marines.

The Army faces a 40 per cent cut to its fleet of 9,700 armoured vehicles and the loss of a 5,000-strong brigade of troops...

By the end of this month the Defence Strategy Group, comprising ministers and military chiefs, will be presented with a number of recommendations that they will refine and pass to the National Security Council, chaired by the Prime Minister, in September.

In October, after agreement with the Treasury, an announcement will be made in Parliament on precisely what cuts the Forces face as part of the comprehensive spending review of Whitehall budgets.

If implemented, the cuts will mean that Britain will almost certainly depart the world stage as a major military power and become what military chiefs call a “medium-scale player”...

The entire force of 120 GR4 Tornado fighter-bombers looks destined for the scrap heap to save £7.5 billion over the next five years. The Tornado was supposed to be in service until 2025, but with a major overhaul due in the next five years costing £10 million for each aircraft, it is now under threat.

The cut will mean job losses as RAF Lossiemouth and RAF Marham totalling almost 5,000 personnel.

Under the plans, the number of Eurofighter Typhoons is likely to be reduced further from 160 to 107 planes based at a single RAF airfield to save £1  billion. The entire fleet of 36 Hercules transport aircraft, the workhorse in Iraq and Afghanistan, is to be phased out and replaced by an order of 22 new A400M planes.

The £3.6 billion project for nine Nimrod MR4 reconnaissance aircraft is also vulnerable, along with a number of other surveillance planes.

The proposals include a swathe of cuts to the Army’s armoured regiments with the loss of Challenger 2 tanks, AS90 guns and Warrior armoured vehicles.

While the Army is likely to lose a few thousand soldiers in the coming year, reducing its numbers to about 100,000, it is braced to lose an entire brigade of about 5,000 when combat troops withdraw from Afghanistan in 2015. It is understood that 7 Armoured Brigade or 20 Armoured Brigade, both based in Germany, are the most vulnerable.

Infantry battalions will be increased from about 600 troops to 750 as a lesson from Afghanistan has been the loss of combat effectiveness through leave and casualties, according to the plans.

The Royal Marines also face coming under direct Army control from Navy command and the possibility of being grouped into a “super elite” unit alongside two Parachute Regiment battalions [emphasis added]... 

Mark
Ottawa
 
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