Are the Taliban gaining momentum ? Aug 2008

[OldSolduer]

I had the occasion to speak with a member of the French Foreign Legion in Croatia in 1993. In fact, they were the best French troops in the region at the time. The French Army battalion at the time was holed up in their camp and hadn't patrolled the Serb dominated area in six months.
I was impressed with the Legion soldiers. Their weapons were clean and they looked fit. I wasn't very impressed with the conscript battalion. Anyways, I am off topic.

If the new French President is as gutsy in foreign affairs as he is in his choice of women, I think the Taliban are in for a hard time, no pun intended.

 

[geo]

conscripts are.... conscripts.
At the time, French citzens had to do 18 mths of service - like it or not.  So yeah, they would not have been too impressive
The Legion on the other hand is an entirely different kettle of fish.  Volunteers to the core - hard core.. they wanted to be there and they would have been very effective at what they were told to do.

 

[Danjanou]

The French got rid of Conscription in 1996.

Way back in the day when we were based in Baden and Lahr We had a lot of contact with the conscripts of the French army based down the road at Rastatt. Not an impressive lot as noted, 18 year olds reluctantly doing their national service because they were too afraid of the consequences of not showing up, and of course like many conscript peace time armies not especially well lead or trained in my opinion, at least compared to us then. The Legion then as always being the exception.

These boys are not their fathers pulling garrison/occupation duty in the Black Forest. BTW in addition to the 2e Régiment Étranger de Parachutistes the other unit that took casualties was the 1st Marine Infantry Parachute Regiment part of the
French Army Special Forces Brigade not quite reluctant conscripts.

 

[Gunnar]

Would I be totally off base if I suggested that the recent uptick in belligerent action was largely due to the fact that the poppy harvest is complete, and perhaps they simply have money, and unemployed (former poppy pickers) people available?

 

[a_majoor]

WRT momentum, the Taliban need to show a strong face to the world press, even if they are down to their last rounds and men. Various factors favor them right now (end of the harvest, mercenary troops, safe havens in Pakistan), but the real reason for the upsurge in Taliban activity in my mind has to be the steady gains being made on the ground by ISAF and the GoA.

The Taliban MUST unleash violence and terror against the locals in order to frighten them away from the attractive rebuilding and reconstruction work the GoA is doing. They MUST also try to destabilize the government before the ANA becomes too strong to overwhelm, before government institutions find their feet and begin providing effective service to the people of Afghanistan, and the all important date, before 2015 when the wave of six million children emerge from the education system and become the critical mass of educated and skilled people needed to run things on their own.

Since they cannot defeat us in the field, their only other option is to create such an impression of chaos that the governments that provide troops and support to ISAF loose heart and order a withdrawl before 2015. Note these "spectaculars" are still highly localized in both time and space (a rash of events is usually bracketed by a long quiet spell as they rebuild and assemble their finite resources).

 

[T.I.M.]

As a member deployed on Roto 5 I can't speak for the rest of Afghanistan, but it Kandahar they're about back to where they were in 2006 from what I see, a little weaker but also a little wiser.  We're pretty much where we were two years ago really, with some gains and some losses.  I'd call it a stalemate overall.  As winter approaches Roto 6 taking over from us is inevitably going to roll them back but overall here they've had a decent summer, and all else remaining the same we'd probably be back where we started next summer.

What'll change the situation is the steady increase in US forces.  That gives us the ability to expand our footprint and push into new areas.  2-2 Inf moved into Maywand earlier this month, which is a longstanding Taliban "logistics node" where most of the weapons, drugs and fighters smuggled into Zhari/Panjwayi and Northern Helmand come through.  Until now we've never been able to affect it - neither us or the Brits had the numbers to keep a permanent and powerful presence there.  I'm expecting good things from 2-2.

As more and more US forces arrive the Taliban are going to lose more and more safehavens.  At the same time they *are* getting better tactically - some of the guys in 2 PPCLI were here for MEDUSA and said after one battle in Siah Choy that the enemy there was a lot better than what they fought in 2006 - more aggressive and more tactically savvy.  So as the Taliban start to lose key terrain they're going to get nasty, which could mean some hard fighting ahead.  What will ultimately decide this though is the fact that the Taliban have *nothing* to offer the populace.  When we move into areas the Taliban have held for *years* there is no loyalty to them on the part of the locals - if we can provide security and services, then they're all for us and its as if the Taliban had never been. Look at the fall of Musa Qala in Helmand.  Even with the corrosive effects of Government corruption and mismanagement, the Taliban are still an entirely negative movement that relies on our absence to coerce and threaten the populace, and has nothing positive to offer over event the most meager efforts of Karzai's henchmen.

 

[Old Sweat]

T.I.M.

Re the assessment that the TB are more aggressive and tactically savvy, is that because of better training or because they are using outsiders instead of local hires or neither or both?

 

[T.I.M.]

May be the case over in RC(E) but we haven't had anything confirmed here in Kandahar.  There's probably the odd foreign fighter running around here, but most of them are your usual angry Afghans.  They're just learning - some of them are the same guys who have been fighting us since 2006.  Surviving that long teaches a lot of tricks, and those who don't learn, die.

At least that's the case for the Zhari/Panjwayi veterans.  When we fight the guys from the northern safe havens who barely ever encounter us we can immediately tell the difference.  They, frankly, suck.  From what I hear the RC(E) guys are even better than the Z/P crew, and that probably IS due to all the training time in Pakistan and substantial foreign assistance.

 

[Old Sweat]

Thank you, good summary.

 

[Dog Walker]

Is it a case of the TB going after NATO, or is NATO going after the TB?

Some media reports stated that the French had intruded into a known TB held area. Also there is this news report on CTV saying that our battle group has just completed a massive offensive operation in Zhari District.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080823/zhari_op_080823/20080823?hub=TopStories

 

[X-mo-1979]

TIM,not a personal attack. However all I see is KAF on your profile.And your info seems to be coming from outside sources on the so called stalemate your talking about.Is this just your view?How do you validate it being a stalemate (i.e facts?)

 

[T.I.M.]

Hmmmm, well, if you remember back to the end of 2006 and the area we were supposed to control by now, having driven the Taliban out, encouraged development, and increased government control. . . well, that hasn't materialized.  Among other things we were supposed to have ink-blotted most of Zhari by now, and be well on our way through Maywand, Shah Wali Kot, Ghorack et al.  But all the places where 2 PPCLI are fighting have the same names as where we were fighting at the end of 2006, and through 2007. Just look at the recent OP TIMIS PREEM (It also means "Lawnmower" and isn't that an awesome name or what? ) which shows the good and the not so good.  Good:  We kicked their ass.  Not so Good:  We did it in the exact same location where we kicked their ass in late 2006.  It's not that we don't regularly thump the Taliban - but that doesn't win you an insurgency.  So long as we don't control the ground we can't keep them out, and if we can't keep them out we can't keep the development and government in.  In the end there's only so much ground two companies can hold down.

. . .Which is why the arrival of 2-2 Inf is gonna be a huge change for the positive.  We've just doubled the number of Coalition boots on the ground in our AOR.  Some talking heads are fond of saying more troops won't solve the problem, which is nonsense.  Drop another 50,000 Americans into RC(S) and the Taliban, as they are today, are hooped.  So long as they retain cross-border safe havens and the GoA remains capable of pissing off the Pashtuns they won't vanish, but they'll be a lot weaker than they are now.

 

[tomahawk6]

Same mistake the VC made in Vietnam.Once they began operating in force it was easier to find them,fix them and destroy them. Same will happen in Afghanistan if they go down this path.

AFGHANISTAN
Taliban fielding battalion-sized forces, military records reveal
Murray Brewster
THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA–Taliban militants reportedly amassed a 600-strong fighting force and dragged out bigger weapons only 10 months after being routed by NATO forces in a landmark 2006 battle west of Kandahar, newly released documents have revealed.

The heavily-censored records, released to The Canadian Press under access to information laws, provide a candid glimpse of the insurgency and the heavy odds faced by Afghan security forces and their Canadian trainers as they battle to hold territory.

Much has been made of the scope and complexity of the ambush that killed 10 French soldiers on Tuesday in eastern Afghanistan. But the documents – withheld for months by the Canadian Defence Department – suggest Taliban commanders have long been gaining critical battle experience in Kandahar, using Afghan security forces as target practice.

As many as 100 insurgents were involved in Tuesday's attack on a French and U.S. reconnaissance patrol in the Sarobi district.

But Canadian army daily situation reports show Afghan forces and the Canadians mentoring them were encountering Taliban organized into formations ranging from 200 to 600 fighters in June 2007.
More on the link
www.thestar.com/News/W...cle/482490

 

[pizzathahut]

"Op Timis Preem" a success in Afghanistan. Megatron unavailable for comment."

 

[gun runner]

LOL that is good!!. The more boots on the ground is what we really need right now..and that is a real boost for morale, both here and in the field. Now.... if we can just find those SOB's that keep putting out those damned IED's. RIP Sgt. . Ubique

 

[OldSolduer]

Find that mullah .....and... :rage:

 

[MarkOttawa]

A post at The Torch:

Afstan: A very "quiet surge" indeed by US/Canadian "journalism"
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2008/09/afstan-very-quiet-surge-indeed-by.html

Mark
Ottawa

 

[gun runner]

It's a good article.  But when are the U.S. army troops due to arrive in Kandahar to help out?  Will it really be a two month gap in troop strength?  And why is this not in the news as the columnist had said.  Are we mushrooms?  Kept in the dark and fed bull***t?  Yes, the article about the turbine should have been in the papers..a sort of feel good news event to help us out of the moods we are all in from our recent losses.  The American troop surge will be a welcome boost to the firepower on the ground right now, and maybe it will bring some new toys to the game..like the EXCALIBER arty round. I know we are seeing them in more numbers, but maybe they will be around for more than a demonstration or two. These gadgets and gizmos help us to hurt the enemy. Bring 'em all I say. More troops means potentially more loss.. that is the way it is played out in the big game, but more numbers means an advantage that the badguys dont have.. trained professionals on the ground 24/7 looking for them even when they aren't looking for us.  So why are the newsies not telling us the whole story? Ubique

 

[MarkOttawa]

gun runner: A US Army battalion has been at Kandahar for a while:
http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=63871&archive=true
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=2e2b8b97-6c70-439e-baab-fd34ad668795

Mark
Ottawa

 

[gun runner]

Ok, thanks for the info. Ubique