Afghans defeating the Taliban

[Colin Parkinson]

Interesting point:  We call them "Taliban", but the locals don't.  "Taliban" is something we started using for some reason unknown to me, perhaps to differentiate them from the Mujahideen, whom the Americans supported.  Taliban actually means "students", which no doubt causes multiple cases of mistaken identities.

The original Taliban came from the refugee camps in Pakistan, with Mullah Omar as their leader. From my reading the ISI raised, trained and tasked them to clear the roads in Afghanistan of the warlords roadblocks at the bequest of the Pakistani trucking Mafia. The Taliban did way better than expected and took control of most of the country, along the way picking up supporters and alliances. I suspect most of the people from the 90's are dead, maimed or retired, Omar is a figurehead leader that only has so much power and apparently not been in Afghanistan for almost a decade. With NATO gone as a threat the Taliban might surge for a bit, but beyond a local governance, what else can they offer? They can't raise much in the way of funds except through poppy harvests and they are involved in a long complicated war in the NWF. If the Taliban succeed in taking over again I can't see the other ethnic groups willing to submit again to them. At some point we will be back to the 90's with Iran, Russia and West all having a common interest in containing the Taliban. Without an external threat, I don't see the Taliban staying intact. The same alliances will chafe and rebel and with funds being tight, local governance demands I don't see the local warlord coughing over large sums to the senior councils, most living in Pakistan.
Plus if Pakistan unravels, the Taliban may lose much of their logistical and intelligence support. 

 

[Edward Campbell]

The original Taliban came from the refugee camps in Pakistan, with Mullah Omar as their leader. From my reading the ISI raised, trained and tasked them to clear the roads in Afghanistan of the warlords roadblocks at the bequest of the Pakistani trucking Mafia. The Taliban did way better than expected and took control of most of the country, along the way picking up supporters and alliances. I suspect most of the people from the 90's are dead, maimed or retired, Omar is a figurehead leader that only has so much power and apparently not been in Afghanistan for almost a decade. With NATO gone as a threat the Taliban might surge for a bit, but beyond a local governance, what else can they offer? They can't raise much in the way of funds except through poppy harvests and they are involved in a long complicated war in the NWF. If the Taliban succeed in taking over again I can't see the other ethnic groups willing to submit again to them. At some point we will be back to the 90's with Iran, Russia and West all having a common interest in containing the Taliban. Without an external threat, I don't see the Taliban staying intact. The same alliances will chafe and rebel and with funds being tight, local governance demands I don't see the local warlord coughing over large sums to the senior councils, most living in Pakistan.
Plus if Pakistan unravels, the Taliban may lose much of their logistical and intelligence support.

And please don't forget the role of the Saudis in all this. The House of Saud, the royal family, funds networks of madrassas (schools, of sorts, that teach young boys to read and interpret the Quran in accordance with Wahhabi principles) around the world. Many are in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan and they are, generally, seen as being the "recruiting base" of the Taliban (Talib means student).

 

[The Bread Guy]

.... From my reading the ISI raised, trained and tasked them to clear the roads in Afghanistan of the warlords roadblocks at the bequest of the Pakistani trucking Mafia ....

Would love to read more along this story line - any decent easily-available refs to share?  Thanks!

 

[Colin Parkinson]

His books give a good introduction to the situation outlining the time prior and the birth of the Taliban. It's quite likely your public library has some of them. Often you can request your library to buy books.
Ahmed Rashid
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Rashid