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Here, reproduced under the fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is a cogent analysis of the politics of this situation:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mackay-may-be-indefensible-but-his-job-is-safe/article1395273/
“Something has to be done” ... Yes, indeed! But Ibbitson doesn’t go far enough.
There needs to be some formal, legal answers to the questions:
1. Why were the provisions for detainee handling and transfer so weak until 2007?
2. What were the options, from 2002 until 2006? The Americans? NATO? A Canadian “cage?” The Afghans?
3. Who made these decisions?
4. Why were detainees handed over to the Afghans, at all? It appears that there was a well founded knowledge, within the Government of Canada, that the Afghans were quite unable
to exercise their responsibilities under international law?
The issue is much, much deeper than “who knew what and when?” That’s a very local, inside the Queensway, question that means nothing to most Canadians. But Paul Dewar and Ujal Dosanjh have both suggested that ministers and officials and generals are war criminals. If something is not done to put those charges to rest then we may know, for certain, that someone like Amir Attaran or Michael Byers*will try to move the issue to the International Criminal Court on the basis that, under Article 17 of the ICC’s charter (The Rome Statute), Canada has not investigated the matter.
To date, the ICC has done nothing to suggest that it intends to deviate from its legal mandate, but that has not prevented a mob of disparate groups and individuals from using the ICC as a backdrop for political theatre. Threats are continuously made, by these mobs, against countries and leaders. That the threats are groundless and meaningless does not stop the media from trumpeting them and, in the process, blackening names, tarnishing reputations and reducing a country’s global political capital.
I don’t know what level of investigation is sufficient; the ICC will, I guess, be satisfied with almost anything; folks like Attaran, Byers* et al are unlikely to be satisfied with anything except a full blown judicial inquiry into detainees, the entire Afghan mission, Conservative foreign policy and the evil USA.
But: I think Ibbitson has the politics right: this is issue will compel neither MacKay’s resignation nor a judicial inquiry and the timing (Xmas) works in the government’s favour.
But: sooner or later Canada will have to find a way to answer some fundamental questions about how we, any nation, for that matter, prosecutes 21st century wars (à la Afghanistan) within the constraint of 19th century ideals.
---------------
* I have no idea what Profs. Attaran and Byers might do but they have been, publicly, active and vocal on this issue so they provide a useful example of the sorts of qualified, credible people who might want to use tools like the ICC to advance their views.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mackay-may-be-indefensible-but-his-job-is-safe/article1395273/
MacKay may be indefensible, but his job is safe
Harper would never fire his minister over the treatment of Afghan detainees, because it's not a ballot question and never will be
John Ibbitson
Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009
In a different time, over a different issue, with a different minister, a resignation might be in the offing. But in these times, when the issue is Afghanistan, and when the minister is Peter MacKay - not likely.
"Ministerial responsibility" is an anachronistic phrase that used to hold cabinet ministers responsible for whatever goes on in their department. It lost any meaning back in 1991, when then-foreign minister Joe Clark refused to resign over the al Mashat affair, blaming his staff for the arrival of Iraq's former U.S. ambassador as an immigrant, with inside help.
Today, a minister is as responsible as a prime minister says he is. Defence Minister Peter MacKay should never have openly attacked the credibility of a senior public servant, Richard Colvin, who had warned back in 2006 that Afghans captured by Canadian troops were being tortured by Afghan jailors.
The Defence Minister absolutely should not still have his job, after insisting that there was no credible evidence of such torture in 2006, only for evidence to emerge this week so compelling that even Chief of Defence Staff Walter Natynczyk admitted yesterday it proves abuse occurred.
But while Stephen Harper did not explicitly confirm his confidence in Mr. MacKay in the House yesterday, it is somewhere past unlikely that he will ask his Defence Minister to step down. The reasons for this are threefold:
First, Afghan detainees, even innocent ones, are not sympathetic people. And this government's popularity hasn't suffered even though there is compelling evidence that our mission in Afghanistan is a failure - for all the bravery of our troops, there were too few of them to secure their sector from Taliban infiltration, which is why the Americans now plan to flood that sector with their own forces.
Most voters appear to have concluded that the effort was noble, even if the results have been disappointing. Detainee abuse is not, and never will be, a ballot question.
Second, the timing is starting to work in the government's favour. Parliament rises for its Christmas break at the end of the week, and doesn't return until late January. Some convenient votes in the House short-circuited the efforts of a parliamentary committee to grill Mr. MacKay along with Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon. The opposition majority may be able to keep the committee functioning, but the truth is the holiday season and the January break are the government's best friends right now.
Third, and most important, Peter MacKay is a partner in the Conservative coalition. Don't forget that this government is in office only because Mr. MacKay agreed to merge his Progressive Conservatives with Mr. Harper's Canadian Alliance back in 2003. Firing Mr. MacKay would split the party. And with his deep Atlantic roots, the Conservatives wouldn't have a safe seat in Atlantic Canada if the member for Central Nova were forced out of cabinet.
So unless something new and very large comes to light, Mr. MacKay is safe.
A public inquiry is also highly unlikely, despite opposition demands for one. Not only would it prolong a story that the government believes will eventually go away, such an inquiry would vindicate opposition accusations of incompetence and covering up.
The Conservatives might, instead, revive the Military Police Complaints Commission investigation of the charges, which they have previously tried to stymie.
Something has to be done about these charges of abuse. The MPCC is arguably the best forum for investigating them.
This government's best asset is its own cussedness. Liberals want to be seen as virtuous; they want people to think they believe in human rights - even the rights of those who quite possibly tried to kill our own soldiers.
But nobody believes Stephen Harper or Peter MacKay has ever lost an hour's sleep over what might have been going on in Afghan prisons. Anyway, it was three years ago. We fixed it in 2007. Move along.
Objectively, the abuse of Afghan detainees is hugely important. Canadian soldiers and officials might have been complicit in violating the Geneva Conventions. Their political masters were cavalier, at best, or negligent, at worst, in how they handled the matter. Heads should roll.
But politically, this is an issue that doesn't resonate outside Ottawa. The revelations haven't moved the polls. The Liberals are in what is turning into typical disarray. Firing Mr. MacKay is the one thing Mr. Harper could do that would undermine his own party while helping to unify his opponents.
You think Stephen Harper is nuts?
“Something has to be done” ... Yes, indeed! But Ibbitson doesn’t go far enough.
There needs to be some formal, legal answers to the questions:
1. Why were the provisions for detainee handling and transfer so weak until 2007?
2. What were the options, from 2002 until 2006? The Americans? NATO? A Canadian “cage?” The Afghans?
3. Who made these decisions?
4. Why were detainees handed over to the Afghans, at all? It appears that there was a well founded knowledge, within the Government of Canada, that the Afghans were quite unable
to exercise their responsibilities under international law?
The issue is much, much deeper than “who knew what and when?” That’s a very local, inside the Queensway, question that means nothing to most Canadians. But Paul Dewar and Ujal Dosanjh have both suggested that ministers and officials and generals are war criminals. If something is not done to put those charges to rest then we may know, for certain, that someone like Amir Attaran or Michael Byers*will try to move the issue to the International Criminal Court on the basis that, under Article 17 of the ICC’s charter (The Rome Statute), Canada has not investigated the matter.
To date, the ICC has done nothing to suggest that it intends to deviate from its legal mandate, but that has not prevented a mob of disparate groups and individuals from using the ICC as a backdrop for political theatre. Threats are continuously made, by these mobs, against countries and leaders. That the threats are groundless and meaningless does not stop the media from trumpeting them and, in the process, blackening names, tarnishing reputations and reducing a country’s global political capital.
I don’t know what level of investigation is sufficient; the ICC will, I guess, be satisfied with almost anything; folks like Attaran, Byers* et al are unlikely to be satisfied with anything except a full blown judicial inquiry into detainees, the entire Afghan mission, Conservative foreign policy and the evil USA.
But: I think Ibbitson has the politics right: this is issue will compel neither MacKay’s resignation nor a judicial inquiry and the timing (Xmas) works in the government’s favour.
But: sooner or later Canada will have to find a way to answer some fundamental questions about how we, any nation, for that matter, prosecutes 21st century wars (à la Afghanistan) within the constraint of 19th century ideals.
---------------
* I have no idea what Profs. Attaran and Byers might do but they have been, publicly, active and vocal on this issue so they provide a useful example of the sorts of qualified, credible people who might want to use tools like the ICC to advance their views.