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A scary strategic problem - no oil

Since we need to get rid of garbage anyway, this offers a chance to get some "value added" benefits out of garbage disposal. The end of ineffective "Blue Box" programs is a financial benefit for hard pressed civic budgets as well. I am somewhat dubious of the numbers, but even if it is close it is worth looking at:

http://www.erwingerrits.com/?p=637

Ottawa company Plasco Energy Group has a patent-pending WTE (Waste to Energy) system called Plasma Gasification (I’ve written about them before here and my subsequent brush with fame). From the Plasco site:

    The MSW stream enters the conversion chamber where the waste is converted into a crude syngas using recycled heat. The crude syngas that is produced flows to the refinement chamber where plasma torches are used to refine the gas into a cleaner syngas, known as PlascoSyngas. This is sent through a Gas Quality Control Suite to recover sulphur, remove acid gases and segregate heavy metals found in the waste stream. The result is a clean, energetic PlascoSyngas created from the conversion of waste with no air emissions.

    PlascoSyngas is used to fuel internal combustion engines that efficiently generate electricity. Waste heat recovered from the engines is combined with waste heat recovered from cooling the PlascoSyngas in a Heat Recovery Steam Generation (HRSG) unit to produce steam. The steam can either be used to generate additional electricity using a turbine (combined cycle generation), or it can be used for industrial processes or district heating (cogeneration).

    The solid residue from the conversion chamber is sent to a separate high temperature Carbon Recovery Vessel (CRV) equipped with a plasma torch where the solids are melted. Plasma heat is used to stabilize the solids and convert any remaining volatile compounds and fixed carbon into crude syngas. This additional crude syngas is fed back into the conversion chamber. Any remaining solids are then melted into a liquid slag and cooled into small slag pellets. The slag pellets are an inert vitrified residue sold as construction aggregate.

So what?

In my view, we can use this process across Canada to:

  1. Stimulate the economy
  2. Reduce polluting landfill sites
  3. Cancel all costly and non-working recycling programs
  4. Reduce our dependency on oil and coal
  5. Reduce CO2 and methane emissions (if that’s important to you)
  6. Create new jobs
  7. Generate more power cleanly

Show me some numbers!

Canada uses about 530B KWh a year (2006 est.) of electricity, generated by the following:

    fossil fuel: 28%
    hydro: 57.9%
    nuclear: 12.9%
    other: 1.3% (2001)

Lets take out the hydro and nuclear/other portion of this number, since they are clean, renewable and profitable energy sources. Let’s focus on fossil fuel energy alone:

    28% of 530B KWh = about 150B KWh.

Plasco can generate 1.2 MWh = 1200 KWh from every tonne of waste converted:

    150B KWh / 1200 = 125 MT of waste required to generate 150B KWh.

    125 MT per year, that’s 342,000 tonnes per day. To process that amount of garbage, Plasco needs to build 342,000 / 400 tonnes/day plants (average size) = 855 average sized plants across Canada.

In other words, in order to retain the status quo in energy production, and to completely eliminate fossil fuel burning to generate energy, we need to build 855 Plasco plants across this nation to process 342,000 tonnes of garbage a day.

Fine, but do we have enough garbage?

Total solid waste production in Canada was 30.4 MT  in 2005 (latest figures available), so not only will we process ALL available garbage generated in Canada today (including all recyclables), we will also start digging into our existing landfill sites at a tune of about 100 MT a year.

The Ottawa Carp Road Landfill site currently holds about 10,000,000 cubic metres of garbage @ 150Kg a cubic meter, makes 15MT of garbage. There are about 800 -10000 (the number varies and is hard to track down) of these landfill sites across Canada, making for (minimum) 800 x 15MT = 12,000 MT or (maximum) 10,000 x 15MT = 150,000 MT available garbage for plasma gasification.

At a required usage of 100 MT/yr, the existing landfills will be emptied in 12,000 MT / 100 MT= 120 years (for 800 sites), or 150,000 MT / 100 MT = 1500 years (for 10000 sites), and that is not counting the new garbage that will be generated in that amount of time, so suffice to say, there’s fuel enough.

So how much is all of this going to cost?

A Plasco plant operates at zero cost to the tax payers. In addition, we will save money by cancelling all current money-losing recycling programs across the country. Plasco is completely funded by private donations and operational revenues. The tipping fee is $40/tonne, about the same as a landfill would charge. Revenues are generated by selling electricity to the power company, and selling the other by-products of the process: potable water, commercial salt, construction aggregate and sulfur agricultural fertilizer . They need, however, a significant investment for each plant to be built.

Is this where the stimulus package comes in?

Yes, a $30B Economic Stimulus package (as currently proposed in the upcoming budget) would provide the needed 855 plants with a start-up capital of over $35M each, more than half of what is needed for initial start up, or we can build 400 plants with full financing. Rather than giving (or “loaning” money to companies who will not be able to pay it back) money to GM/Chrysler/Banks/Credit Cards(!) we can invest the money in a nation-wide garbage to energy strategy, and come out with the following results:

    * create new jobs
    * cancel costly and money-losing (and polluting) recycling programs that don’t work
    * reduce and eliminate costly and polluting landfill sites
    * reduce CO2  & methane (24 MT/yr) from elimination of coal burning plants & landfill sites
    * alternative energy source - less reliance on oil & coal
    * generate power in a energy hungry world

You’re beating a dead horse: we already know all this!

Yes, we do, but governments don’t. And that is where the sad part comes in: governments don’t seem to be on board. In Ontario, environmental laws prohibit permanent installations of this sort: simply because current environmental laws are based on tests done in the early eighties. Back then, testing was done on garbage incinerators (and they would literally burn garbage with no effort to clean up the process) and the emissions were deemed to be too high (no kidding). There have not been any testing done since. Plasco’s unique Plasma Gasification process WITH NO EMISSIONS still falls under “Garbage Incineration” and as such is deemed to be too polluting. Plasco can only get a “testing facility” license from the Government of Ontario and as such will not be able to run on full capacity any time soon. I am sure similar practises are going on across this country.

Governments need to get on board and realise these new technologies not only “help reduce garbage” but also create jobs, clean up the air, generate more power, stop ground pollution, and lessens our reliance on fossil fuels.

Time has come to fast track these technologies, make the laws compatible, pour some ’stimulus’ money into it, and get goin’!
 
So where is this oil coming from anyway? n interactive map from Technology Review:

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/22474/

Map Reveals a Web of Oil Imports
A new interactive map unveils the details of an oil addiction.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
By Kevin Bullis
Credit: Rocky Mountain Institute

For an illuminating look at the web of oil imports that we depend on, check out this interactive Google Maps-based infographic at the Rocky Mountain Institute, an organization that promotes technology for energy efficiency.

The map features a timeline starting in 1973. As a cursor moves along the timeline (click the "play" button to automate the cursor's movement, or control the movement yourself by clicking and dragging the cursor), the world map above it changes, showing how much oil is flowing to the United States, and from which countries. Changing a setting (under "Map Units" in the left column, select "Dollars") shows how much money is flowing out of the United States, and to where. You can select a specific oil crisis (buttons below the timeline) to see the segment of the timeline related to that crisis.

You can also click a button (left column, "ANWR") to see the size of the potential oil flow from the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge. When oil consumption was low in the late 1980s, after the oil crisis of that era triggered a massive drop in consumption, it looks substantial. But in 2008, it looks vanishingly small.

One of the most salient things illustrated by the map is just how long oil prices stayed low after the oil crisis of the late 1970s: long enough for people to forget the lessons of that crisis and start buying big, heavy cars again, and get truly addicted to oil.

(tech trouble today: fo to link to see map)
 
This seems to be about the ultimate DIY solution:

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/22496/?nlid=1690

A Dirt-Bag Fuel Cell
A simple microbial fuel cell could offer reliable power in the developing world.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
By Kristina Grifantini

A startup that is striving to bring energy to countries that lack reliable power has developed a remarkably simple new microbial fuel-cell design: grain bags, stuffed with metal and dirt. Lebônê, a startup based at Harvard University, has already shown how to make fuel cells from buckets full of wastewater, with a graphite cloth as the anode and chicken wire as the cathode. In this setup, bacteria extract electrons from organic waste at the anode to generate small amounts of power--enough to charge, say, a flashlight or cell phone.

A contact at the company tells me that the bags work pretty much the same way, but they should be even easier to make and more portable than the bucket design. What's more, owners can bury the bags in the yard, so that they are undisturbed and out of the way. They can even link several of the bags together--in series or in parallel--to increase the voltage or the electrode area, respectively.

The bags are fairly ubiquitous across Africa, according to the startup. "They're very familiar to the people there, so it's a natural material to use for something that we want to get widespread acceptance for," says CTO Aviva Pressner. The team is still testing the best materials to use, and it reports that a graphite anode and aluminum cathode combination works well. With funding from a World Bank grant, Lebônê plans to deploy several hundred bags in Namibia this summer and thousands more in 2010.

Tags: fuel cells, microbial fuel cell
 
A look at wind farms:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU9MHNL9AQk

And Premier McGuinty wants to force these things on Ontario regardless of their efficiency or what the local people think
 
The Obama administration plays political theater instead of energy independence:

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/energy/23033/?nlid=1815

Energy Plans Revealed in Obama's Budget Outline

Renewable energy and high-speed rail win; Yucca Mountain project loses.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
By Kevin Bullis

President Obama's budget outline offers some glimpses into what the future holds for energy.

Department of Energy

The stimulus bill allocated $39 billion to the Department of Energy--nearly double last year's budget for the DOE. But that's not all the DOE is getting: the budget outline provides for an additional $34 billion, which will include money for renewable energy, smart-grid projects, and demonstrating technology for capturing and trapping carbon-dioxide emissions.

Nuclear Energy

Of particular note for the nuclear industry is that money for the Yucca Mountain waste program is being scaled back "while the Administration devises a new strategy toward nuclear waste disposal." The controversial program is the result of a promise from the federal government to provide storage for nuclear waste. It's not surprising that the program is getting the ax: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is from Nevada, where Yucca Mountain is located.

Here's what Reid had to say today: "I have worked for more than two decades with help from our state's leaders and thousands of Nevadans to stop Yucca Mountain. President Obama recognizes that the proposed dump threatens the health and safety of Nevadans, and millions of Americans. His commitment to stop this terrible project could not be clearer."

Transportation

The budget will provide additional support for high-speed rail: "To provide Americans a 21st Century transportation system, the Administration proposes a $1 billion-a-year high-speed rail State grant program, in addition to the $8 billion provided in the recovery Act."

Climate Change

One of the biggest potential incentives for increased renewable energy would be a price on carbon-dioxide emissions. The budget outline provides some details about Obama's plans for a cap-and-trade system for reducing such emissions "14 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, and approximately 83 percent below 2005 levels by 2050." Emissions allotments will be auctioned off, with the proceeds going to fund alternative energy and help poor people who will be affected by the higher energy prices that such a program would cause. The cap-and-trade plan is not part of the budget, but it will be next on Obama's agenda after the budget is passed.
 
Back to technology. If this sort of battery proves to be practical, the more practical use is to even out power production and consumption. Baseload systems can be run at max power and efficiency, storing electrical energy in these batteries during off peak hours and discharging them during peak demand. Alternatively, customers can charge up during off hours and avoid paying peak hour rates...

Not to sure I would want to use this in a mobile application though

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22116/

TR10: Liquid Battery
Donald Sadoway conceived of a novel battery that could allow cities to run on solar power at night.
By Kevin Bullis

Without a good way to store electricity on a large scale, solar power is useless at night. One promising storage option is a new kind of battery made with all-liquid active materials. Prototypes suggest that these liquid batteries will cost less than a third as much as today's best batteries and could last significantly longer.

The battery is unlike any other. The electrodes are molten metals, and the electrolyte that conducts current between them is a molten salt. This results in an unusually resilient device that can quickly absorb large amounts of electricity. The electrodes can operate at electrical currents "tens of times higher than any [battery] that's ever been measured," says Donald Sadow­ay, a materials chemistry professor at MIT and one of the battery's inventors. What's more, the materials are cheap, and the design allows for simple manufacturing.

The first prototype consists of a container surrounded by insulating material. The researchers add molten raw materials: antimony on the bottom, an electrolyte such as sodium sulfide in the middle, and magnesium at the top. Since each material has a different density, they naturally remain in distinct layers, which simplifies manufacturing. The container doubles as a current collector, delivering electrons from a power supply, such as solar panels, or carrying them away to the electrical grid to supply electricity to homes and businesses.

As power flows into the battery, magnesium and antimony metal are generated from magnesium antimonide dissolved in the electrolyte. When the cell discharges, the metals of the two electrodes dissolve to again form magnesium antimonide, which dissolves in the electrolyte, causing the electrolyte to grow larger and the electrodes to shrink (see above).

Sadoway envisions wiring together large cells to form enormous battery packs. One big enough to meet the peak electricity demand in New York City--about 13,000 megawatts--would fill nearly 60,000 square meters. Charging it would require solar farms of unprecedented size, generating not only enough electricity to meet daytime power needs but enough excess power to charge the batteries for nighttime demand. The first systems will probably store energy produced during periods of low electricity demand for use during peak demand, thus reducing the need for new power plants and transmission lines.

Many other ways of storing energy from intermittent power sources have been proposed, and some have been put to limited use. These range from stacks of lead-acid batteries to systems that pump water uphill during the day and let it flow back to spin generators at night. The liquid battery has the advantage of being cheap, long-lasting, and (unlike options such as pumping water) useful in a wide range of places. "No one had been able to get their arms around the problem of energy storage on a massive scale for the power grid," says Sadoway. "We're literally looking at a battery capable of storing the grid."

Since creating the initial prototypes, the researchers have switched the metals and salts used; it wasn't possible to dissolve magnesium antimonide in the electrolyte at high concentrations, so the first prototypes were too big to be practical. (Sadowa­y won't identify the new materials but says they work along the same principles.) The team hopes that a commercial version of the battery will be available in five years.
 
Canada will be sitting pretty:

http://www.dobmagazine.nickles.com/printer.asp?article=profiler%2F090112%2FPRO2009_JC0002.html

The Saskatchewan Advantage
Technology Unlocks Bakken Potential In Saskatchewan
By Elsie Ross

For more than 100 years, the endless prairie of southeastern Saskatchewan was identified with agriculture: the vast wheat fields which helped to feed a hungry world.

Today, thanks to new technologies, that once-quiet corner of the province is helping to meet the insatiable global demand for a different commodity: sweet light crude oil, which at 41 degrees api is about as good as it gets.

In the past four years, the Bakken formation has become synonymous with Canada's hottest new oil play and has rejuvenated service centres such as Estevan and Weyburn. And while the Saskatchewan government acknowledges it could see a reduction in activity with the recent collapse in the price of oil, it is still optimistic about the prospects for next year.

"It clearly is an exceptional find and there is definitely opportunity yet," said Bill Boyd, Saskatchewan's energy and resources minister. The high-quality oil combined with high oil prices and success with new technology set off a land sale buying binge in the southeast over the past two years. Bonus payments to the province soared over the first 10 months of 2008 to $876 million on 443,023 hectares of rights sold in the southeast, up from $180 million over the same period in 2007 and only $73 million in 2006.

Another 172 parcels in southeastern Saskatchewan were on offer in the December 8 Crown land sale and it was likely many of those were prospective for the Bakken, he suggested.

The Saskatchewan government also has been noticing that the reach of the play has been expanding, primarily to the west and south. That isn't surprising as the earliest Bakken development was in the Montana and North Dakota portions of the Williston Basin, which extends north into southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.

Considered an extensive regional resource play, the Bakken is a "tight" oil play with the oil contained mostly in siltstone and thin sandstone reservoirs with low porosity and permeability that require extensive fracture stimulation before yielding their treasure.

A recent (April 2008) United States Geological Survey assessment estimated that the Bakken formation in Montana and North Dakota holds between three and 4.3 billion bbls of undiscovered, technically-recoverable oil - up from the agency's 1995 estimate of 151 million bbls. How much of that is economical to recover will be known over time.

With an estimated 25% of the 500,000- square-kilometre Williston Basin in Saskatchewan, there could be an estimated 25 billion to 100 billion bbls of Bakken oil in place in the province, according to Ed Dancsok, director of the geology and petroleum lands branch for the Saskatchewan Ministry of Energy and Resources. The big question mark, though, is whether the Bakken is evenly distributed throughout the basin, he acknowledged.

The first commercially successful Bakken wells were established in 2000 at the Elm Coulee oilfield in Richland County, Montana, and within three years the state's oil production had doubled. The story is similar in North Dakota where the Bakken continues to attract strong interest from operators. By the end of 2007, about 105 million bbls of oil had been produced from the Mississippian-aged Bakken.

In Saskatchewan, Bakken wells at Viewfield were drilled in 2004 by Bison Resources Ltd. The company was acquired by Mission Oil & Gas Inc., which was in turn acquired by Crescent Point Energy Trust, currently one of the three major players in the Bakken (along with TriStar Oil & Gas Ltd. and Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd.).

Advances in horizontal well techniques that offer maximum exposure to the reservoir, coupled with the application of new fracturing and completion technologies, have been the key to unlocking the economics of the Bakken. Petrobank pioneered the use of the Packers Plus StackFrac system, which has become the industry standard in the Canadian Bakken.

"I'd say the single biggest thing has been the whole StackFrac concept, which is the driving force behind placing the proppant and the frac fluid in exactly the right spot and in exactly the right proportions in the exact right pressure that maximizes the hole you have open," John Wright, Petrobank's chief executive officer, said in a recent interview with Nickle's New Technology Magazine. "The impact on the economics is suddenly we could drill wells and complete them essentially for the same capital investment that we used to be making but they came out at much better initial flow rates and, in particular, much lower initial water cuts."

As of mid-October, Saskatchewan had 1,050 wells capable of producing in the Bakken. Of these, the vast majority (979) have been drilled since October 2004. Over the first eight months of 2008, the Bakken accounted for about 8.6 million bbls (an average of 35,250 bbls a day) of Saskatchewan's oil production of 105.7 million bbls (approximately 434,000 bbls a day).

In 2007, operators drilled 292 Bakken wells (269 horizontal and 23 vertical). To mid- November of this year, about 600 wells targeting the Bakken had been drilled. Although a breakdown isn't yet available, the vast majority would have been horizontal wells, according to a government spokesman.

Operators such as TriStar, with current production from the Bakken of more than 4,700 BOE per day, are continuing to focus on improving potential primary recovery factors in the play. In the second and third quarters of this year, the company drilled several shorter horizontal wells (approximately 600 metres compared to 1,400 metres for full-length horizontals), while continuing to fracture stimulate the wells using the same number of fracs as full-length wells. This technique reduces the inter-fracture distance and increases effective reservoir contact per metre of horizontal wellbore. Early production results from these shorter length wells are very encouraging with initial production very similar to what would be expected from longer-length horizontal wells, according to the company.

TriStar has drilled 10 (6.5 net) of the shorterlength wells with the oldest on production for more than eight months.

TriStar's current oil reserve booking is based on a recovery factor of 1.1% of the estimated net total original oil in place. Achieving a primary recovery factor of 12.5% consisting of four wells per section at current average reserve engineer bookings would yield up to 70.5 million bbls of additional recoverable oil to its current booked reserves, the company has calculated.

TriStar has set a $285-million budget for 2009, of which two-thirds will be spent in southeast Saskatchewan including $165 million for the Bakken. Spending will include construction of key infrastructure to support the company's significant development plans for the area. TriStar has more than 235 (155 net) sections of development and exploration lands on which it has identified more than 813 (549 net) Bakken drilling locations.

Crescent Point's Bakken technical team conservatively expects over time it could achieve a 15% recovery factor on primary production, based on detailed simulation work that suggests up to 19% recovery with infill drilling at eight wells per section. Crescent Point, with its privatelyheld offshoot Shelter Bay Energy, holds about 600 sections of land in the play, making it the largest landholder in the Bakken.

Another option is enhanced recovery with water or carbon dioxide (CO2) floods. Crescent Point is in the early stages of determining how best to apply water and/or CO2 flooding to the formation with the objective of increasing its recovery rate to as much as 25-30%.

While the major players staked out their claims fairly early, the Bakken also is seeing a growing number of smaller companies eager to get in the game. Medicine Hat-based Reece Exploration Corp. is exploring the edges of the play, to the west and north of the heart of the play at Viewfield.

In the third quarter, it drilled two (one net) wells with the final exploratory well drilled in its Montmartre play currently undergoing testing. Reece's first delineation well was drilled in the Bemersyde area (near its first successful Bakken exploratory well), and initial test results are positive.

The company acquired an additional 1,920 (960 net) acres of land in the October land sale, increasing its land position in the Bemersyde play to 7,680 (3,840 net) acres. Additional delineation wells are planned to establish the pool extent after all testing and fracturing is complete and production has been established for the existing wells.

Reece has also participated in Bakken wells in the Forget field and is part of a four-well project in the Stoughton area. Another new entrant, privately-held Wild River Resources with partner TriAxon Resources Ltd., is working on the new Greater Flat Lake play, just north of the United States border at 15-14-01-16 W2M. "We think we've got a relatively significant discovery that will extend a new Bakken play over a township and a half to two townships," said Neil Roszell, Wild River's president and chief executive officer. "We're quite encouraged by this one."

Vancouver-based Ryland Oil Corporation has recently begun the transition from Bakken exploration to development following a multi-well drilling program in the Roncott area. Its first Bakken well has come on production at rates of 90 bbls of oil per day to 120 bbls a day with a current oil cut of 45%. The company has also conducted an evaluation program of the Bakken to the southeast and has identified a number of areas in which it will continue to focus its drilling.

TriAxon has farmed in on Ryland's land and is to begin drilling the first of three earning wells, the Hoffer 13-33-1-14 W2M horizontal well in the southeast corner of Ryland's acreage, by mid-December.

And while the Bakken still accounts for only about eight per cent of Saskatchewan's oil production, Boyd is confident it has nowhere to go but up as operators continue to find new ways to increase recovery rates and newcomers continue to push the boundaries of the play. "Absolutely, it's great for the province," he says.
 
Synthetic photosynthesis, the ultimate solution. No word on the efficiency (and remember plants have a very low conversion efficiency):

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/006019.html

Nanotubes For Photocatalysis Produce Methane

A cheap synthetic system that works better than plant photosynthesis for producing hydrocarbons from carbon dioxide, water, and sunlight might some day provide a great source of energy. Toward that end some Penn State researchers have advanced the state of the art for light-driven methane generation using titania nanotubes. I love to see this kind of advance.

    Dual catalysts may be the key to efficiently turning carbon dioxide and water vapor into methane and other hydrocarbons using titania nanotubes and solar power, according to Penn State researchers.

    Burning fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal release large amounts of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. Rather than contribute to global climate change, producers could convert carbon dioxide to a wide variety of hydrocarbons, but this makes sense to do only when using solar energy.

    "Recycling of carbon dioxide via conversion into a high energy-content fuel, suitable for use in the existing hydrocarbon-based energy infrastructure, is an attractive option, however the process is energy intense and useful only if a renewable energy source can be used for the purpose," the researchers note in a recent issue of Nano Letters.

    Craig A. Grimes, professor of electrical engineering and his team used titanium dioxide nanotubes doped with nitrogen and coated with a thin layer of both copper and platinum to convert a mixture of carbon dioxide and water vapor to methane. Using outdoor, visible light, they reported a 20-times higher yield of methane than previously published attempts conducted in laboratory conditions using intense ultraviolet exposures.

This is still a laboratory-level advance. Industrial field use is still years away. But it is the sort of advance that could eventually provide a way to suck large amounts of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. Further enhancements to make longer chain hydrocarbons could yield synthetic hydrocarbon liquids for transportation.

One of the advantages of a synthetic replacement for photosynthesis is the ability to operate for a larger fraction of the year. March 21 and September 21 are halfway points between the shortest and longest days of the year. In the northern hemisphere March 21's photons drive far less photosynthesis than September 21's photons because plants are still in frozen state in the more northern areas (with a similar pattern in the southern hemisphere with swapped dates for spring and fall starts). The late winter and early spring photons could be harnessed sooner in a synthetic system that didn't require plant growth to create areas for capturing the photons. Also, a synthetic system could cover ground which currently can't support much plant life.

A synthetic system built to float far out to sea could absorb photons and do synthesis over area of the ocean that are too nutrient poor to support much microbial life. While such installations are too expensive today in the future nanoassemblers will drastically reduce the cost of construction of massive floating solar collecting synthetic hydrocarbon production ships.

Update: To clarify: Methane is a far more potent atmospheric warmer than carbon dioxide. So a synthetic methane synthesizer with a big leak in it would warm the planet. In fact, if one wanted to, say, prevent an ice age then synthetic methane producers with their output vented to the atmosphere would be one way to do it. On the other hand, if one's photochemical hydrocarbon synthesizer produced longer chain liquid hydrocarbons (gotta be longer than Hank Hill's propane in order to remain liquid) then the atmospheric warming risk would be eliminated. Since the longer chain hydrocarbons are far more desirable for transportation a method for generating them would be ideal.
 
Fusion still has a long way to go. 

There are generally two types of reactors: Both of these methods have problems with energy collection and Tritium recycling.  Neutron flux turns the reactor cores brittle and useless (not to mention the entire area is then highly radioactive), so Tokamaks must also get around the issue of interchangeable cores and housings, or find a material that can handle heavy neutron bombardment (easier said than done). 

Lasers must also be hardy enough to withstand the intense thermal and neutron fluxes associated with fusion.  A bigger issue with laser systems is problems with timing all of the lasers to pulse at the same instant with the same intensity for maximum collapse.  If they are not coordinated, you will get non symmetrical implosions which will botch the ignition. The system has to run at ultrafast speeds- so fast that it is impossible to measure the pulse through traditional methods, and must be coordinated through an elaborate system of interferometric autocorrelators (tricky given the harsh environment).    The fuel pellets must also be incredibly spherical: any deviation and the trial is toast. 

As you can see, this isn't exactly a walk in the park.  By comparison, fission is a breeze.  Even dancing angels on the head of a pin doesn't even come close to the accuracy/timing necessary to pull this off.  Fortunately, optics and magnetic field manipulation have come a long way, but I can't really say which system will even be commercially viable; there's a lot of problems left to address.

Expect to wait several decades before seeing commercial fusion reactors.  Anybody who tells you otherwise is cookoo.
 
If ten years ago someone told me that I would be able to fit a thousand full length movies into a doodad the size of my wallet, I would have thought them cuckoo.  Technology is advancing on a logarithmic curve it would seem. 
 
zipperhead_cop said:
If ten years ago someone told me that I would be able to fit a thousand full length movies into a doodad the size of my wallet, I would have thought them cuckoo.  Technology is advancing on a logarithmic curve it would seem.

Ten years ago you could do that.  Granted, it would cost you, but magnetic storage devices (Even large platter drives) are nothing new.  This isn't about miniaturizing current tech either.  This is far, far, far more complicated.

P.S.: Logarithmic advancement would probably be a bad thing.
 
Many types of fusion reactors are possible in theory besides Tokamacs and laser Inertial Confinement. A company called EMC2 seems furthest along with a process called Inertial Electrostatic Confinement, but others exist as well, such as Canada's own General Fusion. I suspect there will be a real surprise that does not come from a government lab.

As for technological advancements, we are advancing exponentially in many areas. There are lots of possibilities, good, bad and in between (and even good and bad might be situational). Technology is a tool, the intention is with the user.
 
Thucydides said:
Many types of fusion reactors are possible in theory besides Tokamacs and laser Inertial Confinement. A company called EMC2 seems furthest along with a process called Inertial Electrostatic Confinement,

You are right; there is more than the two ways I mentioned to yield fusion.  To be fair, I said they were the most common ways.  I also didn't mention Magnetized Fusion Targetting which probably has an even larger following than IEC.  Unfortunately IEC has a truly spotted history.  To say that it has definitively produced net power (experimentally or theoretically) yet would be generous.  The polywell also lacks any peer-reviewed scientific literature to support its claims. Until it can do so (experimentally or theoretically), I will remain highly guarded.

With regards to EmC^2 specifically: they have a very suspect history.  And when I say "they", I really mean "that one dead guy" because it was just one dude and he died last year.  To be fair, the work was picked up in late 2007 by someone who seems to be playing the game straight.  I can't say the same for his predecessor: almost all of the man's research is self-citing, he ignores peer review criticisms in respectable journals (even though he wasn't completely gagged by NDA's), and he failed to secure funding by 2006, which made his research dead in the water.  Here's where I get a little miffed though: he took to promoting that he was the recipient of the International Academy of Science Outstanding Technology of the Year award (2006).  The problem I have with that is it was from a fake International Academy of Science.  So he loses funding at the end of FY05 and then in 2006 he suddenly happens to win a bogus award from a bogus institution that he happens to be a paid member of and then goes on an press spree to promote it?  ???  At first glance, that can look pretty bad. 

For the record, the real IAS is a fellowship; you have to be invited in and they don't do tech awards either.  If there's one thing I can't stand, it's scientists with questionable integrity.  Time will tell if the new guy can play by the rules a bit better.  He is working under some seriously strapped financials though.  You may think I'm being Mr. negative, but if it works, I will be just as ecstatic as the next dude.  Probably more actually.  I'm not gonna deny though that I have some lingering doubts.



...others exist as well, such as Canada's own General Fusion.
I suspect there will be a real surprise that does not come from a government lab.

I have a few friends that work with D-wave and they let me on to this company a while ago.  I am really interested in how their next reactor will fare.  If that one succeeds in breaking even, then we'll have something to write about.  Los Alamos is doing a ton of research on these smaller MFT reactors as it is relatively cheap to fund. Fortunately for General Fusion they have lots of friends in high places, so they should have a lot more money than the 1.3 million that EMC^2 was given.  Still, this is new tech and the nuclear regulatory bodies are pretty strict with the whole experimental reactor thing. 

I'm expecting slow progress.  Funding, theoretical hurdles and strict regulatory requirements make me think two decades minimum before anything remotely resembling a serviceable reactor rears its head.

 
I remain sceptical (extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof), but it is always worth keeping an open eye:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20090323/sc_livescience/newhopeforcontroversialcoldfusionpowersource

New Hope for Controversial 'Cold Fusion' Power Source
       
LiveScience.com Livescience Staff

livescience.com – Mon Mar 23, 2:56 pm ETIf cold fusion can be made to work, it could power the world cheaply on a virtually limitless supply of seawater. But scientists don't even know if it's possible.

Now a new study has produced evidence for the existence of low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR), the new name for the controversial process labeled "cold fusion" two decades ago.

Fusion is the energy source of the sun and other stars. It occurs when atomic nuclei are combined. Today's nuclear plants employ fission, the splitting of nuclei. Scientists have been striving for decades to tap fusion to produce electricity from an abundant fuel called deuterium that can be extracted from seawater. Fusion would not come with the radioactive byproducts of fission.

At a meeting of the American Chemical Society, the scientists described today what they claim is the first clear visual evidence that LENR devices can produce neutrons, subatomic particles that scientists view as tell-tale signs that nuclear reactions are occurring.

In all, 30 papers on the topic will be presented at the meeting this week as part of a 20th anniversary nod to the first description of cold fusion.

Today's announcement was not just a birthday wish, however.

"Our finding is very significant," said chemist Pamela Mosier-Boss of the U.S. Navy's Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SPAWAR) in San Diego, Calif. "To our knowledge, this is the first scientific report of the production of highly energetic neutrons from an LENR device."

The consensus 20 years ago was that fusion would require sophisticated new nuclear reactors able to withstand temperatures of tens of millions of degrees.

Then came first report on cold fusion, presented in 1989 by Martin Fleishmann and Stanley Pons. They claimed to achieve nuclear fusion at comparatively "cold" room temperatures - in a simple tabletop laboratory device termed an electrolytic cell. But other scientists could not reproduce their results, and the whole field of research declined.

Some scientists persisted, however, seeking solid evidence that nuclear reactions can occur at low temperatures, as explained in a statement today from the American Chemical Society. One of their problems involved extreme difficulty in using conventional electronic instruments to detect the small number of neutrons produced in the process.

In the new study, Mosier-Boss and colleagues inserted an electrode composed of nickel or gold wire into a solution of palladium chloride mixed with deuterium or "heavy water" in a process called co-deposition. A single atom of deuterium contains one neutron and one proton in its nucleus.

Researchers passed electric current through the solution, causing a reaction within seconds, according to the statement. The scientists then used a special plastic, CR-39, to capture and track any high-energy particles that may have been emitted during reactions, including any neutrons emitted during the fusion of deuterium atoms.

At the end of the experiment, they examined the plastic with a microscope and discovered patterns of "triple tracks," tiny-clusters of three adjacent pits that appear to split apart from a single point. The researchers say that the track marks were made by subatomic particles released when neutrons smashed into the plastic.

Importantly, Mosier-Boss and colleagues believe that the neutrons originated in nuclear reactions, perhaps from the combining or fusing deuterium nuclei.

"People have always asked 'Where's the neutrons?'" Mosier-Boss said. "If you have fusion going on, then you have to have neutrons. We now have evidence that there are neutrons present in these LENR reactions."

They cited other evidence for nuclear reactions including X-rays, tritium (another form of hydrogen), and excess heat. Meanwhile, Mosier-Boss and colleagues are continuing to explore the phenomenon to get a better understanding of exactly how LENR works, which is key to being able to control it for practical purposes.

Mosier-Boss points out that the field currently gets very little funding and, despite its promise, researchers can't predict when, or if, LENR may emerge from the lab with practical applications. The U.S. Department of the Navy and JWK International Corporation in Annandale, Va., funded the study.

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Original Story: New Hope for Controversial 'Cold Fusion' Power Source

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Green jobs are going to save us all right......

http://brainwaveweb.com/forum/showthread.php?p=108675&#post108675

It has been a while since there has been a discussion of energy policy so I thought I would throw this out in hopes of getting Bob to focus a Diavlog along this line.

It seems that Spain, President Obama's favorite example of countries doing energy po0licy correctly, has just come out with a study looking at how well their policy is working. It has some really interesting data. To highlight just a couple of the salient points.

Quote:
2. Optimistically treating European Commission partially funded data1, we find that for every renewable energy job that the State manages to finance, Spain’s experience cited by President Obama as a model reveals with high confidence, by two different methods, that the U.S. should expect a loss of at least 2.2 jobs on average, or about 9 jobs lost for every 4 created, to which we have to add those jobs that non-subsidized investments with the same resources would have created. 

Quote:
7. The study calculates that since 2000 Spain spent €571,138 to create each “green job”, including subsidies of more than €1 million per wind industry job. (Interpolation, the generally accepted figure for creating a full time job through priovate investment is @ $50,000, lov\wer by a factor of 10

Quote:
8. The study calculates that the programs creating those jobs also resulted in the destruction of nearly 113,000 jobs elsewhere in the economy, or 2.2 jobs destroyed for every “green job” created 

Quote:
14 The price of a comprehensive energy rate (paid by the end consumer) in Spain would have to be increased 31% to being to repay the historic debt generated by this rate deficit mainly produced by the subsidies to renewables, according to Spain’s energy regulator. 

I haven't gotten past the executive study yet but it looks to be interesting reading.
 
After the oil sands are gone, we can go for the oil shale:

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22403/?nlid=1931

A Cheaper Way to Draw Oil from Shale
A new heater cable lowers the cost of separating oil-like fluid from rock.
By Tyler Hamilton

A new ceramic-composite material that can withstand high temperatures and constant exposure to moisture could provide an economical way to unlock America's vast oil-shale deposits.

U.S. oil-shale resources hold three times as much crude oil as the whole of Saudi Arabia. But unlike with the gushing fields of the Middle East, extracting oil from shale is like trying to squeeze juice out of frozen lemons. Traditionally, the shale has been surface mined like coal and heated until an oil-like substance called kerogen turns to liquid and oozes out. But this is an expensive, energy-hungry, and carbon-intensive approach that, like much of the extraction happening in Canada's controversial oil sands, is also devastating to the local environment.

More recently, companies such as Royal Dutch Shell have developed ways to tap the oil in situ, by drilling boreholes that are thousands of feet deep and feeding into them inch-thick cables that are heated using electrical resistance and that literally cook the surrounding rock. The kerogen liquefies and gradually pools around an extraction well, where the oil-like fluid can easily be pumped to the surface.

The process involves no mining, uses less water than other approaches, and doesn't leave behind man-made mountains of kerogen-sapped shale. And according to a Rand Corporation study, it can also be done at a third of the cost of mining and surface processing. One technical hitch, however, lies with the heater cable employed. The most common cables used today are insulated with a layer of magnesium oxide, which can deform, degrade, and ultimately short out over time under intense heat, constant exposure to moisture, and the occasional shifting of rock at great depths. Replacement and maintenance can be costly.

Handling such extremes requires "a combination of properties not currently available on the market," says Joe Culver, an official with the Department of Energy (DOE), which considers oil shale vital to America's energy security. In Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah alone, deposits equate to more than 800 billion barrels of recoverable crude.

Composite Technology Development of Lafayette, CO, set out to tackle the cable insulation challenge using a woven ceramic-fiber tape that gets wrapped around copper wiring. The ceramic insulation is a composite material that consists of ceramic fibers and an inorganic ceramic matrix that binds the fibers together. "It's our secret sauce," says executive vice president Mike Tupper, explaining that the fibers can also come braided or in the form of cloth, depending on the application.

The wrapped wire is heated to 150 °C until a resin in the tape hardens the insulation, but the insulation remains flexible for shipping and installation. It's then heated on site to 500 °C, turning it into a solid, durable ceramic coating.

As part of a recent demonstration project under a DOE program, Composite Technology successfully tested its insulated cables for more than 5,000 hours at temperatures ranging from 760 to 850 °C. At these high temperatures, "it has stable electrical properties," says Tupper. "It's not affected by the environment, and it doesn't degrade."

Tupper adds that the cables can also operate under a wide range of voltages and temperatures, and can be manufactured in virtually any length. "There are similar types of materials out there, but we've developed a way to make something that would perform the same way but at a fraction of the cost," Tupper says. "That makes the economics work for the oil and gas industry." He adds that Shell has already evaluated the technology and is showing strong interest.

But even with this breakthrough, some question the wisdom of using electricity to heat up rock just to squeeze more oil out of the planet. Shell claims that its process produces three to seven units of energy for every one unit that's needed for the process.

"Assuming this cable worked, what does that give you?" asks Clement Bowman, a former top scientist at Imperial Oil, who helped lead the development of Canada's oil sands. "Electricity is a high-end electrical product, and using it to recover low-end energy products like kerogen or bitumen will always carry an economic penalty."

Copyright Technology Review 2009.
 
General Fusion update:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/03/general-fusion-research-update.html

Weird as steam driven fusion reactors sound in concept, they have raised @ $7 million in investment funding, so there is the possibility of real progress.
 
More formerly SF concepts coming to the fore:

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/energy/23381/?nlid=1955

Startup to Beam Power from Space
One California utility is taking Solaren Corporation's space-based solar-farm proposal seriously.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
By Kevin Bullis

A startup is trying to generate power in space for use on Earth--an old idea that's never been tried, mostly because it's too expensive, but also because people are concerned that it will fry birds in flight.

One of the biggest long-term challenges with solar power is that it doesn't work well when it's cloudy, and it stops working altogether at night. Most proposed solutions have to do with storing energy from the sun, but a more exotic way around this problem, first proposed in the late 1960s, involves putting the solar panels in space where the sun is always shining. The power would then be beamed to Earth in the form of some sort of electromagnetic waves, likely lasers or microwaves, to a ground-based station that could then deliver power to customers over existing transmission lines. The government has spent $80 million over decades to investigate this approach, but so far no pilot plants have been built.

Now Solaren Corporation, a startup based in Manhattan Beach, CA, is trying to get the idea off the ground. It's working with the California utility Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), which intends to enter into a power-purchase agreement with the company. If the agreement is approved by regulators, starting in 2016, the utility will purchase 200 megawatts of power from Solaren at an undisclosed price--that is, if the startup can get a system into space and working by then. The company has already selected a site in California for the receiving station; it hasn't said exactly where, but it will be close to a PG&E substation and won't require long-distance transmission lines.

Solaren hasn't released many details about the system. CEO Gary Spirnak says that it's conceptually the same as communications satellite technology: it uses solar panels to generate electricity, which gets sent to Earth in the form of radio waves, which are received by antennas on Earth. In a Q & A published by PG&E, he said that the design is "a significant departure from past efforts," so it will be economically feasible. The first system will reportedly be able to generate 1,000 megawatts--about the size of many conventional power plants. The company will need to raise billions of dollars to construct the plant. Right now, it only has 10 employees.

According to a 2007 report (PDF) from the federal government's National Security Space Office, space-based solar is now technically feasible as a result of advances in solar cells and robotics for construction, among other things. But the designs that it considered would be far too expensive for providing the sort of general-purpose, base-load power that Solaren intends to sell. Instead, the government office recommended that the first systems be developed to beam power to troops at forward military bases, since the military can afford to pay a premium. Right now, such bases have to pay an order of magnitude more for their electricity than most customers do. The power could also be used to make synthetic fuels to offset diesel and jet fuel that can cost $20 a gallon in a war zone.

Even then, the report was skeptical about the economic success of the first space-based power plants. The rocket launches alone could be a big problem: the report estimated that building just one power plant would require 120 launches, while the United States only launches about 15 a year (as of 2007). "Even with the [Department of Defense] as an anchor tenant customer at a price of $1-2 per kilowatt hour . . . when considering the risks of implementing a new unproven space technology and other major business risks, the business case for [space-based solar power] still does not appear to be close in 2007 with current capabilities (primarily launch costs)," the report said. (Interpolation: building and launching rockets on an assembly line basis will drive down costs a lot, even with existing technology)

Solaren claims to have addressed these launch costs with its new design. It reportedly can build its first power plant with only four or five launches.

Another common concern is safety. Will beaming down massive amounts of power harm birds or airplanes that cross the path of a beam? Or what if the beam isn't aimed properly and sends its power into the middle of a city? According to the government report, these concerns are unfounded. In the system that it analyzed, the intensity of the beam would be "approximately [one-sixth] of noon sunlight," with the power absorbed over a wide array of antennas. "Because the microwave beams are constant and conversion efficiencies are high, they can be beamed at densities substantially lower than that of sunlight and still deliver more energy per area of land usage than terrestrial solar energy," which by comparison only generates electricity about a quarter of the time, the report said. The intensity would be less than the intensity of microwaves allowed by appliance standards to leak out of microwave ovens. If the beam were to wander over a city, the results would be "anticlimactic," the report said.

But even if Solaren can raise the money it needs and convince people that the system is safe, it could still face opposition from other governments around the world--for example, many governments will be concerned that it could be used as a weapon. "The complexity of negotiating any type of international legal and policy agreements necessary for the development of [space-based solar power] will require significant amounts of time (5-10 years)," the report said.

In the end, because of the many obstacles to the technology, the report recommends that the government build a pilot plant to demonstrate the technology, suggesting that only the government has the resources to make it happen. Later, once the technology is proven and costs for launches come down, it could be economically viable. Solaren seems to think that it's found ways around these problems. It will be interesting to see what they come up with. For now, it's hard to see the agreement with PG&E as more than clever marketing for the company and the utility.
 
More solutions are coming as market forces inspire natural ingenuity. Now we will see if the forces of market demand and economic imperatives can be trumped by political posturing. (Prediction; this administration will throw up roadblocks while India and China commercialize it):

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=914

Human ingenuity beats the neo-Malthusians yet again

OK, this is big news. A research team has worked out a way to nearly triple the efficiency of the Fischer-Tropsch process.

This means cheap synthetic hydrocarbons from coal are on the horizon. It probably sinks shale oil and biofuels for good - which is a good thing, as biofuel demand has been driving food prices higher. Potentially, it could make the U.S. - which has huge coal reserves - independent of foreign oil sources for the forseeable future.

Now watch for it: I [predict that the so-called “environmental movement” will scream in horror at this prospect, and we will learn yet again that they are mostly about enforcing eco-puritan poverty on us all rather than doing anything actually useful about actual ecological problems.
 
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