A More Assertive Japan: Good or Bad for Regional Stability?"

[Colin Parkinson]

I suspect a larger Japanese air Force and navy will be politically more acceptable to it's allied neighbours. The Japanese army would likely not be welcomed that much. 

 

[CougarKing]

Wouldn't the "helicopter destroyers"/ new carriers Hyuga, Ise and Izumo's ASW helo complements already be enough of a threat to Chinese SSNs?

Defense News

Japan Weighs Options To Boost ASW Skills

TOKYO — Japan's growing need to improve its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities to counter quieter Chinese submarines in littoral waters could set off a three-way race between an upgraded indigenous platform against longer-term solutions, analysts said.

Last August, the Defense Ministry decided to start replacing its aging fleet of 46 SH-60J and 39 SH-60K Seahawk helicopters, providing an initial ¥7 billion (US $57.6 million) as part of a ¥48.1 billion development project. The procurement will lead to the deployment of about 80 new helicopters after 2022, MoD spokesman Tsuyoshi Hirata said.

The procurement mentions indigenous development, so it would seem to favor an easy upgrade of the SH-60K produced by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) with more advanced electronics, unless the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) is looking for a longer-term, more advanced solution, said Matthew Caris, an associate at Avascent Group, a Washington-based defense and aerospace consulting group.

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[CougarKing]

Wasn't there already precedent for this with JMSDF oilers doing RAS with NATO/US allied warships in the Indian Ocean/Persian Gulf, etc.?

Reuters

New law to allow Japan to supply U.S. military in South China Sea, say officials
Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:24pm EDT

By Nobuhiro Kubo and Tim Kelly

TOKYO (Reuters) - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plans to expand Japan's non-combat role in armed conflicts beyond "areas around Japan" could see Tokyo becoming dragged into action in the South China Sea in support of U.S. forces, government and ruling party sources say.

Abe will send legislation to parliament next month - with the backing of his coalition partners virtually assuring its passage - allowing Japan to ship fuel and ammunition to American units anywhere, should Tokyo judge its national security to be at stake.

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[CougarKing]

Some kinks in the guidelines that need worked out...

Diplomat

The Dangerous Japan-U.S. Defense Guidelines Revisions

A Japanese opposition leader on what is wrong with the changes to The Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation

The governments of Japan and the United States of America have agreed to revise The Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation for the first time in eighteen years. This revision is extremely problematic both in terms of its actual content and in the way that it is being carried out. First, with regard to the content, the new Guidelines call for “seamless…bilateral responses,” and the section referring to “situations in areas surrounding Japan” included in the previous Guidelines has been deleted. This is a very significant change since it indicates Japan and the United States will be able to undertake joint military action anywhere in the world.

Of course, Japan and the United States need to engage in joint military action for the sake of Japan’s defense and security. I have no intention of denying this fact in itself. However, the deletion of the concept of “situations in areas surrounding Japan,” allows the Self-Defense Forces to be dispatched anywhere in the world, and this clearly violates the Constitution.

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[CougarKing]

More on Japan's recent controversial defence bill from earlier this month:

Defense News

Defense Bill Sparks Uproar in Japan's Diet

TOKYO — There were chaotic scenes inside Japan's normally orderly parliament Wednesday as opposition lawmakers thronged a committee room in an unsuccessful bid to block Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's controversial security bills.

Dozens of politicians held signs protesting against what they said was the "forced" passage of legislation that will bolster the role of Japan's military, in a way they say is anathema to the country's pacifist constitution.

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Plus more about Japan's greater involvement in the South China Sea to support both the US and the Philippines:

Diplomat

Is Japan Becoming a Threat to Peace?
Japan’s entry into the military dimensions of the South China Sea may come to be seen as threat to general peace.

GA
By Greg Austin
July 31, 2015

On 28 July, the Japanese government embarrassed itself by allowing its Ministry of Defence (MoD) to republish in English a grotesque piece of anti-China propaganda which in its lack of sophistication, anti-China bias and cartoonish style is worthy of the worst days of the Soviet Union and its highly discredited series, “Whence the Threat to Peace”.

The MoD document, originally published in Japanese on 29 May, the start date of the ShangriLa Dialogue 2015 in Singapore, is a graphic presentation which contains almost no supporting analysis in prose.  This in itself represents a huge mistake. No foreign ministry taking a careful eye to diplomatic relations with its neighbors would normally rely so heavily on “pictures” for such complex issues. There is some effort at balanced analysis in the fine print, but overall the first graphic is alarmist and seriously misleading. It captures none of the complexity of the history of rival claims and rival military moves.

This ill-considered move by Japan comes after it has begun negotiating with the Philippines on the involvement of Japanese warships in patrols of the South China Sea, after Japan joined the escalating chorus of states making exaggerated claims about a Chinese military threat to commercial shipping in the South China Sea, and after Japan has escalated its own naval construction program.


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[Edward Campbell]

I think Japan must move to support the Philippines and Viet Nam since the USA either cannot or will not. If Japan does not step in China will take it all while Obama hikes up his skirts and tries to tip-toe through the deep water.

 

[daftandbarmy]

If Japan and the US had a Facebook relationship status notification, it would be 'It's complicated':

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/04summer/rapp.pdf

 

[CougarKing]

Japan's Atago class Aegis destroyers being upgraded:

Diplomat

U.S. Approves $1.5 Billion Ballistic Missile Defense Deal With Japan
The weapon deal aims to enhance Tokyo’s capabilities to defend against a ballistic missile attack.

On August 7, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced that the U.S. State Department has approved a possible $1.5 billion sale of two Lockheed Martin Corp Aegis combat systems as well as new anti-submarine warfare equipment to Japan. According to the DSCA press release:

The Government of Japan has requested a possible sale of two (2) ship sets of the MK 7 AEGIS Weapon System, AN/SQQ-89A (v) 15J UWS and CEC. Additional items include associated equipment, training, and support for its Japan Fiscal Year (JFY) 2015 and JFY2016 new construction destroyers (DDGs). The ACS and associated support will be procured over a six (6) to seven (7) year period, as approved by Japan in budgets for JFY2015 and JFY2016.

The weapons deal, likely to be approved by Congress, aims to enhance Japan’s capabilities to defend against a ballistic missile attack. Japan is currently upgrading and modifying all of its Aegis destroyers  (the Kongō-class and Atago-class) with the Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) system.

In November 2013, the Japanese government announced that it would procure two additional Atago-class vessels,  equipped with the Aegis-BMD system, to be commissioned in 2020 and 2021 respectively.

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[CougarKing]

More on Japan's next flight of AEGIS ships: (source link embedded in orange text)

DSCA notification sheds light on next-gen Japanese destroyers

James Hardy, London -
IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
11 August 2015

]The Japanese Ministry of Defense's Equipment Procurement and Construction Office released a schematic in mid-2015
showing the proposed 27DDG Aegis-equipped destroyer, which is believed to be an 8,200-tonne derivative of the Atago-class design.
(Japanese Ministry of Defense)


A graphic included in a request for proposals (RfP) released by the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) to potential shipbuilders in July said that the new class will displace 8,200 tonnes (empty), compared with the Atago class's 7,700 tonnes.

They will feature the AEGIS Weapon System (AWS) MK 7, which includes the Lockheed Martin SPY-1D radar, and supporting systems; AN/SQQ-89 (V) 15 Underwater Surveillance and Communication System; Multi-Function Towed Array (MFTA) and associated OK-410(V)3/SQR handling equipment; MK 41 Vertical Launch System (VLS) and associated systems to support the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) BMD system.

New systems not featured on the Atago class to be provided by the US include the Northrop Grumman AN/SPQ-9B X-band (NATO I-band) pulse-Doppler, frequency-agile fire control radar, which is also being installed on the Royal Australian Navy's Hobart-class air warfare destroyers.

The ships will also feature new anti-ship missiles and as previously reported will be the first JMSDF ships to be powered by a COGLAG configuration. The larger displacement of 8,200 tonnes may reflect plans for advanced weapon systems to be retrofitted to the class at a later date: MoD graphics in the fiscal year 2015 budget overview have suggested that electromagnetic railguns and laser-based short-range air defence systems are being developed.

 

[a_majoor]

Japan works to counter the Chinese, and comes uip with some new allies:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/09/16/japan-and-vietnam-building-a-strategic-partnership/

Japan and Vietnam Building a Strategic Partnership

During his historic visit to Tokyo, Vietnamese Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong joined Japanese premier Shinzo Abe to announce sizable Japanese investments in Vietnam’s military and civilian infrastructures. The Diplomat has the story:

Following a meeting with Nguyen Phu Trong, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Japanese premier Shinzo Abe pledged that his country would provide new vessels and loans to Vietnam in a boost to economic and security ties.
Vietnam and Japan already have a robust relationship, with the two countries upgrading their relationship from a strategic partnership in 2009 to an extensive strategic partnership in 2014. But the visit, Nguyen said in an interview with Japanese media outlets before his four-day trip to Japan, was aimed at “bringing Vietnam-Japan relations to a higher level.”

In addition to naval vessels and equipment, Abe promised a loan of 100 billion yen ($835 million) for infrastructure development. Vietnam is expected to use the money to expand its port and highway systems.

Just this past weekend, India’s air force chief visited Vietnam, although the specifics of his agenda were unclear. The Japanese premier, meanwhile, was upfront about what is bringing Tokyo and Hanoi together: “It is very significant that we shared grave concerns over continuous unilateral actions to change the status quo and increase tensions in the South China Sea, which includes large-scale land reclamation and building of outposts.”

 

[a_majoor]

Japan offers advanced new submarines to Australia. What other nation has a long coastline, deploys to far off places and needs submarines for the fleet.....?

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/10/japan-offering-australia-bigger-and.html

Japan offering Australia bigger and better version of Soryu class submarine and 100% technology transfer in US$38.8 billion deal

A Japanese consortium has placed a $35 billion bid to construct submarines for the Royal Australian Navy. While France’s DCNS Group and Germany’s Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems (TKMS) have offered proposals, several analysts believe Japan is the only bidder with submarines large enough to meet Australia’s demands.

Japan has offered to construct a state-of-the-art submarine concept which would be larger than its 4,000-ton Soryu-class submarine using new designs and sustainment centers in Japan as well as Adelaide and Perth. In addition, Japan has offered to train hundreds of Australian engineers in Kobe, its manufacturing hub, as well as Australia.

Australia is seeking a long-range submarine, about 4,000-tonnes, bigger than the 3,300-tonne Collins that it currently deploys. To compete against Japan’s 4,200-tonne Soryu class, TKMS is submitting a 4,000-tonne Type 216, and DCNS is offering a smaller, non-nuclear variant of its 5,300 tonne Barracuda-class submarines.

Japan would transfer 100 percent of the technology involved in building a larger version of Japan’s state-of-the-art 4,000-ton diesel-electric Soryu-class submarine to the Australian submariner community.

Australia is only looking to get about 12 submarines, but clearly they are top of the line non-nuclear submarines

Japan’s proposal includes advanced welding technologies, top-secret stealth technology, combat system integration, lithium-ion batteries as the submarine’s main energy source (with the option for air-independent propulsion to be added later an), and an all-weather snorkel system that can operate even during a typhoon

The Soryu-class boats currently in service with the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force are outfitted with a Swedish-made air-independent propulsion system. However, the Australian government has expressed its preference for a lithium-ion battery option – one of Japan’s most preciously guarded military technologies.

Long considered the frontrunner, Japan has been losing ground to Germany and its offer of the HDW-class 216 diesel-electric sub designed by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). Unlike their Japanese competitors, the German company has already built over 160 submarines for 20 different international customers.

 

[CougarKing]

Mr. T,

Discussions and updates on the Soryu class SSK are already being posted at this thread in the Australian Defence Forces section of army.ca.

 

[CougarKing]

Good news for the JASDF:

Diplomat

Japan to Receive New US Military Aircraft by 2020

Tokyo has selected the Boeing KC-46 tanker aircraft for the Japan Air Self-Defense Force.
L1001025
By Franz-Stefan Gady
October 27, 2015

Beating out its main European competitor Airbus, Boeing has secured the first oversea sale of its new KC-46 Pegasus tanker aircraft Kyodo News reports.

Japan’s Defense Minister, Gen Nakatani, confirmed the deal at a news conference last Friday noting that “with more aerial tankers, our aerial defense capability will be reinforced.”

Japan, according to media reports, will procure three KC-46 Pegasus tanker aircraft by 2020 at an estimated price of about 20.8 billion yen ($172.8 million) per plane. Tokyo has set aside funds for the procurement of the planes in its fiscal year 2016 defense budget. A final contract is likely to be signed in early 2016.

Overall, Japan’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) is requesting a 5.09 trillion yen ($42.38 billion) defense budget for fiscal year 2016, up 2.2 percent from the current fiscal year.

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[CougarKing]

Tokyo sending another message to Beijing?

Diplomat

Japan Set to Boost East China Sea Troop Presence

Japan will likely deploy 500 troops to Ishigaki island, 90 nautical miles from the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

By Ankit Panda
November 30, 2015

The East China Sea, the site of a territorial dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, is set to become more crowded. Japan is expected to deploy additional troops to an island near the disputed islands. Last Thursday, Japan’s deputy defense minister, Kenji Wakamiya, met with the mayor of Ishigaki Island to brief him on a plan to deploy 500 Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF) ground troops there.

Ishigaki is southwest of Okinawa and part of the Ryukyu island chain in the East China Sea. The Ryukyus form the eastern frontier of the sea and head southeast from Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan’s main islands. The disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands are approximately 90 nautical miles northwest of Ishigaki. Notably, Ishigaki, for administrative purposes, exercises jurisdiction over the disputed islands.

If Tokyo moves forward with its plans to send ground troops to Ishigaki, it would represent a continuation of its defense policy in the East China Sea ever since bilateral tensions with China flared over the dispute in late-2012 and through 2013. Japan bolstered its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities in the East China Sea in 2014 when it moved SDF troops and set up a radar facility at Yonaguni Island. The radar facility on Yonaguni marked the first time in over 40 years that Japan had added a military installation west of Okinawa. In addition to Yonaguni, Tokyo plans to deploy additional troops to Miyakojima and Amami-Oshima islands by 2018.

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[CougarKing]

More than just rhetoric this time:

Diplomat

Japan Approves Record Defense Budget

Japanese defense spending will increase 1.5 percent during the next fiscal year.
L1001025
By Franz-Stefan Gady
December 28, 2015

The cabinet of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved a record 5.05 trillion yen ($41.4 billion) defense budget for fiscal year 2016/2017 and slightly below the 5.09 trillion yen requested by Japan’s Ministry of Defense (MOD), The Japan Times reports. This marks the fourth consecutive rise in defense spending since Shinzo Abe assumed office in December 2012.

The rise in the defense budget is primarily driven by a weakened yen, higher personnel costs and an increase in expenses for the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine Corp’s Futenma air base in Okinawa Prefecture, which increased from 24.4 billion yen for the current fiscal year to 59.5 billion yen under what is known as “SACO (Special Action Committee on Okinawa)-related expenses.”

The Diplomat reported in September:

    When you take “SACO-related expenses” out of the equation, the actual spending that JMOD has proposed for itself is approximately 4.93 trillion yen ($41.4 billion) — comparable to what Tokyo spent on defense in 2002.

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[MarkOttawa]

More at US Naval Institute News (further links at original):

Cabinet Approves Record $42.1 Billion 2016 Japanese Defense Budget

The cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has approved a record $42.1 billion 2016 defense budget largely seen as a response to China’s rapidly expanding military, particularly the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

The record high spending plan will further expand Japan’s power projection tools, confirms equipment buys that boost cooperation with forward deployed U.S. units.

“We believe the budget includes items that would contribute to enhancing Japan-U.S. cooperation in the area of ISR (information, surveillance and reconnaissance),” Defense Ministry official Tomoki Matsuo said according to The Associated Press.

The new budget includes aviation buys for six Lockheed Martin F-35A Lighting II Joint Strike Fighters [emphasis added], for four Bell-Boeing V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft, 17 Mitsubishi SH-60K helicopters, the start of a multi-year procurement of three Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and Boeing KC-46A Pegasus refueling tanker, according to an October overview of the budget request.


On the maritime front, the budget pays for the acquisition of a new Aegis capable guided missile destroyer and 12th domestically built Soryu-class diesel electric attack submarine (SSK) [emphasis added]...

Much of the new kit is oriented to protecting Japan’s Senkaku Islands on the edge of the East China Sea near Taiwan— which Japan occupies but China also claims…
http://news.usni.org/2015/12/24/cabinet-approves-record-42-1-billion-2016-japanese-defense-budget

Mark
Ottawa

 

[tomahawk6]

Japan's A2/D2 strategy to curb China's naval ambitions.It makes alot of sense and they can use existing islands and provide them with SAM's and land based anti-ship missiles to deny the approaches to the Japanese mainland.A good read.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-military-china-exclusive-idUSKBN0U107220151218

Japan is fortifying its far-flung island chain in the East China Sea under an evolving strategy that aims to turn the tables on China's navy and keep it from ever dominating the Western Pacific Ocean, Japanese military and government sources said.

The United States, believing its Asian allies - and Japan in particular - must help contain growing Chinese military power, has pushed Japan to abandon its decades-old bare-bones home island defense in favor of exerting its military power in Asia.

 

[CougarKing]

It's no longer China's CMS white hulls ramming Japanese Coast Guard white hulls anymore, it's PLA-N vs JMSDF grey hulls:

Diplomat

Japan's MSDF Will Help Guard Disputed Islands From Chinese Warships

Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force will now respond when Chinese vessels enter the Senkakus’ territorial waters.
Pollman_2_Brown
By Mina Pollmann
January 14, 2016


On Tuesday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga clarified that Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) can engage in a “maritime policing operation” when a foreign warship enters Japan’s territorial waters and is not practicing “innocent passage” under international law. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that such seaborne patrolling actions would be undertaken should Chinese naval ships enter the territorial waters surrounding the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

Defense Minister Gen Nakatani also confirmed, “If it becomes difficult for the police and Japan Coast Guard (JCG) to deal with the matter [in the East China Sea], there is the principle of having the SDF respond through maritime policing activities.” Per the Self-Defense Law, the MSDF could operate when the JCG is not sufficient to deal with the situation – such as when a foreign ship outguns the JCG. The Abe Cabinet decided last May that the defense minister could mobilize the MSDF following a phone conference should such a contingency arise.

Such a policing operation would be conducted under domestic law, and hence is not an act of war. Nonetheless, it still heightens the risk of military-on-military conflict compared to a mobilization limited to the JCG. Since a “policing activity” is a not a “defense operation,” there are limitations on use of weapons. But the MSDF can take other measures to demand the intruding ships leave, such as firing warning shots. Furthermore, weapons may be used when needed, i.e. for justifiable defense.

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[a_majoor]

Long term plans to renew the Japanese Air Force with 6 Gen fighters. Lets hope (for all our sakes) that the project managment isn't as inept as for Gen 5:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/01/japan-will-likely-try-to-partner-with.html

Japan will likely try to partner with the USA on a sixth generation jet fighter project

Japan has spent $331 million on the X-2 Stealth fighter prototype but it would cost roughly $60 billion to develop and field a modern stealth combat aircraft.

Japan is not likely to develop the X-2 into a fully operational stealth aircraft—the cost is just not worth it for a limited production run. Instead, the country is likely setting itself up to participate in a future co-development effort with an international partner. The most likely partner would be the United States, which is gearing up to develop the F-X and F/A-XX follow-ons to the F-22 Raptor and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.

The Japanese have long coveted the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, but U.S. law prevented the export of the stealthy air superiority fighter.

The US sixth-generation fighters are expected to use advanced engines such as Adaptive Versatile Engine Technology to allow longer ranges and higher performance. Risk reduction began in 2012 so that engine development can start around 2020. An engine is to be ready when fighters are introduced by the Navy in 2028 and the Air Force in 2032.

The ADaptive Versatile ENgine Technology (or ADVENT) program is an aircraft engine development program run by the United States Air Force with the goal of developing an efficient variable cycle engine for next generation military aircraft in the 20,000 lbf (89 kN) thrust class.

If anything Canadian companies should be getting in on the advanced engine program. Canada is such a huge nation that even domestic flights rival international flights between other nations. Adapting this technology anf getting superior fuel economy for commercial and transport aircraft will have a huge impact on the economy as a whole, as well as for the Forces (advanced turbines can be used to re engine existing ships, aircraft, helicopters and used as generators in static locations).

 

[CougarKing]

more on JASDF posturing in relation to China's unilateral declaration of its ADIZ over much of the East China Sea:

Defense News

Japan Doubles Number of F-15s on Okinawa
Agence France-Presse 1:44 p.m. EST January 31, 2016

TOKYO — Japan has doubled the number of F-15 fighter jets deployed on the southern island of Okinawa, near disputed islands in the East China Sea, the Defense Ministry said Sunday.

Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force now has about 40 F-15s on Okinawa’s Naha base, according to the Defense Ministry.

The move comes as Japan and China have routinely clashed over ownership of the Tokyo-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

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