A Deeply Fractured US

[Brad Sallows]

Trump lies, a lot. So does Biden. Biden can hardly make a speech to a group without trying to make a personal connection with one of his Walter Mitty onion belt stories, and basically pulls whatever "facts" he wants out of his ass when he's talking about past events - when, how much, where, etc. People ought to stop pretending that Biden is some kind of truth-teller.

There are off-ramps for the Democrats if Biden is to be replaced, but none are easy, particularly because Harris is not an obvious electable alternative. And bringing in anyone else will require a lot of new campaigning money.

Some supporters are already trying to stuff the sh!t back in the horse, but what happened on debate night - the performance and the reaction - isn't going down a memory hole. It wasn't just one bad night; it's the result of advancing age.

 

[mariomike]

Looks like they didn't shake hands. Maybe before the debate?

Wasn't expecting a Dancing With The Stars stage exit, but OMG.

explain the crime and homelessness in LA/SF.

Crime per capita.

There were 174,026 violent crimes reported in California in 2020, more than in any other state. Adjusting for population, however, California’s violent crime rate of 442 incidents for every 100,000 people is 16th highest among states.

How the Violent Crime Rate in California Compares to Other States

Violent crime — a broad category of offenses that includes rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and homicide — is on the rise in the United States. According to FBI data, there were a total of 1.3 million violent offenses reported in 2020, or 388 for every 100,000 people — a 5% increase from 2019...

247wallst.com

Homeless people might be attracted by the - relatively - mild climate.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

DNC rules say that biden needs to abdicate. They just can't tell him to retire. He's gotta be talked into doing it himself. Dr Jill won't allow that. She's not ready to go back to Delaware.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

What happens if he drops dead in the middle of the campaign? KH takes over the Whitehouse, but what happens to the campaign?

 

[brihard]

What happens if he drops dead in the middle of the campaign? KH takes over the Whitehouse, but what happens to the campaign?

I’m sure there’s a seldom-used provision in the various rules somewhere to account for the sudden death or incapacity of a candidate.

 

[Good2Golf]

There are off-ramps for the Democrats if Biden is to be replaced, but none are easy, particularly because Harris is not an obvious electable alternative. And bringing in anyone else will require a lot of new campaigning money.

Emergency glass-break drop-in by Michelle Obama is about the only last-minute option that might work.

That said, if the DNC was stupid enough to keep Biden in play, it’s quite possibly stupid enough to try to drop in Hillary Clinton…

 

[KevinB]

I’m sure there’s a seldom-used provision in the various rules somewhere to account for the sudden death or incapacity of a candidate.

Yes

What happens if a presidential candidate cannot take office due to death or incapacitation before January 2025? | Brookings

Senior Fellow Elaine Kamarck explains what happens if one or both of the leading presidential candidates is forced to exit the race.

www.brookings.edu

 

[Cloud Cover]

Emergency glass-break drop-in by Michelle Obama is about the only last-minute option that might work.

That said, if the DNC was stupid enough to keep Biden in play, it’s quite possibly stupid enough to try to drop in Hillary Clinton…

Well Trump would love that, wouldn’t he. I think the one thing that would rally all Republicans around Trump is Newsome from California. He is despised by every person who pays taxes in California. And he’s surrounded himself with parasitic eco-nuts crazier than Guibeault.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Looks like they didn't shake hands. Maybe before the debate?

Wasn't expecting a Dancing With The Stars stage exit, but OMG.

From what I understand No.

Emergency glass-break drop-in by Michelle Obama is about the only last-minute option that might work.

According to various commentators close to the Obamas have been saying is that Michelle Obama wants nothing to do with politics.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The Democratic party has its own procedures for dealing with death, withdrawal, or incapacity of a candidate between the nomination and election. It's the third one that gives them a defenestration option that doesn't involve a more creative rewrite of rules.

 

[OldSolduer]

The Democratic party has its own procedures for dealing with death, withdrawal, or incapacity of a candidate between the nomination and election. It's the third one that gives them a defenestration option that doesn't involve a more creative rewrite of rules.

Russian oligarch advisors enter the chat....

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Well Trump would love that, wouldn’t he. I think the one thing that would rally all Republicans around Trump is Newsome from California. He is despised by every person who pays taxes in California. And he’s surrounded himself with parasitic eco-nuts crazier than Guibeault.

Run ads of of the Skid Rows, stats on people, including democrats fleeing the state, his tax record, education, green agenda, photos of him at the French Laundry while he locked everyone down and the ruination of a generation of students with his covid rules. Run all this in the background while a voice over says "This is the ruin Gavon Newsome has brought to the once great state of California. Now he wants to do it to the rest of the country. Do you really want this to become your neighborhood."

It's a tenuous but truthful relationship that he was Nacy Pelosi's nephew in law. That can be used against him also. An albatross that once spoken, will remain around his neck. No need to be specific, just tie him to Pelosi.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Emergency glass-break drop-in by Michelle Obama is about the only last-minute option that might work.

That said, if the DNC was stupid enough to keep Biden in play, it’s quite possibly stupid enough to try to drop in Hillary Clinton…

I suspect Michelle Obama could rescue the DNC, she is somewhat known and familiar without a whole lot of baggage that Hillary would bring. MO would draw a lot of the deserters back to the fold and would be harder for Trump to counter.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I suspect Michelle Obama could rescue the DNC, she is somewhat known and familiar without a whole lot of baggage that Hillary would bring. MO would draw a lot of the deserters back to the fold and would be harder for Trump to counter.

Eventually and unfortunately though, I think her entrance into the ring would put the question of her sexuallity front and centre before long. Politics at this level is cut throat, mean and dishonest. Maybe it's a conversation she's not willing to have.

 

[KevinB]

Probably the best Democratic Candidate - left their party... Joe Manchin

 

[brihard]

Probably the best Democratic Candidate - left their party... Joe Manchin

The lack of depth for decent contenders within the party is a stinging indictment of their strategic planning. The real risk of medical incapacity or disability is an utterly predictable reality they face (goes for the Republicans too, for that matter). There’s really no excuse for the Dems not having a couple of solid choices in the wings just in case. Could well be there is some depth I’m not seeing, but so far there aren’t any names jumping out, and in the present circumstances they need an RTFN alternative if they’re to have one at all.

Or they’re just banking on Biden faring much better in the second debate in September. But that’s a questionable hand to push all your chips into the middle on.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... It's a tenuous but truthful relationship that he was Nacy Pelosi's nephew in law ...

That might be a bit of a reach, given the relationship ended when Newsom was like 10 years old when his aunt split from her husband. Still, in today's meme-y ecosystem ....

 

[mariomike]

Maybe Trump is forever.

In 2016, Americans rejected him at the ballot box by 3 million votes.

In 2018, Americans rejected Team Red candidates across the country.

In 2020, Americans again rejected Trump. This time by 7 million votes.

Then, Team Red tried to overturn the results with lawsuits and had to be defeated in scores of legal challenges.

Then J6, which had to be thwarted by the Capitol Police.

If Trump is defeated at the ballot box four months from now, he will then have to be defeated a second time in legal challenges to the results.

And then on J6 2025 as he again attempts to substitute legitimate slates of electors with alternate electors.

If he loses in 2024, he will again be the Team Red nominee in 2028.

But that’s a questionable hand to push all your chips into the middle on.

My wife is eligible to vote in their elections. I'm not. But, my chips are always on Red.

Not because of "feelings". Because of data.

In a way, like sports betting. Only difference is, unilke politics, professional sports is the last frontier of meritocracy.

Five of six conservative justices on the Supreme Court were appointed by Republican presidents who lost the popular vote, and confirmed by senators elected by a minority of Americans.

As Nikki pointed out, Team Red lost the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections. But, that hasn't stopped them.

Based on the data, I always bet my chips on Red.

 

[brihard]

Maybe Trump is forever.

In 2016, Americans rejected him at the ballot box by 3 million votes.

In 2018, Americans rejected Team Red candidates across the country.

In 2020, Americans again rejected Trump. This time by 7 million votes.

Then, Team Red tried to overturn the results with lawsuits and had to be defeated in scores of legal challenges.

Then J6, which had to be thwarted by the Capitol Police.

If Trump is defeated at the ballot box four months from now, he will then have to be defeated a second time in legal challenges to the results.

And then on J6 2025 as he again attempts to substitute legitimate slates of electors with alternate electors.

If he loses in 2024, he will again be the Team Red nominee in 2028.



My wife is eligible to vote in their elections. I'm not. But, my chips are always on Red.

Not because of "feelings". Because of data.

In a way, like sports betting. Only difference is, unilke politics, professional sports is the last frontier of meritocracy.

Five of six conservative justices on the Supreme Court were appointed by Republican presidents who lost the popular vote, and confirmed by senators elected by a minority of Americans.

As Nikki pointed out, Team Red lost the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections. But, that hasn't stopped them.

Based on the data, I always bet my chips on Red.

Given how many fraudulent electors are being prosecuted for felonies in several states now, I don’t think anyone will be stupid enough to indulge that particular gambit again. I am, however, concerned about the potential for another bout of violence should he lose again. I don’t think the raw ingredients for ideologically motivated violent extremism are any less present now than they were before. I would have course hope and love to be wrong on this.

 

[mariomike]

I am, however, concerned about the potential for another bout of violence should he lose again. I don’t think the raw ingredients for ideologically motivated violent extremism are any less present now than they were before. I would have course hope and love to be wrong on this.

Some good news for J6'ers.

JUNE 28, 2024

Supreme Court sides with January 6th rioters​

The Supreme Court ruled federal prosecutors improperly charged hundreds of January 6ths defendants — and potentially, even former President Donald Trump.

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/28/1254949437/trumps-trials-scotus-jan6