Trump administration 2024-2028

[QV]

My problem with this paper, and by inference with Canadian defence efforts, is that it talks about what we must do rather than what we are doing. It's just another paper. Canada's problem is that DND's motto can best be described as "verba non acta."

Let's get real. Even if we spent the same 3.4% of GDP like the States (Yeah. They're nowhere near the much touted 5% and DOGE and Trump plan to shave billions off their budget) we'd still be only 1/10th their size. That doesn't bode well for two countries with a west to south 5,500 mile border and with Canada's north-south strategic depth being about 150 miles.

Should we do better on defence matters and foreign affairs? Of course we should regardless of the situation in the US. But it's a narrow walk between being a pseudo-ally of the US or a threat to this administration.

Remember how the US became what it is. The Monroe doctrine's primary warning was for European interests (and by extension any foreign interests) to stay out of North America while Manifest destiny was the belief in American exceptionalism and romantic governance that caused them to believe that they had every right to expand westward (and prior to the coining of the term, northward.) We are seeing a resurgence of those concepts. MAGA means that North America needs to become self-sufficient in order to reform the world's greatest society. That means securing the full human and natural resources of the continent.

Like any corporation facing a hostile takeover we need to develop either a poison pill or a white knight defence. Good luck with that.

How do you see things unfolding over the next decade?

 

[OldSolduer]

White House official pushes to axe Canada from Five Eyes intelligence group

A top White House official has proposed expelling Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network to ramp up pressure. Read more

financialpost.com

Continuing the new trend on how to treat supposed longtime friends and allies.

Disappointing but not really surprised. DJT cutting us off from vital int, that we cannot act on if we don't know, and then blame us for any incursions into US territory by terrorists. A pretext for invasion, like some guy about 86 years ago.

 

[Halifax Tar]

White House official pushes to axe Canada from Five Eyes intelligence group

A top White House official has proposed expelling Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network to ramp up pressure. Read more

financialpost.com

Continuing the new trend on how to treat supposed longtime friends and allies.

Never nice to see, but this could have been predicted.

 

[QV]

White House official pushes to axe Canada from Five Eyes intelligence group

A top White House official has proposed expelling Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network to ramp up pressure. Read more

financialpost.com

Continuing the new trend on how to treat supposed longtime friends and allies.

Could this have something to do with that?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1893848233144701111

 

[OldSolduer]

Never nice to see, but this could have been predicted.

All the more reason for the GoC to direct CSIS to do whatever it is CSIS does....

 

[PPCLI Guy]

The paper is a means to an end, which is policy context and justifications for focused investment in critical capabilities.

The PFEC came with a costed Statement of Joint Capability Deficiency (SOJCD) based on substantial DOTMIL-PF analysis. The SOJCD was unfortunately never released as it was not politically (small and big P) palatable, although I hear it was referenced in advice provided to GC after the last election. It also was followed by the "Conduct of Operations in the Pan Domain Environment (COPE) which was how about how to actually implement the PFEC (since morphed into Comd CJOC Commander's Planning Guidance).

The CAF Digital Campaign Plan provided the context for the MC and follow on TB submission that secured 200M in V1 funding over 5 years, unlike all of the other requests being made of Cabinet and TB.

This type of foundational work is often eschewed as not useful (code for too hard) which leads to requests (eg X more artillery pieces) without being able to justify it to analysts in PCO agencies who can't spell DND, let alone understand the imperative for indirect fires.

It comes down to grade 5 math: Show Your Work.

 

[FJAG]

How do you see things unfolding over the next decade?

I'm not clairvoyant and don't believe in idle speculation. Sorry.

I can tell you that as a long time fan of the US who has, in the past, spent a considerable amount of time down there and a considerable amount of my money there, my attitude has taken a complete 180. I can no longer abide a country where 70 million plus voters would vote for a man like Trump and his ilk and the policy agenda that he made very clear. It didn't help that the Democrats put not one but two shadow candidates up against him. Trump is an anarchist and through his and his cronies actions, the US is quickly going to hell in a handbasket. My hope is that Canada doesn't get caught up in the turbulence. Personally, I'm minimizing every penny that I have from going to the US and looking at putting a better government in place here.

 

[Quirky]

Canada needs to own it's failures in defence, CCP influence and failures to deal effectively with drug smuggling. But it is clear we need to economically distance ourselves from the US as much as possible, so they have to come to the table more as customer, than as someone who can blackmail us. We need more marine terminals, pipelines and railways, going East <> West. We need to be willing to use energy products as counterweights to tariffs, charging export taxes that reflect unfair tariffs. Someone like Trump will only respect strength and stubbornness.

Canada will do none of those things. The Can gov of the day will tread water and hope for the next US government to reverse Trump policies.

 

[OldSolduer]

Canada will do none of those things. The Can gov of the day will tread water and hope for the next US government to reverse Trump policies.

Glass half full?

I’d like to think we’ll have a new GoC in November that actually can decide what’s going to happen. And not make announcements conjured out of unicorn farts.

 

[RangerRay]

White House official pushes to axe Canada from Five Eyes intelligence group

A top White House official has proposed expelling Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network to ramp up pressure. Read more

financialpost.com

Continuing the new trend on how to treat supposed longtime friends and allies.

It would be helpful if they gave a reason. I suspect it’s our being compromised by Beijing, but if that’s the case, they need to make that public. Otherwise the Canadian public will just get defensive at another attack on our sovereignty. It’s no use if Washington is quietly telling Ottawa to get its poop together if the public oblivious.

While I want Canada to aggressively confront foreign influence here, I can also make the argument that with a suspected Russian asset (at best, useful idiot) at the top of the American intelligence pyramid, we should temporarily remove the US from the Five Eyes.

 

[OldSolduer]

What are the other three eyes thinking? Maybe they need to reassess their relationship with the USA.
I would hold my cards very close to my chest if I were at that table with a Russian ass kisser.

 

[Kirkhill]

The paper is a means to an end, which is policy context and justifications for focused investment in critical capabilities.

The PFEC came with a costed Statement of Joint Capability Deficiency (SOJCD) based on substantial DOTMIL-PF analysis. The SOJCD was unfortunately never released as it was not politically (small and big P) palatable, although I hear it was referenced in advice provided to GC after the last election. It also was followed by the "Conduct of Operations in the Pan Domain Environment (COPE) which was how about how to actually implement the PFEC (since morphed into Comd CJOC Commander's Planning Guidance).

The CAF Digital Campaign Plan provided the context for the MC and follow on TB submission that secured 200M in V1 funding over 5 years, unlike all of the other requests being made of Cabinet and TB.

This type of foundational work is often eschewed as not useful (code for too hard) which leads to requests (eg X more artillery pieces) without being able to justify it to analysts in PCO agencies who can't spell DND, let alone understand the imperative for indirect fires.

It comes down to grade 5 math: Show Your Work.

Workable analogy?

PDC2 as an Abrams turret?

Loader - Stores Manager
Gunner - Dispatcher
Commander - Communicates with outside world and maintains situational awareness.


Commander covers arcs and evaluates situation.
Decides on course of action.

Loader reaches back into the bustle and withdraws RPAS, or SovPat, or SAR team or Fighter, or naval task force or SSM/SAM, or Combat Team or Brigade Group.

Dispatcher sends selection down range.


....

Now if only we had something in the bustle.

 

[Brad Sallows]

And is that how Trump sees it? Because he seems rather disinclined to navigate our bilateral relationship on an issue by issue basis. He’s approaching the whole thing rather hamfistedly.

It's foolish to overreact to everything Trump does. It's beyond foolish to not work intelligently, rather than emotionally, to mitigate damage.

Wrestle with the pig if you wish. Just don't drag the rest of us into the mire.

 

[brihard]

It's foolish to overreact to everything Trump does. It's beyond foolish to not work intelligently, rather than emotionally, to mitigate damage.

Wrestle with the pig if you wish. Just don't drag the rest of us into the mire.

You’ll be reassured to know that, like you, I’m just another guy discussing on the internet and am of no importance whatsoever. So, as I asked: are we confident that that’s how Trump himself sees it, in contrast with the way he is currently behaving? Are you making assumptions that are predicated on him behaving like his predecessors, or might his attitudes or motivation be different enough to matter?

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Workable analogy?

PDC2 as an Abrams turret?

Loader - Stores Manager
Gunner - Dispatcher
Commander - Communicates with outside world and maintains situational awareness.


Commander covers arcs and evaluates situation.
Decides on course of action.

Loader reaches back into the bustle and withdraws RPAS, or SovPat, or SAR team or Fighter, or naval task force or SSM/SAM, or Combat Team or Brigade Group.

Dispatcher sends selection down range.


....

Now if only we had something in the bustle.

That is the essence of command. Sense, Make Sense, Decide, Act

Sense-Make Sense-Decide-Act (SMDA) is at the heart of achieving the decision advantage required to effect CAF mission outcomes. In its simplest form, a decision cycle is simply a sequence of steps or activities used by an individual or organization to make decisions on a repeatable basis.​

​

While depicted as a sequential cycle, each phase can occur concurrently, and multiple cycles can be occurring simultaneously throughout the operating environment. This Decision Cycle (an evolution of the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act loop adopted by CAF to align with our allies) drives disciplined, integrated, and informed decisions and action at a scale and speed to achieve decision and operational advantage.​

 

[KevinB]

Could this have something to do with that?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1893848233144701111

Well given the US Government is being controlled by Putin - I'd suggest 5Y's kick us out until we manage to regain control of the country from the hands of filthy traitors.

 

[Brad Sallows]

You’ll be reassured to know that, like you, I’m just another guy discussing on the internet and am of no importance whatsoever. So, as I asked: are we confident that that’s how Trump himself sees it, in contrast with the way he is currently behaving? Are you making assumptions that are predicated on him behaving like his predecessors, or might his attitudes or motivation be different enough to matter?

He's not different enough to justify inflicting more damage, and he's time-limited. Less than four years and he's out; less than two years and both legislative bodies of Congress are likely to flip.

 

[PrairieFella]

Could this have something to do with that?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1893848233144701111

I think the more pressing concern facing the other four eyes is Comrade Krasnov at the top of the pile in the USA. China is a threat but Russia is Adversary #1. Purge our skeletons yes, but let's not pretend like the Americans aren't completely compromised as well.

 

[QV]

China is adversary #1. Russia is a threat and mostly to the EU.

Let's wait and see how the next 6 months go before settling firmly on the notion that the US is Putin's puppet.

 

[Kirkhill]

That is the essence of command. Sense, Make Sense, Decide, Act

Sense-Make Sense-Decide-Act (SMDA) is at the heart of achieving the decision advantage required to effect CAF mission outcomes. In its simplest form, a decision cycle is simply a sequence of steps or activities used by an individual or organization to make decisions on a repeatable basis.​

​

While depicted as a sequential cycle, each phase can occur concurrently, and multiple cycles can be occurring simultaneously throughout the operating environment. This Decision Cycle (an evolution of the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act loop adopted by CAF to align with our allies) drives disciplined, integrated, and informed decisions and action at a scale and speed to achieve decision and operational advantage.​

View attachment 91569

Looks familiar.

In the CAF hierarchy where would this sit? In CJOC? Or as a separate structure? And would it operate in parallel with NORAD-NORTHCOM in the North American context?

I can understand that the concept is common to all levels of command/operations but how would it be applied at the higher levels of command?

...

I guess I am specifically thinking about how a Canadianized Multi-Domain Task Force might operate in conjunction with NORAD while maintaining independence of action as a sovereign force and being able to meld with an allied force on expedition.

My sense is that any PDC2 entity operating in the North American context is going to be operating 24/7, not necessarily "acting" but constantly "sensing" and "deciding".

Meanwhile any expeditionary capability is one that may operate continually at a low grade to maintain some situational awareness, but by an large is a capability that can be switched on or off according to need.