Will the number of Canadian Infantrymen drop after Afghanistan?

[Marshall12345]

This may be a silly question, but I hope to get some different opinions.

I realize the spike in recruits since Afghanistan and I've talked to a recruiter who tells me the Infantry is overflowing with applicants.
This is more of an opinion question, but what do you think? Do you think after Canadian soldiers are pulled out of Afghanistan the infantry will decrease in numbers? I cannot join yet for another year because of high school but I'm curious to other insights.

Thanks.

 

[dapaterson]

No.


The changes to PML were driven by force expansion.  Any future changes to PML (the target for the number in each occupation) will be driven by force structure changes, not by the current theatre of operations.

The current overage is entirely the fault of Gen (ret'd) Hillier, who overrode the checks and balances designed in the system to keep recruiting open, despite the occupation hitting its recruiting targets.  This now permits him to brag that under his leadership recruiting targets were met, while overlooking that they were met by recruiting the wrong occupations in the wrong numbers, leaving critical shortfalls in other areas.



(Edit: Because my typing is horrible)

 

[ModlrMike]

Personally I think it will take some time before a sizable number of vacancies exist. The combat arms are overborne and it will take a couple of years at least to return them to PML (Preferred Manning Level). We're unlikely to see a surge of compulsory release or remusters. Even voluntary release is likely to be closely managed. Any trades that gain members from the combat arms on remuster can only absorb so many.

My  :2c: - reality might differ greatly!

 

[Spooks]

My personal opinion based on observation while working with the lower ranks in my unit:

A lot of guys who have 1-2yrs left in their initial BE are frustrated they won't 'get to go over and fight in the Gan'. Thus, one may initially believe that numbers would drop after the new Ptes' first BE is up, but from what I have seen in a short period of time the numbers will not drastically changed as per normal. Guys will get to their resigning time and realise that they'll have to do the civvie thing again so they'll do a 2nd BE.

Summary of opinion: no big change in the next bit at least

 

[Waters81]

After a disappointing phone call from Toronto RC  last Wednesday to cancel my med. and interview (which were 2 days away), I took it upon myself to head on in and get a bit more info from a recruiter. He had mentioned that with our troops returning from Afghanistan, some will be leaving for various reasons and that that may, possibly, free up some more positions and to call the RC every-so-often ask the if any of my trades are accepting applications (Infantry, CE, Armored). Now, I'm not sure if the numbers people at the DND may have already accounted for that and guesstimated those numbers, but I'm just curious as to whether or not there be some truth behind what I was told.

 

[aesop081]

After major missions, and indeed individual rotations, a number of people move on right away. This is nothing new. The post-Afghanistan world will not be any different. Last i heard, the Infantry MOS is overborne by several orders of magnitude so it is quite possible that a post-mission exodus will not bring down the numbers to make significant recruiting possible. IMHO, people recognize that the economy is uncertain and that the CF will be involved in more than one place in the not-so-distant future.

My 2 gronks.............Advice like what you got is a big "What if" and you are unfortunately too willing to grasp at straws.

 

[Waters81]

My 2 gronks.............Advice like what you got is a big "What if" and you are unfortunately too willing to grasp at straws.

Coming up on 4 years of trying to join the CF and coming as close as I did this year...yes, I am grasping at straws. However, I will wait the 9+ months until the trades' #s come out again, but if I am bale to proceed sooner, it would be a bonus.

 

[aesop081]

However, I will wait the 9+ months until the trades' #s come out again,

By all means do so, but at least ask yourself, what will you do if the trade does not open then ? Are you going to play the "i'll see next year" game again and again ?

Just wondering.

 

[Waters81]

By all means do so, but at least ask yourself, what will you do if the trade does not open then ? Are you going to play the "i'll see next year" game again and again ?

Just wondering.

I most definitely will. This is something I want more than I am able to explain to people, and I've been trying for too long and come too far to just give up. I'm being optimistic about this and I think that my opportunity will present itself. I will achieve this, there isn't a doubt in my mind.

 

[Marshall12345]

What position are you going for if you don't mind me asking? At my local RC the lady told us that they have 2 1/2 more applicants then they need. I've read a lot about people waiting and waiting.

 

[aesop081]

What position are you going for

Read the thread........pay attention to reply #4

It helps.........

 

[Marshall12345]

Read the thread........pay attention to reply #4

It helps.........

My mistake.

 

[Jimmy_D]

The current overage is entirely the fault of Gen (ret'd) Hillier, who overrode the checks and balances designed in the system to keep recruiting open, despite the occupation hitting its recruiting targets.  This now permits him to brag that under his leadership recruiting targets were met, while overlooking that they were met by recruiting the wrong occupations in the wrong numbers, leaving critical shortfalls in other areas.



(Edit: Because my typing is horrible)

This may be true, but at the same token Gen (ret'd) Hillier was looking at the fact that not every Combat Arms member wanted to go over the Afghanistan on numerous tours, and Combat Arms being in the mainly in the fight usually results in more casualties (wheather mental or physical) or in releases for alot of members didn't want to go back so they would either release or remuster hoping to legthen the time to when they had to go back.

On that same note, yes the trades went over the PML but the more boots on the ground, the more career options you have to open up in other areas as well. So at the same time it is making more career opportunities for others in other trades.

And it was not only making more of a career opportunity for members of all trades. Look at all the equipment that he has gotten for us. We were kinda of at an ends meet with alot of our equipment. With Hillier we got Tanks back, 50.cal BMG, plus other and new equip.

My opinion is that Gen (ret'd) Hillier did an excellent job while in his position.

 

[Sapplicant]

they have 2 1/2 more applicants then they need.

What?

 

[211RadOp]

... 2 1/2 more applicants then they need.

What?

I believe it's 2 1/2 times more.

 

[Marshall12345]

I believe it's 2 1/2 times more.

Woops. Yes, I meant 2 and a half times more applicants then needed. Atleast that is what the lady administrating the CFAT told me.