Was Iran Behind the Oman Tanker Attacks? A Look at the Evidence
Internet databases confirm much about the incident, but the Trump administration hasn’t provided convincing evidence of Tehran’s culpability.
By Eliot Higgins
Mr. Higgins is the managing director of the investigative collective Bellingcat.
New York Times, 14 June 2019
There has been considerable cynicism worldwide about American claims that the attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday were conducted by Iran.
Iran has denied the accusation, and on Twitter, the term “Gulf of Tonkin” trended alongside the “Gulf of Oman.”
That historical reference is telling. It was in citing the “Gulf of Tonkin incident” — the North Vietnamese were accused of attacking American destroyers in that gulf in 1964 — that President Lyndon B. Johnson persuaded the Congress to authorize greater American military involvement in Vietnam. Historians have concluded that the attack never happened and Johnson’s ploy is now seen as the quintessential false flag operation.
With tensions rising in the region since attacks on four tankers off the United Arab Emirates in May, understanding what happened and who is to blame is crucial. Could the Gulf of Oman attack be the 21st century version of the Gulf of Tonkin incident?
Thanks to the internet and the range of publicly available information, confirming or denying such an attack has become far easier since the 1960s. A distance of several thousand miles does not mean much today.
Tools and information like satellite imagery that was once only available to intelligence agencies can now be found on everyday tools such as Google Maps. Social media allows far-flung people to share information.
Online databases containing all kinds of information are now available to people anywhere. It is with these databases that we can start with our investigation into what happened in the Gulf of Oman.
Initial reports named the attacked vessels as the Kokuka Courageous and Front Altair. But how can we be sure these names are accurate when we are thousands of miles away with no reporters nearby?
Vessel tracking websites that collect transponder data from thousands of ships from fishing boats to cruise liners across the world in real time allow you to search for vessels and find their current location. Both the Kokuka Courageous and Front Altair could be found on the tracking website MarineTraffic, which showed both vessels at a standstill in the Gulf of Oman. MarineTraffic published the paths of both vessels through the gulf on its Twitter account.
The reports of the attack were followed by images claiming to show damage to both vessels, including a major fire on the Front Altair. It was impossible to read the markings on the vessels in the images but users of the MarineTraffic website were able to help confirm that the ships matched the designs of the two vessels.
That’s because MarineTraffic users photograph vessels and share the pictures on the website. Anyone can see them and verify if the vessel you are looking at is the one it is claimed to be.
Similarly, the Sentinel Hub website publishes imagery taken by its satellites. Soon after the incident in the Gulf of Oman, an image became available showing the Front Altair on fire.
With the incident confirmed, the next question was, what happened to the vessels? The United States Central Command gave one answer, publishing a statement that detailed the activity around the two vessels observed by American naval forces in the area.
The statement included images of the Kokuka Courageous (my colleagues and I checked them against reference images of the ship to confirm the vessel’s identity) that showed a hole on one side of the ship, along with an object on the side of the hull that was described in the statement as a “likely limpet mine.”
Along with the statement and image a video was published showing what was claimed to be an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Gashti class patrol boat removing the unexploded limpet mine from the hull of the Kokuka Courageous, the implication being it was Iran that placed the mine there and was recovering evidence of its involvement.
Given the political import and the source of the statement, it is necessary to check the claims made. What can we actually see in the American evidence from the Gulf of Oman?
Identical markings on the side of the Kokuka Courageous above the alleged limpet mine are visible in both the photographs of the vessel and in the video showing its apparent removal by the Gashti patrol boat.
Photographs and video published by Iran’s Press TV network show the same type of patrol boats as part of a ceremony marking the delivery of such vessels to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Yet what the videos and photographs published by the United States don’t show us is more important. While the object on the side of the Kokuka Courageous is described as a “likely limpet mine” the images presented aren’t clear enough to verify that.
Nothing presented as evidence proves that the object was placed there by the Iranians. The video shows only that the Iranians chose to remove it for an as yet unknown reason.
This is especially important in light of a statement by Yukata Katada, the president of the operator of the Kokuka Courageous, that the crew had reported that the ship was attacked by a “flying object.” Mr. Katada added, “I do not think there was a time bomb or an object attached to the side of the ship.”
While we cannot be sure whether this is a Gulf of Tonkin-style incident, we can say for certain this is not the slam-dunk evidence that some would like to claim it is. In the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran we have to work on all the information available, not just what one side presents.
