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If we lose hearts and minds, we will lose the war
DAVID KILCULLEN
WEDNESDAY, 20TH MAY 2009
David Kilcullen, the man who helped think up the strategy that saved Iraq, saysthat high-tech weaponry is not the answer in Afghanistan. Only a genuine partnership with the people can help us win
Sir Olaf Caroe — a legendary figure of the Raj, ethnographer of the Pashtuns and last administrator of the North-West Frontier of British India — wrote in 1958 that ‘unlike other wars, Afghan wars become serious only when they are over; in British times at least they were apt to produce an after-crop of tribal unrest [and] constant intrigue among the border tribes.’ Western leaders would have been wise to consider his words after the ‘stunning defeat’ of the Taleban, whose ramshackle theocratic tyranny crumbled in less than ten weeks’ fighting after 9/11.
On 7 December 2001, as the last Taleban stronghold fell at Kandahar, only 110 CIA and a few hundred Special Forces officers were inside Afghanistan. Donald Rumsfeld mused that this lightning success by an elite ground force, operating under a high-tech umbrella of precision airpower, space-based surveillance and satellite communications, heralded a ‘transformation’ that would remake the rules of war. General Tommy Franks exulted that ‘information dominance’ — omniscience through pervasive real-time intelligence — had given him ‘the kind of Olympian perspective that Homer had given his gods’. Afghanistan, graveyard of the Soviet empire and bugbear to the British, Mughals, Persians and Macedonians, had proven almost too easy to conquer, thanks to the sheer brilliance of Western political leaders, the raw talent of our fighting men and the wizardry of our weapons.
Well, not quite. It turns out that old Olaf was closer to the mark.
After a two-year lull the Taleban returned with a vengeance, escalating their insurgency and threatening the security of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Tribal unrest, extremist brutality and terrorist violence have soared, coalition resolve is faltering and local governments seem unable, or unwilling, to deal with the threat. There have been signs, in recent days, that the Pentagon understands the urgent need for a new approach to Afghanistan. Lieutenant General Stanley A. McChrystal, the new American commander in Afghanistan, had his first meeting with President Obama on Tuesday this week and his appointment at least signifies a desire to move away from conventional warfare to the sort of counter-insurgency thinking that was so successful in Iraq. But Pentagon officials have also indicated drone strikes are to be a significant part of any new approach, and drones are not the answer.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/3634478/if-we-lose-hearts-and-minds-we-will-lose-the-war.thtml
DAVID KILCULLEN
WEDNESDAY, 20TH MAY 2009
David Kilcullen, the man who helped think up the strategy that saved Iraq, saysthat high-tech weaponry is not the answer in Afghanistan. Only a genuine partnership with the people can help us win
Sir Olaf Caroe — a legendary figure of the Raj, ethnographer of the Pashtuns and last administrator of the North-West Frontier of British India — wrote in 1958 that ‘unlike other wars, Afghan wars become serious only when they are over; in British times at least they were apt to produce an after-crop of tribal unrest [and] constant intrigue among the border tribes.’ Western leaders would have been wise to consider his words after the ‘stunning defeat’ of the Taleban, whose ramshackle theocratic tyranny crumbled in less than ten weeks’ fighting after 9/11.
On 7 December 2001, as the last Taleban stronghold fell at Kandahar, only 110 CIA and a few hundred Special Forces officers were inside Afghanistan. Donald Rumsfeld mused that this lightning success by an elite ground force, operating under a high-tech umbrella of precision airpower, space-based surveillance and satellite communications, heralded a ‘transformation’ that would remake the rules of war. General Tommy Franks exulted that ‘information dominance’ — omniscience through pervasive real-time intelligence — had given him ‘the kind of Olympian perspective that Homer had given his gods’. Afghanistan, graveyard of the Soviet empire and bugbear to the British, Mughals, Persians and Macedonians, had proven almost too easy to conquer, thanks to the sheer brilliance of Western political leaders, the raw talent of our fighting men and the wizardry of our weapons.
Well, not quite. It turns out that old Olaf was closer to the mark.
After a two-year lull the Taleban returned with a vengeance, escalating their insurgency and threatening the security of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Tribal unrest, extremist brutality and terrorist violence have soared, coalition resolve is faltering and local governments seem unable, or unwilling, to deal with the threat. There have been signs, in recent days, that the Pentagon understands the urgent need for a new approach to Afghanistan. Lieutenant General Stanley A. McChrystal, the new American commander in Afghanistan, had his first meeting with President Obama on Tuesday this week and his appointment at least signifies a desire to move away from conventional warfare to the sort of counter-insurgency thinking that was so successful in Iraq. But Pentagon officials have also indicated drone strikes are to be a significant part of any new approach, and drones are not the answer.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/3634478/if-we-lose-hearts-and-minds-we-will-lose-the-war.thtml
