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Lockdown On East Block Parliament Hill- 05/April/ 2025

Jarnhamar

Jarnhamar

Army.ca Myth
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8,722
Points
1,160
Remius said:
Rock and a hard place with this one.
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It's entertaining to watch the other side drop candidates but whether or not someone drops candidate isn't changing any voters minds.

Are Liberals not voting for Carney because he didn't do the right thing with the MP in Toronto? Naw they just said "oh yeah he should have been dropped, anyways, look at this CPC candidate he needs to be dropped!"

Conservatives aren't voting Liberal now because an CPC MP said disparaging things about First Nations that's echoed behind a lot of closed doors.

LPC and CPC could have kept all their MPs and nothing would have changed.
 
Jarnhamar said:
It's entertaining to watch the other side drop candidates but whether or not someone drops candidate isn't changing any voters minds.
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It likely is a variety of factors. The candidate, their actual chances of winning in a particular riding, the reason for being dropped etc etc.
Jarnhamar said:
Are Liberals not voting for Carney because he didn't do the right thing with the MP in Toronto? Naw they just said "oh yeah he should have been dropped, anyways, look at this CPC candidate he needs to be dropped!"
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Depends like I said above, Chiang was a bit of a test that I think Carney failed. I’d be curious to see how that riding goes now. It looks like it went from LPC a likely to LPC Leaning according to 338. Not a major change but with three weeks left that trend could potentially change. Incumbent is gone, an issue that made national news etc

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Jarnhamar said:
Conservatives aren't voting Liberal now because an CPC MP said disparaging things about First Nations that's echoed behind a lot of closed doors.
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Like I said it depends on the riding. So in the case of dropping a convoy guy it could send some votes to the PPC or keeping him could turn off moderates that see that as an issue.
Jarnhamar said:
LPC and CPC could have kept all their MPs and nothing would have changed.
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Maybe yes. It will vary from place to place but, the election is probably closer than we think. CPC a has locked in support but needs the soft support that is bleeding to the LPC. Those little things all over the place could make that difference.
 
dapaterson said:
https://bsky.app/profile/lukelebrun.ca%2Fpost%2F3llyxt3xzqc2y
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Fun. It’s a start point, certainly. It would need to be established through investigation that one actually contacted to other, say through having the contents of the chat. Both simply being in the signal group wouldn’t likely cut it, particularly given how a third party can (sometimes hilariously) add someone else without the person added having any part. A breach offence still requires intent be proven.
 
RangerRay said:
Instead, they propped up the government long enough for the Liberals to get a leader who gives an aura of competence.
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That was difficult to foresee. We have hindsight. They could be faulted if they never wargamed it out as a likely/dangerous scenario.

Now the lesson is on the table. Also, we know where the real bottom for the NDP lies, and that they can't afford the indulgence of a feel-good leader who speaks in air-headed platitudes unless he is running against approximately the same calibre of opponents. The latter may apply to any party which chooses a leader who can only speak in Sunday School versions of issues to the party's base voters.

Another lesson is in progress - don't keep fighting the election you thought you were going to fight and prepared massively to fight when a key factor changes. This lesson is for the CPC. They still have time to try a course change. Will they?
 
Brad Sallows said:
Another lesson is in progress - don't keep fighting the election you thought you were going to fight and prepared massively to fight when a key factor changes. This lesson is for the CPC. They still have time to try a course change. Will they?
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Say you've never met Jenni without saying you've never met Jenni.
 
Brad Sallows said:
That was difficult to foresee. We have hindsight. They could be faulted if they never wargamed it out as a likely/dangerous scenario.

Now the lesson is on the table. Also, we know where the real bottom for the NDP lies, and that they can't afford the indulgence of a feel-good leader who speaks in air-headed platitudes unless he is running against approximately the same calibre of opponents. The latter may apply to any party which chooses a leader who can only speak in Sunday School versions of issues to the party's base voters.

Another lesson is in progress - don't keep fighting the election you thought you were going to fight and prepared massively to fight when a key factor changes. This lesson is for the CPC. They still have time to try a course change. Will they?
Click to expand...

Yeah, NDP blew through what probably everyone assumed was their hard floor pretty significantly. I wonder if this reflects an openness among NDP voters that was always there, or if this is pretty anomalous and unique to the current times and situation?

I feel like I said something like this already in the past few days, but an interesting data point from this election will be how concentrated the votes are in the top two parties and how little of the electorate goes elsewhere. Since the CPC merger it’s usually between 60 and 70%, this election could see it over 80%. It’s a wild consolidation of voter support in the top two parties.
 
Lumber said:
Ahh come on you Carney haters; you can't tell me you don't have a little bit of a crush on Carney for this statement ;)

View attachment 92453
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A boring dude trying not to be boring during an election- but it’s an appealing sentiment right now.

Obviously Canada will not be a commanding economic power in the new order- but we are in the top ten economies in the world, we’re a major natural resource supplier and have a skilled and educated workforce, and the timing of our hosting the G7 summit is certainly fortuitous. We should promote the hell out of Canada as a trading partner. Canada may be in a position to take a leadership role through persuasion and influence, and given the economic nature of the current global crisis, Carney is relatively well equipped to play a role there.

EDIT TO ADD: And here’s the clip. It’s worth the two minute watch.

 
brihard said:
A boring dude trying not to be boring during an election- but it’s an appealing sentiment right now.

Obviously Canada will not be a commanding economic power in the new order- but we are in the top ten economies in the world, we’re a major natural resource supplier and have a skilled and educated workforce, and the timing of our hosting the G7 summit is certainly fortuitous. We should promote the hell out of Canada as a trading partner. Canada may be in a position to take a leadership role through persuasion and influence, and given the economic nature of the current global crisis, Carney is relatively well equipped to play a role there.

EDIT TO ADD: And here’s the clip. It’s worth the two minute watch.

Click to expand...

Carney has already made overtures to Europeans. We won’t be the economic super power but we might be the countries that rallies and brings people to the table.

I am willing to bet that now that the world’s wait and see approach is over and are experiencing what we have for months, that they will be more than willing to start making deals and reshape the economic landscape. Canada could play a significant leadership role in that. Old boring guy might be exactly what is needed.
 
Harper was dead boring - like paint drying boring, but he was reliable and that got him elected.
brihard said:
A boring dude trying not to be boring during an election- but it’s an appealing sentiment right now.

Obviously Canada will not be a commanding economic power in the new order- but we are in the top ten economies in the world, we’re a major natural resource supplier and have a skilled and educated workforce, and the timing of our hosting the G7 summit is certainly fortuitous. We should promote the hell out of Canada as a trading partner. Canada may be in a position to take a leadership role through persuasion and influence, and given the economic nature of the current global crisis, Carney is relatively well equipped to play a role there.

EDIT TO ADD: And here’s the clip. It’s worth the two minute watch.

Click to expand...
 
Brad Sallows said:
That was difficult to foresee. We have hindsight. They could be faulted if they never wargamed it out as a likely/dangerous scenario.

Now the lesson is on the table. Also, we know where the real bottom for the NDP lies, and that they can't afford the indulgence of a feel-good leader who speaks in air-headed platitudes unless he is running against approximately the same calibre of opponents. The latter may apply to any party which chooses a leader who can only speak in Sunday School versions of issues to the party's base voters.

Another lesson is in progress - don't keep fighting the election you thought you were going to fight and prepared massively to fight when a key factor changes. This lesson is for the CPC. They still have time to try a course change. Will they?
Click to expand...
There were numerous comments on these pages outlining this very outcome so it wasn't unforeseen but contributors kept insisting that the NDP were in a better position by pushing the government to pass legislation that they favoured. Unless they can find another Jack instead of a chance at being the opposition whilst the liberals re-built they have joined the Social Credit party in the Canadian history books.
 
Sure. Just juxtapose that with clips of QC politicians passing remarks along the lines of "is it good for QC" and of any one of hundreds of small indigenous groups divided in two between moving forward on a project or blocking it. And virtuous statements of principle and exhortations to adopt our social values are not the kind of leadership other nations care about.
 
YZT580 said:
There were numerous comments on these pages outlining this very outcome so it wasn't unforeseen but contributors kept insisting that the NDP were in a better position by pushing the government to pass legislation that they favoured. Unless they can find another Jack instead of a chance at being the opposition whilst the liberals re-built they have joined the Social Credit party in the Canadian history books.
Click to expand...

Yup, I’ll stick my hand up as having said that. At the time I had every reason to believe it was true, I failed to anticipate what Trump would do to our domestic politics, or the magnitude of the LPC recovery. I thought they’d bounce a bit to potentially challenge a CPC majority down to a minority; nothing about events prior to late a Feb pointed to a commanding LPC resurgence powered by an NDP collapse.

However, as a caveat on that, NDP voters likely know that an LPC government will deliver much more of what they want than a CPC one. The Canadian Dental Care Program for instance is slated to significantly increase in breadth of coverage soon. The CPC definitely would not advance the NDP agenda, although many voters may also have set that aside in the interim given the economic crisis.

I still think a Liberal minority (probably a strong one) is the likeliest election result, polling notwithstanding… I think there’s a considerable bubble to PM Carney’s support and I don’t want to proceed on the assumption it will stay as inflated as it is. Any thinning of LPC seems most likely to be to the NDP’s advantage, so they may yet retain the ability to influence policy.

If LPC get a majority, NDP will instead need to plan a three and a half year rebuild, which will probably focus on the LPC’s swing back to the middle abandoning the more leftist policies that they’ve hitherto been eating the NDP’s lunch with.
 
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