Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[KevinB]

Aside from the ACSVs, the rest can be tied to NORAD so guess who is talking…

Believe me, the ACSV’s definitely didn’t come from here. You have 600 or so Bradley’s and a slew of AMPV if that was directed from Washington. I’m guessing that part of message was not very clear, or part of Justin’s Double Double got slopped on the the Army’s to do list.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Someone, somewhere seems to be putting their foot down and telling him what he's going to do...

88 F-35's, 16 Poseidons, 9 MRTT, 360-ish ACSV's to bolster the LAV 6 fleet, a fancy alien radar somewhere in Ontario to monitor the Arctic (it ain't cheap) - seems like someone has been telling them what they're going to do as of late...thank goodness

Hey Justin ...

 

[suffolkowner]

Believe me, the ACSV’s definitely didn’t come from here. You have 600 or so Bradley’s and a slew of AMPV if that was directed from Washington. I’m guessing that part of message was not very clear, or part of Justin’s Double Double got slopped on the the Army’s to do list.

London needed work and money I guess. And we did need replacements. Theres no reason that we cant or shouldnt have a tracked IFV/APC as well other than we already ran that competition.

What ever happened to the Saudi LAV700's are they built? Delivered? Paid for?

 

[Kirkhill]

NATO can talk til its blue in the face and this PM will not or cannot take a hint. He's too invested in carbon taxes and saving the planet. AND he's not a tall tree....but.....

Maaaaybeee....

I put it to Mr. Blair that if his government would commit to procuring new tanks today, it could free us up to send along those Leopard 2 tanks – which are already slated to be decommissioned in the next decade, and which are costing more and more to keep up – tomorrow.

“Yes, that clarity will be very helpful to them,” Mr. Blair said, coyly. Nudged to explain, he added only “I’m not going to get out ahead of my own budget,” referencing the April 16 federal budget date, and that “we need to do more and doing more is going to require us to spend more.”

It’s a good sign that Ottawa might finally be stepping up in a real way.

Opinion: Canada must empty its cupboards for Ukraine

If we do not move quickly now, we will regret not doing enough for decades to come

www.theglobeandmail.com

Some other insights from the article

We have stuff and we can send stuff. Our stuff needs replacement in any case.

We can make a much bigger difference, and we can do it quickly. For starters, we need to raid the cupboards: If it still works, we should give it to them. If it doesn’t, we should fix it and send it to them. If they can retrofit it better than we can, we should pack it up and send it to them.

While National Defence will not get into specifics of its ammunition stockpiles, it did tell me that Canada still has 103 Leopard 2 tanks: 74 combat units and 29 support systems.

...

The tanks are an ideal place to start, but there are other critical capabilities we can offer. As Mr. Blair himself says, our military is struggling as it is: “Our stocks are very low, the serviceability of a lot of our equipment is a real challenge for us.”

“We have gone in and raided the pantry,” Mr. Blair told me, adding that there are simply no artillery shells or anti-air missiles left to give.

But that’s not quite true. Speaking to a military source recently, I was told that there has been a willingness from the generals to give more – but there is a fear that if critical equipment is donated, it will never be replaced.

Maybe the budget will offer some clues?


Procurement, procurement, procurement.

we need to start placing big orders for equipment that can be made inside Ukraine itself – drones and anti-air technology, in particular. The more orders we place, the more Ukrainian industry can scale up and do the research-and-development that will be necessary to overcome a better-resourced foe. Organizations such as the Ukrainian World Congress are already financing this work, and could use more help.

It does seem that this message has also reached Mr. Blair, who was in Kyiv last month. The minister told me he made a handshake deal with a Ukrainian counterpart to purchase drones directly from Ukrainian industry and donate them to the military. Mr. Blair added that he went back to the Ukraine Defence Contact Group’s drone coalition, of which Canada is a member, to get other countries on-board with the plan.

For any of our aid to be truly effective, though, we need to blast through the red tape. Mr. Blair confesses that Canada’s bureaucracy is hobbling our efforts to help Ukraine. “Because of my procurement processes, it’s easier for me to contribute money to the drone coalition, and use some of the procurement processes that our partners are using,” Mr. Blair said.

We also need to create better exemptions to Canada’s stringent export controls, important considering our record of selling military gear to repressive regimes. It is paradoxical to force Ukraine to jump through hoops to justify its need to defend itself.

But Blair's boss is unlikely to be helpful

I asked Mr. Trudeau about reforms that would make it easier for the Canadian defence industry to sell weapons to governments abroad, including Ukraine. He responded that while some may want to reduce those rules “even if it means selling missiles to the bad guys, I’m not going to do that.” Unfortunately, absent real reforms, that means we will have trouble helping the good guys, too.

And dollars to donuts he is not going to change rules on funneling funds to political advantage regionally.

Finally, we need to ramp up our own production. Given that this war could stretch on for years to come, with the Baltic countries possibly next in Moscow’s crosshairs, we cannot be caught with empty stockpiles again. Mr. Blair lamented that rebuilding Canada’s defence industrial base could take “two, two-and-a-half years to ramp up production, even if we’re able to get all the money and all the plans.”

Two to two and a half years .... with an election due in one and a half years.

Trudeau loses the election and Poilievre gets the benefit - ain't gonna happen?

....


Related thoughts

Why drones?

And Productivity and Investment.

....

Drones first

Why drones? Why are drones so much a feature of this war and why are they getting the attention of the professionals around the world?

Because....

equipment that can be made inside Ukraine itself – drones and anti-air technology

They are relatively simple and easy to manufacture and can be made from a wide variety of materials. They are not constrained by the supplied of heavily engineered materials in the way that, for example, the Extended Range Cannon Artillery guns are.

US Army Cancels Extended Range Cannon Artillery Program

The US Army has canceled its Extended Range Cannon Artillery program following a failed prototyping effort last year.

www.thedefensepost.com

It is not just Canada that would face a 2.5 year ramp up process to start delivering those systems.

Even tank production and LAV production lines are challenged to come up to speed in a hurry. Same for aircraft.

about 156 aircraft per year

Lockheed executive vice president for aeronautics Greg Ulmer recently forecast that the F-35 program will have a stable production rate goal of about 156 aircraft per year for at least the next five years. The F-35A has been operational with the Air Force since 2016

Long range missiles and UAVs can be built faster and cheaper and get into the fight sooner to greater effect.

The same goes for armoured vehicles that can be built off of frames that roll of assembly lines in their thousands hundreds daily.

The Canadian auto industry produced more than 814,200 light commercial vehicles, just under 288,250 passenger vehicles, and about 12,500 heavy trucks in 2021.

Canada vehicle production 2023 | Statista

The Canadian auto industry produced about 1,159,000 light commercial vehicles, just under 377,000 passenger vehicles, and about 17,530 heavy trucks in 2023.

www.statista.com

And that was in a bad year
....

Second issue - Productivity

Defence production is merely a singular case in point as regards Canadian productivity

John Ivison: Canada's economy desperately needs shock treatment after this Liberal government

Lack of business investment is the main culprit. Canadians are digging holes with shovels while our competitors are buying excavators.

nationalpost.com

Senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers ... was right to sound the alarm about a subject — Canada’s waning productivity — on which the federal government’s performance has been lacklustre at best.

She was explicit that government policy is partly to blame, pointing out that businesses need more certainty to invest with confidence. Government incentives and regulatory approaches that change year to year do not inspire confidence, she said.

That highlighted bit and only that...

It is the inclination of all Canadian Governments to react to every headline with another headline and they create the other headline by rolling out another policy-du-jour.

For business even a bad policy that persists is better than an ever changing policy.

 

[Kirkhill]

PS - I was right the first time - Thousands of Roshel Senator type frames per day

814,200 Light Commercial Vehicles / 365 days = 2230 vehicles per day. And that was in a year where sales were down 20% from the previous due to the pandemic.

The difference is over 200,000 vehicles. The industry has the capacity to supply that difference to Ukraine annually. 200,000 platforms like this



The VAMPIRE system in the middle is interesting given that Canada builds the truck, builds Wescam EO turrets and has something like 80,000 70mm rocket motors in stock with the ability to produce more at Magellan in Winnipeg.

 

[Good2Golf]

What ever happened to the Saudi LAV700's are they built? Delivered? Paid for?

Some of them are in Yemen…

Footage of Canadian LAVs in Yemen raises new questions about Saudi arms deal

Images of what appear to be Canadian-made light armoured vehicles (LAV) captured or destroyed by Houthi rebels during recent fighting in the borderlands between Yemen and Saudi Arabia are triggering fresh calls for Ottawa to cancel its multibillion arms deal with Riyadh. Critics of the $15-billio

www.rcinet.ca

 

[suffolkowner]

Some of them are in Yemen…
View attachment 84119

Footage of Canadian LAVs in Yemen raises new questions about Saudi arms deal

Images of what appear to be Canadian-made light armoured vehicles (LAV) captured or destroyed by Houthi rebels during recent fighting in the borderlands between Yemen and Saudi Arabia are triggering fresh calls for Ottawa to cancel its multibillion arms deal with Riyadh. Critics of the $15-billio

www.rcinet.ca

seems like its unsure which LAV variants they were though

 

[MilEME09]

seems like its unsure which LAV variants they were though

700 is what Saudis have, which has a wide variety of turrets and sub varients.

 

[suffolkowner]

700 is what Saudis have, which has a wide variety of turrets and sub varients.

do they not have thousands of other GDLS LAV's predating the 700's though?

 

[MilEME09]

do they not have thousands of other GDLS LAV's predating the 700's though?

Saudi national guard has old LAV2(bison) and lav25s as well. Easy to tell the difference

 

[Good2Golf]

Saudi national guard has old LAV2(bison) and lav25s as well. Easy to tell the difference

Yup, at least a few of those were 700s smoked in Yemen

 

[MilEME09]

Yup, at least a few of those were 700s smoked in Yemen

Poor tactics will get any kit blown up, its why we need the full domain of protection for our forces, counter UAV, GBAD etc

 

[Good2Golf]

Poor tactics will get any kit blown up, its why we need the full domain of protection for our forces, counter UAV, GBAD etc

…don’t forget MSHORAD…that comes conveniently on vehicle made in Canada…

 

[Kirkhill]

…don’t forget MSHORAD…that comes conveniently on vehicle made in Canada…

The MOOG turret can fit on ANY pickup truck, not just our 8x8 version.

Moog Announces Reconfigurable Integrated-weapons Platform (RIwP®) Award For U.S. Army M-SHORAD Increment 1 Program - Frag Out! Magazine

Moog Inc. announced that its Space and Defense Segment was selected by Leonardo DRS to supply 28 Reconfigurable Integrated-weapons Platform (RIwP) turrets for the U.S. Army’s Maneuver Short-Range Air Defense Increment 1 (M-SHORAD Inc. 1) program. M-SHORAD Inc. 1 is designed around the U.S. Army...

fragoutmag.com

 

[GK .Dundas]

I think they definitely understand but until there is that one way chat from someone bigger and stronger, as Pierre endured during the 70's,then its business as usual. What did Pierre wind up buying after the chat. Oh thats right 128 Leopards,138 Hornets , 18 Aurora's and 6 Halifax Frigates and new trucks.

It was a conversation between friends and equals, Schmidt was someone who Trudeau respected.
I get the distinct impression that his son doesn't have that advantage.
The truly sad part about this is that this part of the genetic make-up of almost all our political leadership.
An inability to to view harsh reality and the ability to delude ourselves that there always will be somebody else to do the dirty and messy stuff and the heavy lifting..
Welcome to the Canadian mindset
I have hope that it may change there are glimpses here and there.

 

[KevinB]

The MOOG turret can fit on ANY pickup truck, not just our 8x8 version.

View attachment 84121

Moog Announces Reconfigurable Integrated-weapons Platform (RIwP®) Award For U.S. Army M-SHORAD Increment 1 Program - Frag Out! Magazine

Moog Inc. announced that its Space and Defense Segment was selected by Leonardo DRS to supply 28 Reconfigurable Integrated-weapons Platform (RIwP) turrets for the U.S. Army’s Maneuver Short-Range Air Defense Increment 1 (M-SHORAD Inc. 1) program. M-SHORAD Inc. 1 is designed around the U.S. Army...

fragoutmag.com

It however is not practical on much smaller than the 8x8 LAV 3+ or a tracked APC/IFV.

The gun needs a stable chassis.

 

[OldSolduer]

It was a conversation between friends and equals, Schmidt was someone who Trudeau respected.
I get the distinct impression that his son doesn't have that advantage.
The truly sad part about this is that this part of the genetic make-up of almost all our political leadership.
An inability to to view harsh reality and the ability to delude ourselves that there always will be somebody else to do the dirty and messy stuff and the heavy lifting..
Welcome to the Canadian mindset
I have hope that it may change there are glimpses here and there.

You are speaking of the average Canadian - smug and looking down their noses at America....

 

[Kirkhill]

It however is not practical on much smaller than the 8x8 LAV 3+ or a tracked APC/IFV.

The gun needs a stable chassis.

That depends on whether it is decided to mount a gun and the caliber of the gun if mounted, no?

 

[GK .Dundas]

You are speaking of the average Canadian - smug and looking down their noses at America....

Or the Brits or the....fill in blank here.

 

[KevinB]

That depends on whether it is decided to mount a gun and the caliber of the gun if mounted, no?

True but the 30mm is the only one with a viable round. Missiles are quite expensive against some targets…